INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 17, 2020, 4:14 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, June 18, 2020  



8:30 AM ET.  U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons)



8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous -43.1)



                       Prices Paid (previous 3.2)



                       Employment (previous -15.3)



                       New Orders (previous -25.7)



                       Prices Received (previous -3.1)



                       Delivery Times (previous -6.7)



                       Inventories (previous 11.7)



                       Shipments (previous -30.3)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg



                       Continuing Claims



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators



                       Leading Index, M/M% (previous -4.4%)



                       Leading Index (previous 98.8)



                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous -8.9%)



                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +4.1%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



Friday, June 19, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions



                       Current Account (USD) (previous -109.82B)



10:00 AM ET. May Regional & State Employment & Unemployment


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's gap crossing at 26,938.05 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If the Dow resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,603.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's gap crossing at 26,938.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. Third resistance is the 87% retracement level of the  February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.29. First support is Monday's low crossing at 24,843.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,603.05.  



The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Multiple closes below Monday's low crossing at 9368.25 are needed to confirm that  a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 10,140.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at  9368.25. Second support is  the May 27th low crossing at 9167.00.    



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, last-Monday's high crossing at 3216.70 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2921.61 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing  at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2921.61. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 2804.20.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 18/32's at 176-08.

  

September T-bonds posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 168-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-26 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-26. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 180-28. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 171-27. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 167-18.



September T-notes closed up 50-pts. at 138.190.



September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.056 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the April 21st high crossing at 139.160 would mark an upside breakout of the April-June trading range. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 139.160. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.081. Second support is June's low crossing at 136.220. Third support is the March 25th low crossing at 136.200.         



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $34.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at $34.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $31.43. 



August heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $107.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $119.59. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is Monday's low crossing at $107.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.16. 



August unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish with additional strength on Thursday. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 109.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 126.32. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.79. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 109.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.40.  



August Henry natural gas was higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, long-term support crossing at 1.519 on the weekly continuation chart is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.888 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.888. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.055. First support is today's low crossing at 1.688. Second support is the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1.519.          



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this year's decline, March's low crossing at 94.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.67. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.99. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.87. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.70. 



The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 113.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 113.97. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.21.

 

The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2418 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3044 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.2813. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 1.3044. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2418. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2161.



The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0465 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0695. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0465. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0397.



The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 73.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at76.04 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is Monday's low crossing at 73.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.15. 



The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0929 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 0.0945 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0940. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0929. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912. Third support is March's low crossing at 0.0904.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends the April-June trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, the June 1st high crossing at $1761.00 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $1789.00. First support is the June 5th low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.



July silver closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 18.405 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.587 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 18.405. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 18.950. First support is Monday's low crossing at 17.015. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.587.  



July copper posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 250.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 270.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 277.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 250.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 240.73. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed up $0.01-cent at 3.30. 



July corn closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.23 3/4 would temper the neutral to friendly outlook. If July renews the rally off April's low, the April 7th high crossing at $3.40 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the April 7th high crossing at 3.40 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.23 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.    



July wheat closed up $0.07 1/2-cents at $4.88 1/2.  



July wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the  RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at $4.83 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.08 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.08 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.19 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $4.87 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at $4.83 3/4.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.05 1/4-cents at $4.33.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the  20-day moving average crossing at $4.54 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.69 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $4.30 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.   



July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.05 1/4-cents at $5.20 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4 is the next upside target. If July extends last-week's decline, the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02.        



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $8.71 1/2.



July soybeans posted a key reversal up on Wednesday while extending the two-week old trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to  higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.56 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $8.75 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April-decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.56 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.50. Third support is May's low crossing at $8.28 1/2.      



July soybean meal closed down $0.20 at $287.70. 



July soybean meal closed slightly lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $292.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $292.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $294.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.30. Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.      



July soybean oil closed up 9-pts. At 28.08. 



July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's upside reversal. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are  possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average  crossing at 26.97 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 28.47. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.97. Second support is the May 14th low crossing at 25.70.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.45 at $49.60. 



July hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $47.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $52.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.36. First support is today's low  crossing at $$48.18. Second support is weekly support crossing at $47.81.    



August cattle closed up $0.20 at $96.70. 



August cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. If August extends Monday's decline, the May 5th low crossing at $91.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is Monday's low crossing at $93.58. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at $91.20.    



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.75-cents at $132.63. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off Monday's low, June's high crossing at $136.73 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $128.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $136.73. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at $128.68. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.89 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Tuesday's decline, April's low crossing at 22.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.04 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted.               



July sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.06 is the next downside target.          

Comments
By metmike - June 18, 2020, 12:19 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


The big rain events have started in the N.Plains/U.Midwest and will gradually sink southeast the next week or so. This is the bearish part of the forecast for grains.

Heat this week in the rain free areas will cause some deterioration. Much of the Cornbelt has dried out, with the S.Plains having a flash drought........hopefully rains on the way.

Looking to warm up late in week 2 with an upper level ridge building in the Plains. If the ridge strengthens enough to shut down rains, it can turn pretty bullish..

The heat ridge is not affect the east/south in week 2, so its not maximizing the bullishness for ng.

Latest weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/53970/