KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, July 7, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.7%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -9.3%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter GDP by State
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.7%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -5.7%)
10:00 AM ET. May Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 47.0)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 42.4)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.6M)
Wednesday, July 8, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 758.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 308.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3359.2)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 533.527M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.195M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 256.521M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.199M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 174.127M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.593M)
Refinery Usage (previous 75.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.353M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.995M)
3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous -68.7B)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as traders wait for the next wave of information on the economy, the spread of coronavirus and corporate earnings. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 9728.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 10664.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 9728.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9567.48.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-week's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3004.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3004.51. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 2925.70.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177-13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the May 15th high crossing at 180-25 is the next upside target. Closes above the April-21st high crossing at 181-15 or below June's low crossing at 170-30 are needed to confirm a breakout of the April-July trading range. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 179-17. Second resistance is the May 15th high crossing at 180-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177-13. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.217 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 30th high crossing at 139.140. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070. Second support is June's low crossing at 136.220.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was slightly lower in overnight trading as it consolidates below resistance marked by the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $34.66.
August heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging and poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $112.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.56. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $112.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.56.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $111.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $132.53. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $111.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.06.
August Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.933 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.701 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.933. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.960. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.701. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.517.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off May's high, March's low crossing at $94.71 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.22 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $97.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.22. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.88. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.71.
The September Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 10th high crossing at $114.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58. First support is June's low crossing at $111.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.12.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2502 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2502. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2745. First support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2170. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.2083.
The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading as it extends the June-July trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a double top with June's high might have been posted on Monday. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 12th low crossing at 1.0497 would signal a downside breakout of the June-July trading range. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0659. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the June 12th low crossing at 1.0497. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0450.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-week's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target.If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.75 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is June's low crossing at 72.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.75.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 0.0912 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0933 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1742.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1807.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1809.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1761.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1742.10.
September silver was lower overnight as it extends the May-July trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below June's low crossing at $17.175 would confirm a downside breakout of the May-July trading range. If September renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at $19.125 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $19.035. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $19.125. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.314. Second support is June's low crossing at $17.175.
September copper was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 2.9000 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6681 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 2.7818. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.9000. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6681. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.5153.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.38 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the July 2019-June 2020 decline crossing at $3.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.63. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July 2019-June 2020 decline crossing at $3.73. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.38 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at $4.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.95. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.08 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $4.71. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.56 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this year's decline, long-term support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.56 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.73. First support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4. Second support is long-term support crossing at $4.12.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/2 are needed to renew the rally off May's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is June's low crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.79 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.79 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63 1/2.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $312.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $312.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.20 Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the June-July trading range. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 29.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.13. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 27.42.
thanks much tallpine!
NG still being pushed to new highs from the upcoming heat.
Grains, I'm guessing are getting hurt from the change to less adverse weather this week, along with negative seasonals in July.
Rains will miss alot of areas this week, then it turns HOT and dry with crop ratings likely falling later this month. We dialed in a ton or additional risk premium with last weeks spike higher though, so either we got ahead of ourselves and the top is in.
If it stays hot/dry thru the rest of the month, we just got ahead of ourselves.