KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, July 1, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 773.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -8.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 312.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3434.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -11.7%)
7:30 AM ET. June Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +577.8%)
8:15 AM ET. June ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous -2760K)
9:45 AM ET. June US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 39.8)
10:00 AM ET. May Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. May Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -2.9%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. June ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 43.1)
Prices Idx (previous 40.8)
Employment Idx (previous 32.1)
Inventories (previous 50.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 31.8)
Production Idx (previous 33.2)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 540.722M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.442M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 255.322M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.673M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 174.72M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.249M)
Refinery Usage (previous 74.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.348M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.058M)
11:00 AM ET. June Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 42.4)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes and economic forecast
4:00 PM ET. June Domestic Auto Industry Sales
N/A United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement enters into force
Thursday, July 2, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 538.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1162.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 518.7K)
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +2509K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 13.3%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.75)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous -0.29)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous -0.97%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +6.75%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.5)
Government Payrolls (previous -585K)
Private Payroll (previous +3094K)
Participation Rate (previous 60.8%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. May U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -49.41B)
Exports (USD) (previous 151.28B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -20.5%)
Imports (USD) (previous 200.69B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -13.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 1480K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -60K)
Continuing Claims (previous 19522000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -767K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET. June ISM-NY Report on Business
Business Index (previous 19.5)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous -13.0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -12.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -8.5%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3012B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +120B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, July 3, 2020
N/A U.S. Independence Day observed. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains following its best quarter since 1999. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 9728.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 10204.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 9728.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9454.43.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 posted their best quarterly performance in more than 20 year's.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3148.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews last-week's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at 2975.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3148.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2975.52. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 2925.70.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 176-20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the May 15th high crossing at 180-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 179-17. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 180-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 176-20. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.176 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the May 15th high crossing at 139.135 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 30th high crossing at 139.140. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.297. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.176.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $34.66.
August heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $112.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.54. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $125.34. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the reaction low crossing at $107.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.54.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $111.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $132.53. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79. First support is Monday's low crossing at $111.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.25.
August Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.759 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, psychological support crossing at 1.500 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.759. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.960. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.517. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.515.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.48 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $94.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $97.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.48. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.88. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.71.
The September Euro was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.84 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 10th high crossing at $114.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58. First support is June's low crossing at $111.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.84.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2525 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2525. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2745. First support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2170. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2083.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading as it extends June's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at 1.0497 would signal a downside breakout of June's trading range. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0659. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the June 12th low crossing at 1.0497. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0431.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target.If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.58 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 72.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.58.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 0.0912 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower due to profit taking in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1740.00 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1807.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1774.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1740.00.
September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the May-July trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.125 is the next upside target. Closes below June's low crossing at $17.175 would confirm a downside breakout of the May-July trading range. First resistance is June's high crossing at $19.035. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.125. First support is June's low crossing at $17.175. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.149.
September copper was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7818 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6341 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.7555. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7818. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6341. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4892.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight following Tuesday bullish planted acreage report from the USDA, which caught funds with a huge short position going into the report. Tuesday's short covering rally, which has spilled over int the overnight session continues to extend this week's short covering rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's short covering rally, the 38% retracement level of the July 2019-June 2020 decline crossing at $3.60 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.55 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the July 2019-June 2020 decline crossing at $3.60 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37 1/4. Second support is last-Friday's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off last-Friday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.07 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.19 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.79 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.
December Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, long-term support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.76 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.37 1/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at $4.12.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's short covering rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.39 1/2 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.39 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Tuesday's huge rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.06 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $8.88 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.06 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.60. Second support is June's low crossing at $8.45 3/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at $301.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $293.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $299.60. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $301.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $293.50 Second support is Monday's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 29.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.00. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 27.42.
Thanks tallpine!
Besides the USDA bullish shocker for corn, the weather forecast has been bullish too.
Same thing with natural gas but...........signs of the heat letting up later in week hit NG pretty hard early this morning.
This is mainly on the GFS products.
USDA report June 30, 2020
10 responses |
Started by metmike - June 29, 2020, 4:43 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54805/
Corn market
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/54792/
Wednesdays Weather: