Weather Friday
20 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:29 p.m.

6th day of Summer 2020!


Friday: The weather is NOT Bearish natural gas but the EIA report was the most bearish in history. Location of the heat ridge in July is a key.  Recently, its NOT been in the East and South where tons of people live. This will be imperative for any potential, against the trend ng rallies. The heat been in the Plains where not many people live. Week 2 really strengthens the heat ridge/dome in the S.Plains with 100+ temps in July. How much will it expand and where will determine affects on ng and grains.


Decent rains coming for grains during the next 10 days.  Some areas will miss. MORE heat in week 2 is more bullish but there's just too much rain right now to get very bullish. Location of the dome in July will make the difference in price of grains in double digits!

There's a chance for conditions from  the Gulf  to  not be ideal for moisture transport northward if the flow has enough westerly component later in July vs from the south. IF that would happen, THEN it becomes bullish grains.

Corn rating was +1% beans -2%  Spring Wheat -6%!



June 26th update:   Early La Nina right now!     My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!

                                       Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/



Latest COVID-19 numbers. ...........going up.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52243/


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.


Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/45623/


 

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"      


Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   



 

https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature


https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature



 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.

 

                                    

                    


            

                           

Comments
By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:36 p.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:

 

Heat that started out West, spreads eastward across the country during this period. Hot for much of the country, especially in the Plains and northern tier(vs average)

Cooling Northwest  USA.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                                         

                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:37 p.m.
Like Reply

Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7


Heat that was out West, shifts bodily/big time eastward!

Compared to average, temperature the temperature disparity will be greatest along the northern tier.......Big cooling Northwest US.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

                                    


                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:38 p.m.
Like Reply

Surface Weather features day 3-7:


Slow moving/stalled front, the source for "some" Cornbelt rains the next week.  

Rains will not be enough in some places(because the heat will be gobbling up soil moisture at an accelerated pace) but above average in many places

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

                                    

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:40 p.m.
Like Reply

Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


 New rains developing now. T-storm clusters move from northwest to southeast from the N.Plains/Upper Midwest to the Central Plains/Western cornbelt then Central Cornbelt to the Eastern belt.

This will be the pattern into early July. 

For this time of year, a better than usual rain forecast/map!


Day 1 below:


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

  

                                    


By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:42 p.m.
Like Reply

Excessive rain potential.


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

  

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    

                                    

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:42 p.m.
Like Reply

Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
               
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
         
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                F
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                        

                                    

                                    


            

                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:43 p.m.
Like Reply

Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/prec

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Learn About Daily Precipitation

Static mapAnimated mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

Learn About Weekly Precipitation

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:45 p.m.
Like Reply

Current Dew Points

Deep moisture  is returning northward with gusto now.  Note some 70 degree dew points.

Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:46 p.m.
Like Reply

Soilmoisture anomaly:


These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif


By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:46 p.m.
Like Reply

Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.


April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

May: 7:  Drought increased a bit from KS westward.

May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.

May 21:  A bit more drought in ND.

May 28: Not much change

June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.

June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!

June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.

June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).

The maps below are updated on Thursdays.


      https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/              

   

Drought Monitor for conus

                                        

                                                                             

                                        

Drought Monitor for conus

       

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:49 p.m.
Like Reply

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:



Last Wednesday: Impressive heat ridge building on the majority of members late week 2. This is the hottest model right now. Would turn bullish for ng and/or grains if this is the right trend.

Thursday: Heat ridge not quite as strong today but a huge disparity in solutions. A minority have a major heat ridge, where the majority have the complete opposite(weak troughing).

Friday: Very strong agreement on a heat ridge/dome....................somewhere. Huge disparity on location. Slight majority favor the S.Plains to S.Rockies... ..on this model.

Saturday:  588 height contour was at Chicago yesterday, now, with the weaker and farther southwest heat ridge, it's 300 miles to the southwest , just north of St. Louis. As a result, the average of all the solutions, noted below is COOLER for the Midwest. However, close to half/50% of the individual solutions have the center of a major heat ridge dominating much of the Midwest. So there is big time uncertainty and we could get hotter again on models in a flash. 

Sunday: Not as hot as Friday. The average is composed of individual solutions that have a heat ridge in many different places. Uncertainty and probably transient. 

Tuesday: After being cooler the last several days, the Canadian model is a bit hotter/stronger with the upper level ridge in the S.Plains. The 588 dm height contour is north of St. Louis again about where it was back on Saturday and farther north than than the previous 2 days.

Wedneday: MUCH hotter today and this model is the HOTTEST! 588 contour is now NORTH of Chicago and on day 16 we have our first 594 dm contour in Arkansas with the major heat ridge. A minority of solutions still disagree with this and the other models are not nearly this bullish but are leaning in this direction.

Thursday: Major heat ridge southern half, with strong agreement. Fast, active flow northern tier.This is a very warm to hot pattern for much of the country! How far south will rains go into the rain defeating heat ridge?

Friday: Not as bullish with the heat ridge at Noon Friday. Jet stream farther south. It will probably look different over the weekend.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 11, 2020 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:52 p.m.
Like Reply

Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run:


Saturday: Several members have a huge dome.............others northwest type flow in the Midwest to Northeast.

Sunday: Same disparity without many solutions having the center of the heat ridge in the Midwest. ...........where active flow/perturbations could trigger decent rains. 

Tuesday: Active northwest flow in the Midwest on the majority of solutions for the GFS Ensemble. .....but several have the heat ridge stronger shoving the jet stream out, with more heat as a result. 

Wednesday: Heat ridge Southwest to S.Plains on many solutions but still northwest flow over with perturbations and rain dropping from the N/C.Plains into the Midwest. Will the heat ridge continue to build and shove the jet stream and northwest flow farther north like the Canadian model? Or is the Canadian model out to lunch?

Thursday: Big heat ridge/dome but location is uncertain. S.Plains is a very good bet but also points northeast to east could have a heat ridge.

Friday: This model is MORE bullish with the idea of the heat ridge building northeast. It also will probably look different early next week.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

                                    

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 1:55 p.m.
Like Reply

GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast



Last Wednesday: Not as hot in the E/SE as the Canadian model.

Friday: Positive anomalies shift to off the Pacific NW Coast and Southeast Canada. Weak anomaly in most of the US by late week 2 does NOT favor heat in the Midwest!

Sunday: Week 2 is heating up now. New positive anomaly week 2 in Southeast Canada to Upper Lakes/Northeast.

Wednesday: Negative anomaly at 1 week over the Midwest/Great Lakes.....very cool temps.  Positive anomaly in Central Canada at 1 week, shifting south to the Hudson Bay area at 2 weeks, so the Upper Midwest and N.Plains will heat up........on this model.

Thursday: Just like Wednesday's solution! The heat will shift from the West to the N.Plains during week 2.

Friday: Negative anomaly at 7 days is over the Great Lakes with its cool air. Replaced quickly at 15 days by a positive anomaly that will have heat, centered from far SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. July will start out HOT in the NorthCentral USA back westward.

Saturday: We should note that major positive anomalies in June are heat ridges in the middle latitudes.  They are really moving around right now with a transient type pattern. At day 7, a big one in Eastern Canada, another just off the Pac Northwest Coast. At day 14, in SouthCentral Canada to the N.Plains. The Gulf Coast is one of the few places with average to modestly negative anomalies. This suggests that the heat will be farther north. Though the models have lots of rain during this period, if  we saw negative anomalies increase along the Gulf Coast, they could impede the deep moisture return northward and we would see a drier heat from the west vs air masses with more of a south to north component, loaded with juicy GOM moisture. The day 14 pattern is clearly  very warm to hot(at times) for much of the country. Not as hot as yesterday but even air masses coming from S.Canada with any cold fronts will be warm and quite dry. 

Tuesday: Strong Positive anomaly  at the end of week 1 around the Hudson Bay means heat in S.Canada to just south of the border. It migrates west and weakens in SouthCentral Canada with a weak negative anomaly in the Southeast US which makes heat unlikely in the Southeast US if that verifies.

Wednesday: Positive anomaly center around the N.Great Lakes area makes heat in that area a given. It will be widespread from the N.Plains to the Northeast. Temperature in the Southeast will be closer to normal. 

Thursday: End of week 2 positive anomaly will determine the extent and strength of a major heat ridge. S.Plains look most likely from weather models but the anomaly map is not that helpful. 

Friday: Anomaly positive in week 2....on this model is pretty favorable for ridging in the S.Plains to extend northeast across the Midwest to the Northeast. Slight weakness Pac Northwest and Gulf Coast.


1 week out below

https://www.psl.noaa.gov//map/images/ens/z500anom_f168_nhbg.gif



https://www.psl.noaa.gov//map/images/ens/t850anom_f168_nhbg.gif



2 weeks out below

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


                                   

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                    ++++++++++++++++++++++++

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 2 p.m.
Like Reply


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t


Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.

                                    


Friday: Near 0 for the AO/NAO. However, the PNA is solidly positive. Warm/hot and dry in the West if often a result..........how far east would that be? Is this part of a La Nina signal?

Sunday: AO/NAO slightly negative. PNA solidly positive. Doesn't match that well with the actually weather maps/pattern.

Monday: Negative AO, slight negative NAO but the NAO starts solidly positive and crashes to negative during week 2. Could signal a pattern change.

Wednesday. Nothing noteworthy, especially with this being Summer and these indices work best with the northern stream in the Winter.

THursday: AO near 0. NAO bounces from negative to zero, some positive. PNA goes from positive to negative. SIgn of a pattern change with heat ridge building in the S.Plains to points east/northeastward??? We'll see

Friday: PNA dropping a bit could help pump heat ridge farther east?

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 2:01 p.m.
Like Reply

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.


Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

            

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 2:01 p.m.
Like Reply

Long range outlook............updated June 25th

 My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!        

                                       Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/52701/

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 2:02 p.m.
Like Reply

            

                            

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

                                    


            

                                    


          

                            

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

                                    


            

                

                                    


            

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 2:03 p.m.
Like Reply


Iowa Flood Center@IowaFloodCenter

·

June 1-22 rainfall amounts vary considerably by countywide average, ranging from 1 in. to above 10 in. Normal June precipitation varies between 4.3 in. to 5.3 in. IFC Researcher Antonio Arenas; Data source: https://water.weather.gov/precip/download.php

.


 

@NWSDesMoines

Image

                                    


                                    


            

                

                                                                                                    E

By metmike - June 26, 2020, 2:06 p.m.
Like Reply

I'm gaining confidence in a building heat ridge/dome late in week 2, from the S.Plains and points northeast and even east.

This will defeat rain making in a large area and create 100 degree heat in areas close to the center.

It could define the pattern for July!!!

            

            +++++++++++++++++++++++++

                                                                                                                  

                Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            

     

                By cutworm - June 25, 2020, 7:57 a.m.            

                                        

Eric Snodgrass Long range forecast 6-24-2020

Eric discusses heat in Siberia and July weather

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9UES87ClP8&feature=emb_rel_pause

                             +++++++++++++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            

            


                By metmike - June 25, 2020, 11:09 a.m.            

            

                                            

Another wonderful discussion from Eric

Thanks very much cutworm!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



By metmike - June 26, 2020, 5:19 p.m.
Like Reply

This forecast for the 2nd half of July would be mega bullish grains and ordinarily mega bullish natural gas. NG has the worst fundamentals in history but this much heat will be hard to ignore........if the models/forecast is correct.


    

Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 11 Jul 2020 to 24 Jul 2020
Updated: 26 Jun 2020

Please provide comments using the online survey.

Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability