Maybe, I shouldn’t do this, but I am sticking out my neck and make some predictions about what to expect during the next few weeks.
Pres Trump, as of last week, has now officially started his election campaign. It came at a time when businesses started opening up again, and families were allowed to visit parks, beaches and restaurants again.
What will his opposition do to stop him from being re-elected?
I predict there will be an immediate “alarming” increase in Covid19 infections.,.. enough to start the lockdowns all over again… maybe even more brutal lockdowns than before.
Actually, this kind of news has already surfaced, just one day after his first campaign rally. That didn’t take very long!!
There will be more unemployment… more economic misery.
And, of course, it’s Trump’s fault for not stopping the virus from the beginning, and even more importantly, for causing needless deaths by pushing for a premature “opening”.
The stock market:
After the initial stock market crash when the virus first surfaced, the market has staged a remarkable rally. This is another bragging point for Pres. Trump. Most likely, there will be another market crash, similar to the Feb-Mch decline, to show the public that not all is well under his presidency. A new wave of lockdowns could very well be the trigger.
For the last 2 weeks, the news has been full of stories about nationwide “police defunding” proposals. You don’t have to be a genius to figure out that decreased police force will result in increased crime. Yet, it’s a great talking point for politicians, who want to cater to certain segments of the population. Some cities have already begun reducing the ranks of their police force, and crime has already gone up in these cities. Expect more crime during the next few weeks.
the BLM movement:
The whole country was disgusted by the way G Floyd was killed. Protests had to be expected. No doubt, this subject does demand discussions, with all segments of society participating, with the goal of finding solutions (be it better police regulations, better employment opportunities for minorities, or strengthening family life in urban areas and keeping youngsters off the street).
However, it’s no longer about George Floyd. Black Lives Matter founder Patrisse Cullors has publicly stated that their goal is to remove Trump from office. She has repeatedly called Trump a “Hitler”. In other words, the current BLM protests are not about racial injustice,… they are intended to create chaos and stop Tromp from re-election
She, and her co-founders have stated, as early as 2015, that they are “intensively trained in Marxism”. They understand how to use public disturbances to further their ideology.
So, one could say that BLM is a political party, representing communism. And they are well-financed. One of G. Soros’ organizations has already given them $33 mill.
Recent research shows that only 1/6 of the BLM protesters are black. The protests I have seen in our area contained mostly young white folks.
In the 2-week CHAZ event in Seattle, BLM joined forces with Antifa, a violent group idealizing communism.
So you have the combined forces of BLM, Antifa, and a large section of your young white kids (who have already been indoctrinated into the benefits of socialism)… a huge army of far-left-leaning protesters, who will not hesitate to loot, riot, burn down buildings, and attack the police. There will be more anarchy, much more than we have seen up to now.
Historic statues are being toppled, the US flag is being burned…some groups want to abolish the National Anthem, and later on the US flag.
As said before, this is not about George Floyd… and it may not even be about removing Trump…this is about taking down the USA, as we know it.
I predict, we will have a rather ugly summer…. Even Seattle’s mayor would hesitate to call it a “summer of love”
PS: these comments are not to be considered as investment advice. Quite likely, my predictions are quite wrong ( I hope so )
Thanks a ton Gunter.
I agree with much of this but will add that the new cases have been going up for a couple of weeks now.
Maybe half of them are from the more than double increase in tests.
However, some states, like Texas are getting really bad. This is independent of Trumps Situation.
I agree with a lot of what you say here.. I think another lockdown, at least in some parts of the country, is nearly inevitable. I also think the vast majority of citizens have had it with lockdowns so an attempt, at least in most parts of the country, could have interesting ramifications.
I think many/most have reassessed the risks of Covid and are not nearly as scared of it as they once were. Yes, there are high risk groups, but the vast majority of us are not in those groups. Many can catch it and not know. Others can catch it and have mild symptoms. Others, more severe, but survival is extremely likely. Most are thinking "Take care of the high risk and leave the rest of us to get on with it".
Add in the inconsistencies in which "activities" are restricted or at least frowned upon, and many are just left shaking their heads. Attempted lockdowns will be interesting.
Also, as I said in April, we'll see a few more racial injustices before the election. It's amazing how well behaved we are, race wise, until 6 months or so before a presidential election.
I wonder what the re-action would be if I joined a BLM protest with a sign that was this
All lives matter
Looting is a criminal act
Burning is a criminal act
Violence is a criminal act
Are you a law abiding citizen??
I would need a rather large sign but I think I could make such a sign