@DDFalphaG/E Conditions Changes v Last Wk in #Corn & #Soybeans 
This is why crop ratings plunged in the ECB:
7-Day rainfall for the Midwest - actual & as % of normal, compliments of Commodity Weather Group. #corn#soybeans#oatt
Iowa looks like a hot zone that had plenty of moisture in the soil. That can’t last given the forecast the next couple weeks.
Great info mike
Euro Ensembles show very dry conditions setting up the next two week. A large 500mb ridge is forecast to form across the Four corners region and spread east through the Ohio River Valley. GFS Ensembles are not as dry in the corn belt but I still lean towards the Euro. GFS in my mind has been too wet since the update.
Jim,
Parts of IA had some huge rains earlier in June, see the 30 day precip map below.
Thanks for the nice comment Dave!
Grant,
Thanks for the Euro Ensemble rain forecast. Dry and very warm to hot, too so soils will experience some major drying for the rest of the month.
One can't help be bullish the grains on that weather.
One way to look at expectations for price direction is to ask this question about what the market thinks every day.
Is the crop size(supply) based on new crop condition expectations, getting bigger or smaller or staying the same?
If crop ratings are expected to improve..........the crop is getting bigger, the price goes lower.
If crop ratings are expected to drop..........the crop is getting smaller, the price goes higher.
One can be fairly confident that 3 weeks from now, the crop rating will be lower.
But there are other factors.
There is X amount of risk premium already in the price for potential adverse weather. Every day that goes by, is one more day closer to the crop being made and no need any longer to have risk premium.
So this erodes in huge, unpredictable chunks lower, often coinciding with big rain events and/or updated weather forecasts that add a bunch of rain that the market believes.
New risk premium can also be added when the forecast turns hotter and drier than it was the previous day.............which is another way of stating that market expectations of the new crop supply DECREASED, so the price needs to go higher.
We actually started trading today's crop conditions weeks ago, when the weather forecast was first giving us a glimpse of what it might be like in early July.
This week, the market will be trading the crop rating in 2 weeks and maybe even speculating on the USDA crop condition report on July 28th, especially if you are a position trader.
If you think the crop ratings will plunge at the end of July and prices will be higher than this then, buying this week might be a good idea.
Crop ratings might now drop much next Monday but no problemo because your strategy is to be long when they do plunge late this month.
You could even add to that long if confidence grows in the crop ratings plunge..........but this is dangerous because the weather can change quickly and July is a month capable of losing alot of risk premium real fast for corn.
Why is that?
Pollination is a key time frame and mostly happens in July. If pollination proceeds successfully and the future weather is not too adverse, the price in July can drop hard.
This year, however I believe we have an unusually high risk of yield losses from kernel "heat fill", starting immediately after pollination, going thru August....if the heat continues.
Heat fill coming up for corn
Started by metmike - June 25, 2020, 7:52 p.m.
Almost forgot this map of rainfall for the past 30 days. Note the dry ECB, which saw the crop rating, especially corn, go lower.
It looks like the entire corn belt has been dry except for the eastern half of Iowa. But if we have learned nothing the past few years is that corn is a hardy plant.
Agree Jim!
Improvements in genetics, technology, the best weather/climate in history and big plus from increasing CO2(that also makes plants more heat tolerant and water efficient.
12th warmest June on record for the Corn Belt (production weighted); comparable to what was recorded in 2018 and 2016
0.43" below normal on rainfall in June for the Corn Belt (production weighted); comparable to what was recorded in 2017 and 2016
When the corn plant starts to die you know there is a problem
We have been in drought conditions such as I have never seen before, in 50 yrs
Genetics won't save a dead corn plant
It looks like this is our 2012
