Fabulous Fathers day to you! Summer started yesterday.
Sunday update: Where will the heat ridge that develops in Week 2 go? How long will it last? Alot of variance between solutions. Not quite as hot as Friday at the end of 2 weeks.
Decent rains coming for grains,... for some key areas, especially the Central Cornbelt. So far, rains have been disappointing. ..but more to come in the next week.
June 17th update: Early La Nina right now! My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/
Latest COVID-19 numbers. ...........went up last week.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52243/
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Hot out West, pleasant start Midwest but the heat moves east big time at the end of this week!
Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7
Hot West, shifts bodily/big time eastward!
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Surface Weather features day 3-7:
Slow moving front(s) the source for "some" Cornbelt rains the next week. Cooler air, especially Upper Midwest....early in this period, then heating up.
Rains will not be enough in many places.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
WELCOME rains coming to much of the Cornbelt...........but some places will get short changed.
Lack of 70+ dew points is keeping amounts lower than they would be when low level moisture is more abundant.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971
Excessive rain potential.
Lack of 70+ dew points is keeping amounts lower than they would be when low level moisture is more abundant.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions
Current Day 1 Forecast Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19 |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts |
Current Day 2 Forecast Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19 |
Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 3 Forecast |
Current Dew Points
Turning more humid but still low humidity for June right now!
Lack of 70+ dew points is keeping rain amounts lower!
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
(3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"
Soilmoisture anomaly:
LOOK HOW FAST WE DRIED OUT IN THE S.PLAINS.............FLASH DROUGHT!
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Drought Monitor maps:
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY! For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.
April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.
May: 7: Drought increased a bit from KS westward.
May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.
May 21: A bit more drought in ND.
May 28: Not much change
June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.
June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!
June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
Last Sunday: Majority DO have a heat ridge but the placement is all over the map. The average of all these offsetting solutions does not necessarily represent most of them. Great uncertainty. Decent chance for a heat ridge............somewhere.
Wednesday: Impressive heat ridge building on the majority of members late week 2. This is the hottest model right now. Would turn bullish for ng and/or grains if this is the right trend.
Thursday: Heat ridge not quite as strong today but a huge disparity in solutions. A minority have a major heat ridge, where the majority have the complete opposite(weak troughing).
Friday: Very strong agreement on a heat ridge/dome....................somewhere. Huge disparity on location. Slight majority favor the S.Plains to S.Rockies... ..on this model.
Saturday: 588 height contour was at Chicago yesterday, now, with the weaker and farther southwest heat ridge, it's 300 miles to the southwest , just north of St. Louis. As a result, the average of all the solutions, noted below is COOLER for the Midwest. However, close to half/50% of the individual solutions have the center of a major heat ridge dominating much of the Midwest. So there is big time uncertainty and we could get hotter again on models in a flash.
Sunday: Not as hot as Friday. The average is composed of individual solutions that have a heat ridge in many different places. Uncertainty and probably transient.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 06, 2020 12 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)
Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:
Saturday: Several members have a huge dome.............others northwest type flow in the Midwest to Northeast.
Sunday: Same disparity without many solutions having the center of the heat ridge in the Midwest. ...........where active flow/perturbations could trigger decent rains.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Last Wednesday: Not as hot in the E/SE as the Canadian model.
Friday: Positive anomalies shift to off the Pacific NW Coast and Southeast Canada. Weak anomaly in most of the US by late week 2 does NOT favor heat in the Midwest!
Sunday: Week 2 is heating up now. New positive anomaly week 2 in Southeast Canada to Upper Lakes/Northeast.
Wednesday: Negative anomaly at 1 week over the Midwest/Great Lakes.....very cool temps. Positive anomaly in Central Canada at 1 week, shifting south to the Hudson Bay area at 2 weeks, so the Upper Midwest and N.Plains will heat up........on this model.
Thursday: Just like Wednesday's solution! The heat will shift from the West to the N.Plains during week 2.
Friday: Negative anomaly at 7 days is over the Great Lakes with its cool air. Replaced quickly at 15 days by a positive anomaly that will have heat, centered from far SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. July will start out HOT in the NorthCentral USA back westward.
Saturday: We should note that major positive anomalies in June are heat ridges in the middle latitudes. They are really moving around right now with a transient type pattern. At day 7, a big one in Eastern Canada, another just off the Pac Northwest Coast. At day 14, in SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. The Gulf Coast is one of the few places with average to modestly negative anomalies. This suggests that the heat will be farther north. Though the models have lots of rain during this period, if we saw negative anomalies increase along the Gulf Coast, they could impede the deep moisture return northward and we would see a drier heat from the west vs air masses with more of a south to north component, loaded with juicy GOM moisture. The day 14 pattern is clearly very warm to hot(at times) for much of the country. Not as hot as yesterday but even air masses coming from S.Canada with any cold fronts will be warm and quite dry.
1 week out below
2 weeks out below
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Long range outlook............updated June 17th
My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!
Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.
Total precip anomaly for Jun so far v root zone soil moisture. Hopefully these advertised rain events happen. Root zone not an issue currently for the majority. #corn#soybeans