Biden Positive for Stocks? Probably the most ignorant financial opinion piece I've ever read.
21 responses | 0 likes
Started by TimNew - July 10, 2020, 12:32 p.m.

Yesterday, we saw a 3-400 point selloff in equities because the SCOTUS ruled a prosecutor could get Trump's tax returns.  Wall Street thought this might hurt Trump's re-election chances.  The mere possibility of hurting his chances caused a selloff. It was knee jerk,  but the day ended negative.  

As we know,  Wall Street "loves" the idea of higher corporate taxes,  more regulation, things like the Green New Deal,  etc,  etc..

Are these people on the dems payroll?   Every day,  I hear the theme song from "The Twilight Zone" playing louder and louder as the media keeps pounding into our heads that up is down,  truth is fiction and evil is good.


Another piece of total nonsense from the article 

"In addition, JPMorgan wrote that "history suggests that challengers to an incumbent typically campaign at an extreme only to converge to the center post-election," meaning there could still be a shift in some policies."

This is unmitigated nonsense.  History shows that during the primaries, candidates are more extreme, particularly on the left.  Once the candidate has been selected, they move somewhat towards the center to appeal to moderates.  If anything,  Biden has moved further to the left since becoming the presumptive candidate.  But he, and the left knows,   he has a lot of latitude with Trump as an opponent.  

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-biden-victory-forecast-november-could-positive-jpmorgan-2020-7-1029369593

""The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities," wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas in a Monday note. "However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive." 

Comments
By wxdavid - July 10, 2020, 2:37 p.m.
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Dude  get a clue. It is NOT 2019  anymore.

 Not only is the essay correct but it's delusional that anybody at this point could make the argument that Donald Trump is good for the American economy.   You  could have make that argument before January but with the arrival of a coronavirus you can't make that argument now.


 If the argument is that we have to have a functional economy while we keep the virus under control and in check so the hospitals don't get overwhelmed  the  Wall Street knows something that you do not.


Out of control  virus =  no economy.

 Virus in control  =  functional economy.


The virus is not under control  -- it is out of control the death toll is rising again and the United States is the only country in the world that'  is going through a second surge  WHLE STILL IN THE FIRST  WAVE !!!

if your concern is to keep the economy of functional   why would you as a political   leader engage in a philosophy and a political argument which tells people

 the virus is not serious
It is a hoax
 It is  going away
that masks are not necessary

and encourage Governor's to open up states too early and encourage and conspiracy nuts to not wear masks and to oppose mandatory mask-wearing?


This is what Wall Street knows and this is what you don't know.

Until the virus is under control there can be no economic growth in this country.


If we do not shut down States again especially in the South we will have no functional economy and the virus will get out of control completely.


 your politics are apparently so extreme that you don't understand this basic concept.

 Out of control  virus =  no economy.

 Virus in control  =  functional economy.


By wxdavid - July 10, 2020, 2:37 p.m.
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  sorry for the double  post

By wglassfo - July 10, 2020, 2:44 p.m.
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The little bit I scanned of Biden's policy,  does not bode well for the economy or the USA

Two things struck me

1: His green deal of being carbon free by 2050

If he makes small policy changes then he won't do much harm, but the  greenies on the left will demand big changes starting immediately. I think the greenies will swing a big stick on green everything, very soon after Biden is in office. Will Biden attempt to slow things down. I doubt he will be able to slow down much of anything. He may not even understand what is happening

2:  His policy will accept anybody who wants to come to the USA, no questions asked. Just come and we will welcome you with open arms. Does anybody know how much in welfare this program alone will cost. I read one estimate that in 10 yrs the population of the USA would be 1 billion. Is my math correct at 100 million/yr for 10 yrs???. How many of these people will produce anything?? Does a corner variety store produce anything or just circulate welfare money??. Any way think about that a bit

There was a bit about increasing taxes and some other pandering for votes that did not amount to much

However, there was some thing about tough on Wall St which I did not understand what the gist might be

On a final note, if immigration is only 1/2 of projections, then the East and West coast will get mighty crowded. The part about non productive arrivals, is a bit concerning, as you know who will come if no questions asked. I am sure this was aimed at the Mexican voter population but the ramifications of people from all over the world is some thing to think about

This isn't 1860 when settlers arrived to settle the vast open plains of the west. All the productive places, in america already have lots of people.

Just two policy statements that will cost billions



By TimNew - July 10, 2020, 3:19 p.m.
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WXD,  you're a funny guy.   Don't advise others to get a clue when you appear willfully ignorant.

A few questions.

We had the sharpest deepest economic hit in my life time, probably in history.  We are roaring back at a fast pace.  I've seen lesser eco-hits take much longer.  Why do you suppose that is?

It appears you hold Trump solely responsible for the virus.   Does that include the whole world, or just the US?

Do you think a virus with a 95+% survival rate will cripple the US? Keep in mind that outside of high risk groups, the survival rate is much higher.

DO you think Tax increases will stimulate the economy, even if "they are less than feared"?

Do you think additional regulations help or hurt economic growth?

Do you think even lackluster efforts to implement the "New Green Deal" will help or hinder growth?

Thru 2019 we had one of the most robust economies I've ever seen, including the dot com boom of the 90's.  Unemployment, particularly among minorities was at historic lows.  Homeownership was up strongly.  Personal income was starting to grow.  In the first 2 years of the Trump admin we added roughly 11 times the number of MFG jobs than during the previous admin.  You remember,  the ones that needed a magic wand?  I can go on and on with the positive metrics.  Why do you suppose we had so many positives?

I eagerly await what I am certain will be extremely entertaining answers.   TIA  :-)

 



By mcfarm - July 10, 2020, 3:28 p.m.
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who could ever forget election nite in 2016 as you sat on an IRA you spent s lifetime building. That was me, scared to death that I made the wrong decision as polls had the socialist crazy women ahead by many points and going to walk away as the winner. Lucky for me I stayed strong and trusted the American people as we all know what stocks have done since we ended that awful person's dream and kept ours alive. Well here comes another election and I have the same problem. Maybe worse as Biden has taken nearly all of Bernie's talking points and surrendered to every special group that has ever been manufactured.

By metmike - July 10, 2020, 3:41 p.m.
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"the death toll is rising again"

Dave,

We would appreciate it if you would stick to the facts and not be so much like Donald Trump here.

The death toll is NOT rising yet as of today's data point. I provided the data/science for you below.  New case numbers have been going much higher, yes. The death toll has stopped going lower, yes. The death toll might be on the verge of increasing based on new case numbers(my guess is that it does but nothing close to what we had in April and May with the total shut downs) but it is not rising again as of July 10th.............unless you want to try to cherry pick 2 individual data points on the graph or you listen to CNN. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55092/

New daily positives with the much higher rate of testing and opening up.............and widespread protesting with no social distancing have been going up the last 3 weeks.   Possibly, over half of this is from the increase in testing. Some is surely from opening up and poor habits/lack of precautions and some from the protests.

Deaths  had been going down steadily for  2 months  but could be turning higher soon. The next 2 weeks will tell us a great deal(the time lag between testing positive and dying in many cases).


Find this data here: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

Daily new infection cases in zig zag blue below. Cumulative new cases in orange on graph 1.

On graph 2, deaths in zig zag purple. Totals deaths in red.

By wglassfo - July 10, 2020, 4:28 p.m.
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Hi Tim

I agree with you on the economy before the pandemic

Nobody could imagine such strong growth, low unemployment etc.

However you say the economy is roaring back

I assume you think the pandemic, although serious, will not stop a strong recovery

I will admit the various gov't stimulus money has kept the unemployed with money to spend. In fact June recorded sharply higher consumer spending. Corp large and small were kept afloat with money to pay staff and expenses. The Fed pumped money into the bond market, stks and other places of which I don't know. I read the Fed stimulus reached a total of 3 trillion. Now the Fed is reducing it's balance sheet, which confuses me, but some body must know some thing I don't

 I just read where the next stimulus cheques are already being printed. I suppose the amount is left blank for now. It is up to congress as to who and how much is sent out.

What I want to know is this

Can the economy have a strong recovery with out stimulus cheques


By TimNew - July 10, 2020, 7:27 p.m.
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To Wayne.  The last stimulus was awesomely well targeted tho more expensive than I would have liked..  I think it was all the stimulus we needed.  The assorted data I look at tells me we are well on our way and another stimulus is misguided. Let "we the people" do what we do; what we do best.  We know what to do.


To MM..  (In my Beaver Cleaver Voice)  Gosh Dad (MM)   do ya think WXD will ever answer any of my questions?  Gosh.  I really wanted to hear what he had to say..  ::::SIGH::::

By wxdavid - July 10, 2020, 9:26 p.m.
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  mike it is up to  nearly  1000  

10 days ago  it was 300

By wxdavid - July 10, 2020, 9:33 p.m.
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WXD,  you're a funny guy.   Don't advise others to get a clue when you appear willfully ignorant.

A few questions.

We had the sharpest deepest economic hit in my life time, probably in history.  We are roaring back at a fast pace.  I've seen lesser eco-hits take much longer.  Why do you suppose that is?
     you are   lyin  and  making this stuff up.... thats why


It appears you hold Trump solely responsible for the virus.   Does that include the whole world, or just the US?

  Of course I hold Donald Trump responsible for the virus in the US. Don't you hold him accountable for the US response?   why would anybody think of President is not accountable for his own leadership and words


Do you think a virus with a 95+% survival rate will cripple the US? Keep in mind that outside of high risk groups, the survival rate is much higher.    
yes of course it  will.    Jesus what is wrong with you poeple?
 whats next?   you gonna tell em the virus is really caused to 5g and bill Gates ?

 what are you like 4 years old?  How many times over the past few months has he claimed that we have the virus under control that it's going away that the death toll is dropping that we have the most and highest testing?

Now suddenly I'm supposed to believe the virus is not his responsibility?

We've seen a small partial recovery from the disastrous crash caused by Donald Trump's refusal to prepare for the virus and refuse to accept the virus was going to be a big deal back in February and in March.
This recovery  which has now stopped was simply rehiring of people who got laid off. There were no new jobs being created as I'm sure you know.


 That recovery has now collapsed unemployment numbers are rising again rapidly because states are being forced to undergo either partial or complete shutdowns and people are not engaging in normal economic activity while we are up to 75,000 cases.




DO you think Tax increases will stimulate the economy, even if "they are less than feared"?

Do you think additional regulations help or hurt economic growth?

Do you think even lackluster efforts to implement the "New Green Deal" will help or hinder growth?

Thru 2019 we had one of the most robust economies I've ever seen, including the dot com boom of the 90's.  Unemployment, particularly among minorities was at historic lows.  Homeownership was up strongly.  Personal income was starting to grow.  In the first 2 years of the Trump admin we added roughly 11 times the number of MFG jobs than during the previous admin.  You remember,  the ones that needed a magic wand?  I can go on and on with the positive metrics.  Why do you suppose we had so many positives?

I eagerly await what I am certain will be extremely entertaining answers.   TIA  :-)

 

By TimNew - July 11, 2020, 5:50 a.m.
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I see you "forgot" to answer several questions.  But you're main point is that you hold Trump fully responsible for the virus.   You hold Trump responsible for the mishandling of this by the WHO,  for the mishandling and mis-information by China and the actions, and/or irresponsibility of everyone in this country.  You think the president should have some sort of magical wand that he can wave and make all the bad stuff go away.  And then you have the audacity to ask if I am 4 years old?

DO you suppose Hillary would have waved her magic Benghazi email server wand and made this all better?  Dude, your obvious TDS is blurring your vision.

And you see a "Small Partial Recovery"?    Have you been watching anything other than CNN?  Equities are almost back to where they were. NASDAQ is actually setting new record highs.  We've added about 10 millions jobs.  MFG is roaring.  The service sector is roaring.  Nearly every metric is off the charts. And you call this a "Small Partial Recovery"?

Unemployment numbers are rising again?   You're making that up or measuring in a different universe,  but in reality, new claims are down(Still historically high, but)  and for the last two months, net job creations has been in the multi-millions. And No,  I am not making this up.  

I really don't know how to debate someone who is so far removed from reality.  Your criteria is obviously agenda driven.


By mcfarm - July 11, 2020, 7:19 a.m.
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don't forget Tim, he is a strong conservative even voted for and elect people like RR....what a guy

By wxdavid - July 11, 2020, 11:07 a.m.
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Timnew.... as is typically the case  when die-hard trumpsters run out of ammo they turn to Benghazi and Hillary. 

 The thread was about how the US  economy can remain  strong when the virus is Exploding  once again .... yet somehow  YOU  brought  Hillary???

Even worse not one comment  from you about trumps actions/words on the virus. 3x in the past 6 days he has claimed the virus is going away

He has not met with Fauci in more than 60 days. Dont believe  me? Look it up.  He has not met with doctor Birx  in 30Days.

 Recall when Mr. Trump  wanted  a  opening  on  Easter?
On the Easter back in the middle of April?
If you think things are bad now imagine how it would have been if we had the opening back in middle of April.



By wxdavid - July 11, 2020, 11:17 a.m.
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added 10 million jobs after losing 50 million. Let's try and keep that in mind OK?   

Those jobs were re hires not new jobs.

The only person here with TDS is you.  Trump defense syndrome. Calling out facts is not a syndrome it's called reality .

 of course to people like you calling out facts is something that simply is unheard of. The market rise from the bottom  was expected with  partial re-opening 


If you think with 10,000 new cases A DAY in TX and 12,000  in FLORIDA   8000 in California  4000  in GA and AZ  etc  the USA  is full economic  recovery  the yeah you are irrational  or stoned 

By metmike - July 11, 2020, 12:05 p.m.
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Dave,

Please use this example by you as the acceptable way to express opinions here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55664/


Please try to refrain from communication like this, on this thread and a previous one below:

 you are   lyin  and  making this stuff up.... thats why

  Jesus what is wrong with you poeple?

 I am pretty sure you are irrational

or from yesterday to mcfarm(that I decided to ignore, in the hopes that you were over that stuff and this was isolated)

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/55569/

at first I wondered if you really were this stupid or perhaps if there was a mental issue with you.

 Then it occurred to me that your definition of a socialist is anybody who doesn't agree with Trump.  And Upon that realization, I deduced  that you really are a moron


Dave,

You have obviously found people that will engage with you in very counterproductive discourse here but I am not worried about their behavior...........they were doing great for years with 0 warnings, until you showed up to pick fights.

Again, disagreement is good here when both parties are civil and respectful to each other.(use wxfollower and pj as good examples that also feel the same way as you do about Trump)

You've had 4 hard warnings and well over a dozen violations as of Thursday Morning, when I decided enough is enough and to ban you.

I decided to just let some of your posts thru and strongly considered Larry's plea to try to keep you here.........as well as my own personal desire to have you here(but posting in a civil way).

You are getting this post because I am trying TO HELP YOU TO STAY HERE.

If that wasn't the case, you would be long gone and at any point in time, after you rack up more violations, I can just pull the plug.

You are the only one that can do this. I know that you have it in you Dave.....just decide to commit to posting honestly and respectfully.

All you need to do is show me progress or that you are trying and I will cut you more slack. Consider this an exercise in self improvement of your people/communication skills. We can all use that.


BTW,

Your wonderful weather posts yesterday scored you some high points........thanks!

By TimNew - July 11, 2020, 12:41 p.m.
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50 millions lost jobs?    Really?    I haven't seen anything like that anywhere.  Do you have a source?   Most I've heard is about 32 million.  And yes,  the 10 million or so jobs are probably largely, if not completely, rehires.  But I have been watching these numbers for decades, and we have never seen jobs in the millions in one month..   In either direction,  underlining my point that we not only saw the steepest and deepest hit to the economy ever,  but are also seeing the steepest recovery..  ever!!  They were still referring to the last recovery as a "recovery" for years.  This one may very well end up being measured in months,  largely due to the well targeted, if not excessive stimulus designed by the Trump admin.  These are facts and there is little room for interpretation to an objective observer.  A club that apparently does not include you are a member.

As far as your prognostication of 10k cases a day..    We are also seeing 10's of thousands of tests per day more than we were a few months ago, so it begs  the question.  Is this expansion or discovery?    Probably a little of both.   But we know the CDC has screwed up the results by including the identification of antibodies, (someone who has had the disease) with positive results (people who currently have the disease).   We also know many of these cases are asymptomatic and, problematic to you,  the data does not indicate a significant increase in deaths.

I pay very little attention to Trump's words but do note his actions.   I injected Hillary because she was the only alternative in the last election and I sincerely doubt she would have done better and likely done worse. Her track record is dismal. 

But I understand your resistance to an objective view.  You appear have a neurotic compulsive need to bash Trump and apparently anyone who does not share your disorder. You have my sympathy,  but are a long way to getting my respect, tho I am certain that does not trouble you. 

By wxdavid - July 11, 2020, 5:02 p.m.
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10 seconds of goggle  research would show  you those numbers.
 
as of may 28  at LEAST 40 million

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/28/us-job-losses-unemployment-coronavirus



50 millions lost jobs?    Really?    I haven't seen anything like that anywhere.  Do you have a source?   Most I've heard is about 32 million.  And yes,  the 10 million or so jobs are probably largely, if not completely, rehires.  But I have been watching these numbers for decades, and we have never seen jobs in the millions in one month..   In either direction,  underlining my point that we not only saw the steepest and deepest hit to the economy ever,  but are also seeing the steepest recovery..  ever!!  They were still referring to the last recovery as a "recovery" for years.  This one may very well end up being measured in months,  largely due to the well targeted, if not excessive stimulus designed by the Trump admin.  These are facts and there is little room for interpretation to an objective observer.  A club that apparently does not include you are a member.

As far as your prognostication of 10k cases a day..    We are also seeing 10's of thousands of tests per day more than we were a few months ago, so it begs the question.  Is this expansion or discovery?    Probably a little of both.    

MAYBE  a  little of  the increase  is because of  increased testing .  However if that was true then we would see significant increases in New York state Pennsylvania Michigan Illinois Ohio because they also have massive increases in tests and for the month of June they saw no increase in their cases.

If anything they're daily caseload continued to drop in JUNE.

So again if it's all because of testing or significant amount is because of increased testing then how do you explain that there has not been an increase in cases during the month of June in these northern states?

 I know it seems I'm being argumentative but I'm not. This is the stumbling block to your theory. I'm not saying you are 100% wrong. I'm asking you to explain why if it's mostly increase in testing we are not saying the increase in cases in the northern states. I don't think my question here is being unreasonable 





  But we know the CDC has screwed up the results by including the identification of antibodies, (someone who has had the disease) with positive results (people who currently have the disease).   We also know many of these cases are asymptomatic and, problematic to you,  the data does not indicate a significant increase in deaths.

I pay very little attention to Trump's words but do note his actions.   I injected Hillary because she was the only alternative in the last election and I sincerely doubt she would have done better and likely done worse. Her track record is dismal.

But I understand your resistance to an objective view.  You appear have a neurotic compulsive need to bash Trump and apparently anyone who does not share your disorder. You have my sympathy,  but are a long way to getting my respect, tho I am certain that does not trouble you.

By TimNew - July 11, 2020, 7:48 p.m.
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MM. Has Vandy some back under a different handle?    Seems like it.  I'm done battling strawmen.  50 million becomes 40 million and a google search shows less. Unless you rely on CNN. And he still seems to claim that he's right?!?  And we have completely departed from the debate that a Biden victory would devastate the markets.   It's impossible to defend the assertion that it's not true.  I get that.  But what a silly diatribe   

I still feel kinda sorry for WXD..  But it's typical of the left to be poorly informed, angry and unhappy. Just like Vandy,  he's a lifetime republican voter till now.  even tho he appears to oppose every single principle of the conservatives in the republican party.


I'm quite done with this nonsensical exchange.   

By wxdavid - July 11, 2020, 9:50 p.m.
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All my God. Just stop whining and do the Google search are ready


 40 million plus the 10 million lost in June. Did you see the date of that article I linked to .

That was at the end of May. It's now almost 45 days later. Don't you think the number might have been added to 40 million? Please try not to act like you're the offended one simply because you are obtuse

 


My original point was that until the virus is solved or gone away there can be no full recovery. Upon making that remark you called me delusional or words to that effect. I don't think my point is unreasonable and I stand by it.


.if this was regular economy then one could make the case that Joe Biden spending and tax policy is wrong for the country. Right now the number 1 issue is to get the virus under control which clearly the  President in the White House is incapable of doing in any capacity whatsoever

 You and the rest of the far right wing Amen corner seem to have a problem dealing with the reality of the virus. And what it means for the economy and the future of the country for the rest of the year.


I do not think my argument or focus about the impact of the virus on the economic recovery for the rest of the year is unreasonable or extreme. Clearly you do because it's the basis of your name calling upon me in your last show will post were you and some others here have question I satiety. The fact that I see things differently from you does not give you justification for your name calling and hostile attitude



Even though Mike jumps on me for my attitude here your attitude and replies have been consistently hostile. But I guess you get a free pass where I don't. While those the forum rules and if Mike wants to give people like you a free pass when you take a giant crop on me that's his progative.



By TimNew - July 12, 2020, 6:58 a.m.
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I apologize for my tone.


The fact is, we have not added to the ranks of the unemployed in the last 2 months, we have dramatically decreased them.

You are wrong in placing the entire blame for the virus on Trump, logically, morally and ethically.  We'll probably have to agree to disagree here.

I think you are placing too much emphasis on the economic impact of the virus.   Time will tell. 

By wxdavid - July 12, 2020, 4:06 p.m.
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 fair enough


 the problem with trying to defend Trump and his actions with a coronavirus is that  the USA  is dealing with a second  surge  with the  FIRST wave


 ONLY   the usa .
 No other nation

All the other major industrialized nations who were  hit with the virus either right before we were or about the same time ... and ALL of them have the virus under control and are opening up.

The USA is not.

 This virus is going to force states to shut down again and it will greatly   restrict  all economic activity right through the end of the year. I'm just amazed that you think this is not going to be the case.


 yesterday the UK had 820 cases.
Germany 224  
France 312  
Italy 188 cases. Remember what a basket case  Italy was ?
 Japan 410
South Korea 35.

The United States 75,000 cases in one day July 10   and 62 000  july 11

 even adjusting for the fact that these countries are substantially smaller than the US clearly we are doing something very wrong.  

 we have failed as a country and when the country fails the president gets the blame.


 That's true whether is economic matters or military matters or political matters or in this case biomedical.  I don't understand how you can look at the second surge which developed after Memorial Day and  and come to conclusion that we are not doing something drastically wrong.