INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 19, 2020, 8:02 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, June 19, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions



                       Current Account (USD) (previous -109.82B)



10:00 AM ET. May Regional & State Employment & Unemployment


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted  territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at  9381.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 10140.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 9381.75. Second support is the May 27th low crossing at 9167.00.



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3112.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high the 50-day moving average crossing at 2938.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2938.27. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 2804.20. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 174-29 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-26. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 180-28. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 171-27. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-March rally crossing at 167-18.



September T-notes were slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the May 15th high crossing at 139.135 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 138.070 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at 139.075. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 139.135. First support is June's low crossing at 136.220. Second support is the March 18th low crossing at 133.225.   



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil was higher in overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $34.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at $34.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $31.67.  



August heating oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $124.17. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing  at $103.46.   



August unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $109.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $128.67. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $109.16. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.08.  



August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the  day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 1.515 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.863 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.803. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.863. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.688. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $94.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $97.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.89. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.88. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.71. 



The September Euro was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $114.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of  March's decline crossing at $114.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.33. 



The September British Pound was lower overnight marking a downside breakout of the March-May uptrend line. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the aforementioned uptrend line crossing near 1.2448 would signal a short-term trend change has taken place. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2593 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2593. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2745. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2436. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2170.



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0483 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0695. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0483. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0404. 



The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 73.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off  March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is Monday's low crossing at 73.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing  at 72.24.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 0.0945 is the  next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0929 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0940. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0929. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher in overnight trading as it extends the April-June trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, is the June 1st high crossing at $1761.00 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 1st high crossing at $1761.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $1787.50. First support is the June 5th low crossing at $1671.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $1661.00.  



July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a  steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $17.015 would confirm a downside breakout of the May-June head-and-shoulders top. If July renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.075 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $18.950. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.075. First support is Monday's low crossing at $17.015. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.679. 



July copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7793 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5261 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 2.7000. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7793. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.5261. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4209. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when  the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.23 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.34 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $3.47 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.23 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at $3.09.     



July wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, last-September's low  crossing at $4.68 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.05 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.05 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.17 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $4.80 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.83 3/4.



July Kansas City wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.51 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.51 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.67 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $4.28 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $4.27 1/4.     



July Minneapolis wheat was lower in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling hinting sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 6th high crossing at $5.29 3/4 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.17 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the June 6th high crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $5.48 1/4. First support is the May 18th low crossing at $5.04 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.02.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.50 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.78 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.59 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.50 1/2.      



July soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $295.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $292.80. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $295.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $286.80 Second support is May's low crossing at $281.50.     



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off  April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 28.68. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.32. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 25.70. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.45 at $49.60. 



July hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $47.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $56.23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $52.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.36. First support is today's low  crossing at $$48.18. Second support is weekly support crossing at $47.81.    



August cattle closed up $0.20 at $96.70. 



August cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. If August extends Monday's decline, the May 5th low crossing at $91.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is Monday's low crossing at $93.58. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at $91.20.    



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.75-cents at $132.63. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off Monday's low, June's high crossing at $136.73 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $128.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $136.73. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at $128.68. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.89 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 9.22 is the next downside target. 



July cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Tuesday's decline, April's low crossing at 22.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.04 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted.               



July sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two weeks. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.           



July cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 64.11 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 57.06 is the next downside target.          

Comments
By metmike - June 19, 2020, 11:22 a.m.
Like Reply

Thank you Tallpine!


We have MORE heat in the week 2 forecast! That is pushing ng higher.

The  heat in the Plains, spilling into the Midwest is bullish grains for the moment.  Bearish rains coming the next few days are keeping things from going up too much. 

The last GFS operational run had an impressive dome but the more reliable ensembles  don't agree on that.