there is a blue wave coming THE HILL.COM
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Started by wxdavid - July 12, 2020, 4:21 p.m.

JUST  putting this out there   I am certain some one is going to   reply   ' remember 2016".    
2020 isn't  like 2016   just like 2016  was not 2012.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/theres-a-big-blue-wave-coming/ar-BB16DyaE

There's a wave coming. A blue wave like the one in 2018. Only bigger. Much bigger. Big enough to sweep away President Trump and the Republican majority in the Senate.

We've seen wave elections before. There was a Democratic wave in 1964; Republican Barry Goldwater ended up carrying just six states (five in the Deep South and his own state of Arizona). He got 38 percent of the popular vote. 1972 saw a Republican wave; Democrat George McGovern carried only one state (Massachusetts) and the District of Columbia. He got 38 percent of the popular vote. At this point in 1992, the first President Bush was at 38 percent job approval. A few months later, he lost his bid for-re-election. What's Donald Trump's latest job approval rating in the Gallup poll? You guessed it - 38 percent.

The anti-Trump wave is building. Every national poll taken over the past month shows Democrat Joe Biden leading Trump; the average margin is approaching ten points. Yes, Hillary Clinton was leading Trump in the polls at this stage of the 2016 campaign. But by smaller margins. Moreover, Biden is leading in all of the battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - where Trump won razor-thin victories in 2016.

Moreover, Biden is not as unpopular as Hillary Clinton was. Clinton's negative ratings in June 2016 averaged 55 percent. The public's view of Biden is more neutral (45 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable in June polling). That's better than the public's view of Trump (56 percent unfavorable).

Harry Enten of CNN has examined the thirteen presidential elections involving an incumbent going back to 1940. His conclusion? "No one in an incumbent presidential election has been polling above 50 percent at this point like Biden and gone on to lose."

Trump has a fatal flaw of character. He lacks empathy, the ability to understand and share the feelings of others. That's a serious flaw at a time when so many Americans are suffering from health anxiety and economic setbacks.

Last year, author Martha Bordwell wrote an article in the MinnPost entitled "Empathy: Its lack is what most disqualifies Donald Trump for the presidency." She explained, "He has experienced so few of the hardships most of us have endured by the time we reach our seventies."

Joe Biden exudes empathy. He has suffered immense personal tragedies: the loss of his first wife and infant daughter in an automobile accident a few weeks after he was first elected to the Senate in 1972; in 2015, the loss of his elder son, an Iraq war veteran, to brain cancer.

The number one issue to voters this year is the pandemic.

 Democratic pollster Geoff Garin told the Washington Post, "Trump is increasingly defined in voters' minds by his failing response to the coronavirus crisis, and virtually every action and position he's taken have been wildly out of sync with where the public is at on what should be done." The president has said he thinks the virus will "just disappear." He has consistently downplayed the threat posed by the coronavirus and is urging Americans to learn to live with it. That means learning to live with more than 3 million Americans infected and over 134,000 dead - more than twice as many as the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam war.

President Trump is desperate to change the subject. "We have to get back to business," he told Axios. "We have to get back to living our lives. Can't do this any longer." Faced with a rising death toll, Trump's response was, "I said to my people, 'Slow the testing down please,'" so he wouldn't look so bad. Biden's response? "Make no mistake. We are still in a deep, deep jobs hole because Donald Trump has so badly bungled the response to the coronavirus and now has basically given up responding at all."

Trump wants to fight another battle in the culture war that's been going on in this country for more than 50 years. But the surprising support from white Americans for the Black Lives Matter movement carries a message: The country has changed. It's not 1968 any more.

Joe Biden doesn't stir a lot of enthusiasm among Democrats. But President Trump does: anti-Trump enthusiasm. The prospect of getting rid of this president is likely to drive a record turnout of Democrats despite their concern about infection. Many will vote by mail - and dare the Trump campaign to challenge their ballots as illegal.

A blue wave this year is also likely to sweep away the Republican majority in the Senate. Democrats will need a net gain of three or four Senate seats. The Cook Political Report rates five currently Republican seats as "toss ups." Two are in states that Hillary Clinton carried (Colorado and Maine). Two are in increasingly competitive states (Arizona and North Carolina). The Democratic Senate nominee in Montana, Steve Bullock, is the state's popular governor.

2020 is also a census year. States with more than one House member will redraw congressional district boundaries for the next decade using the new population figures. According to the Associated Press, "Voters will be electing more than 5,000 state lawmakers in 35 states who will play a significant role in crafting or passing new maps for Congress." The 2010 Republican wave helped keep a Republican majority in control of the House of Representatives for the next eight years. A blue wave this year could do the same for Democrats.

Donald Trump is not the only one whose fate hangs in the balance in the 2020 election - so does the fate of the Republican Party, which has been fatally seduced by Trump.

Bill Schneider is a professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and author of 'Standoff: How America Became Ungovernable' (Simon & Schuster).

Comments
By wxdavid - July 12, 2020, 4:37 p.m.
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Biden Builds Lead In Texas

A new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll in Texas finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 46% to 41% with 14% undecided.

  the last  5 polls have showed Biden and Trump Tuesday in texas or with either a  1  or  2 point leads.

  in all probability, BIDEN   will NOT  carry Texas.
But it  should not be  this close

By WxFollower - July 12, 2020, 5:02 p.m.
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 Thanks to Trump being terrible with the virus and considering the polls,  I'm fully expecting the Dems to win the POTUS and Senate absent deference given to the lib wing that supports anarchy over law and order. America as a whole won't put up with that crap. So, will the Dems botch up their opportunity? Unlikely given there's only 4 months to go  but far from impossible. Trump absolutely deserves to lose. He's dug his own grave. He's on the verge of bringing more anarchy loving libs into power. Thanks a lot, Trump.

 Now if the Dems win in 2020 and the libs have too much control over policy and go too far left/anarchist/anti-police as an institution, look for the GOP to come back in 2022 and 2024. Maybe then we can get a Haley, Rubio, or Kasich and get back to a much saner GOP.

 Parties are always evolving. Nothing's ever close to being permanent. Cycles dominate. Looking like a blue wave is imminent in 2020 but that could easily reverse to a red wave in 2022-4 thanks to the 40% in or near the middle (including myself) that won't put up with extremist tribalistic crap on either side.


By TimNew - July 12, 2020, 7:39 p.m.
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And yet, for some odd reason,  republicans are registering to vote at a far higher rate than dems.   I'm sure it means nothing.  But see, the weird thing is..  NO matter how much you hate Trump..    No one loves Biden.  A lot of dems don't even like him.   So,  we'll maybe see a repeat of 2016 where,  even tho Trump sux,  he was better than Hillary.  A debate or two, with Trump being a loud mouthed azzhole and Biden being a doddering old fool may be very telling.

But its refreshing to see a life long conservative rooting for a "Blue Wave"


.https://sports.yahoo.com/gop-voter-registrations-reportedly-outpacing-123218266.html?src=rss  

By WxFollower - July 12, 2020, 7:49 p.m.
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Tim,

 My impression of Dave, going back 20 years on weather BBs, is that he was never a far righter and instead more of a right of centerish type of Republican. Back then he got relentlessly attacked by libs at one political board we were both at. Maybe he can set the record straight. But now he's coming in here and boldly attacking cons so much that he almost sounds like he's had a massive transformation into a solid lib. I fully understand his being fully turned off by Trump as I'm in the same boat. But I'm not becoming more lib because of it. I'm still right of center as I'm not the least bit interested in lib identity politics, hypocritical labeling, and way overdone PCness...yuck!

 I'm still tying to get him to address this, but I don't think he wants to.

 By the way, I'm not so sure Dave is actually rooting for a blue wave. Predicting it and/or posting that Bill Schneider prediction and rooting for it are not the same thing though Dave may be rooting for it. 


By TimNew - July 12, 2020, 7:57 p.m.
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Thanks.  Perhaps I have an extremely steep learning curve.  I hold you in a rather high regard and you hold WXD in a high regard.  I'll attempt to withhold judgement. But I will assure you, so far, that presents a challenge.

By wxdavid - July 12, 2020, 11:16 p.m.
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  TIM  WROTE

And yet, for some odd reason,  republicans are registering to vote at a far higher rate than dems.  


  FROM your LINK   its says      GOP voter registrations have surged, according to the RNC.

 hey lets practice some  BASIC critical  thinking skills  Tim.  (You should  it some time).

 Is it possible that the RNC is lying here?
 (or the DNC) about their voter   registration  drives?

 say ... may be there is an unbiased source that reports ACTUAL  data from the states?

By metmike - July 13, 2020, noon
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Tim is just responding based on Dave's posts so far this month which has been almost all from one side, mostly likely an extension of his intense hatred for President Trump which can't be separated on an island.............it affects almost all political views.

Anything related to Trump, (including supporters of Trump) is repugnant in the eyes of those that hate Trump. It distorts their views and ability to see things related to Trump objectively.

So with Dave's posting previously reflecting that, others here might not consider this story as coming from an objective source.


But if I posted the story, you would probably not feel the same way.  I only use metmike as an example because I have come out defending Trump numerous times, when the attacks on him were unfounded/based on fake news(he deserves most of it, however and I get tired of having to continually state this and his massive character flaws in the same thread as the defense or be thought of as a blind apologist).

That being the case, I agree entirely with this article and you should note, I have expressed very similar views for some time. 

Trump has in fact energized his enemies and has resulted in the most extreme enemies that represent those with unthought of agenda gaining huge support..........because the more opposite something is to Donald Trump, the more appealing it sounds to people with TDS...........which number in the tens of millions.

Despite the surprise in 2016, this is different.

Trump was more of a wildcard and unknown in 2016 and alot of people were never Clintons and them just not showing up to vote cost her. 

This time, everybody knows everything about Trump. If he had a dog and it pooped in the wrong place, it would be headline news (-:

Trump has mainly shot himself in the foot with alot of unforced errors and his easy to hate personality(I wouldn't want any friends like him) makes him an easy target for the MSM to pile on with, sometimes ridiculous and obvious(to objective people) biased vitriol and he has more enemies is powerful places than any other president in my lifetime...........and his strongest point to be elected again, the economy was clobbered by COVID(and those that hate him, showing they actually don't want the economy to recover.......until after Trump is defeated) it's just so, so massive and from all over that I would be shocked if we don't see a blue wave, absent something completely unseen happening in the next 4 months.

In this recent environment...............COVID, impeachment, corrupt Mueller investigation and so on, it seems like the unprecedented has become almost the new normal while Trump has been president.

But so many people have already made up their minds. On the ballet, this November, this will be their 2 choices.

1. Donald Trump

2. Not Donald Trump.

Back in my tv days(1982-93), we did tons of focus groups and research to get peoples opinions on our news personalities.

This was done in part to see what people wanted so that we could make that a bigger priority to increase the almighty ratings. This is good from the standpoint of trying to provide people with what they want to see.

Also, each main anchor would be subject to major scrutinizing. Rating them for all sorts of things. Places to make comments about them. 

Now the point. When a news person had high ratings...........their positions were locked in. When they had less than high ratings, they might be ok, if it appeared that people's opinions were not that strong. Doing promotion spots for that person or changes they might make could be well received by viewers and make them more popular.

HOWEVER, if a person had a significant amount of very strong, negative comments and views, there was no way you were going to change that.............as in, not quite as certain as the sun rising in the East but way up there. When somebody doesn't care for you  in a mild sense, their minds are open to see positive attributes. When they hate you, there is nothing you can do to change their minds. 

Unless you have an incredible amount of people that really like you(not that likely with this scenario) the category that matters the most to staying in that position.........is to NOT have a significant strongly negative rating. 

Trump has an off the charts strongly negative rating that has been growing. I wonder if there are enough people left that don't hate Trump for him to win in November?

And they hate everything connected to him, including people in his party. Poll numbers can be deceptive, like they were in 2016 but this is entirely different because of the stratospheric numbers now in place of people that want the opposite of Trump and what he represents............because its the opposite of Trump. 



By metmike - July 13, 2020, 12:04 p.m.
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Funny story related to the focus groups/research they did at our station.

They would try to hide this from that person at times(if it was good news) so that come contract renewal time, that person did not have this most important metric to use as ammo. In 1985, I finished at #1 in this market for all news, weather and sports in their focus group results and they never showed me the results. My  3 year contract was renegotiated in September 1985.

However, a good friend, Stan Newman, was in management that knew my situation HAD seen the results, shared them with me at at his daughers bat mitzvah and told me "you have them by the balls"

And i used it against them. I went to our main competition, WFIE knowing they must have similar results to see what sort of offer I could get to use to negotiate with WEHT, my station. 

I met with them and they were not interested but it gave me the negotiating power.

When I met with our GM and news director, they wanted to renew, another 3 year contract at the same salary, $18,000. No kidding thats all those cheapskates wanted to pay. 

The previous 4 months, the news director, who was a horrible person, harrassed me and criticized me constantly. I thought he was trying to get me to quit until I found out about my ratings status. He was setting me up for contract negotiations, making me believe that I was not worth much. How else would I know?

So they made their offer and I said "I met with the GM and newsdirector of WFIE at the Hilltop restruant and they offered alot more than that( I made up the offer but not the meeting).

They were infuriated and called me a traiter and kicked me out of the office and tried to make me think I was going to be fired..............but they assumed that I knew nothing about the ratings and assumed that WFIE was after me for that reason, which is why my strategy was so powerful. No way they would let me go. 

So they called me back in and said that they spoke with the corporate office and bumped the offer up to 26,000 thinking that I would be thrilled..........but I told them WFIE offered alot more than that.

They were irate! Kicked me out and we went thru the same routine, then the offer went to 29,000 with me really wanting to take it but I decided to see how far I could push it and I knew that other anchors were making a ton more than me and that WFIE would probably have offered more.........so I said the same thing for the 3rd time.

Got kicked out, came back to an offer of 32,000 realizing this was the 4th offer in the course of the past 3 hours and it had to end sometime. 

This time, I told them that I would need to talk it over with my wife that night(who had no idea I was doing this). The news director, who intimidated all of his employees had enough and said, "I'm thru dicking around with you, call your wife on the phone now from my private office and give he your answer now!" 

Whoa....I hit the limit!

He waited outside the door. I called Deb and told her what just happened and that  I was going to accept a pay increase from 18K to 32K. I was trying not to be too loud because I was actually laughing out loud telling her the story and the news director, Jon Ester was on the other side of the door waiting for my response. I told him WE agreed to stay at WEHT and he gave me a handshake and all of a sudden, turned into my best friend. Same thing in the GM  Ernie Madden's office. He even gave me a hug and we had the numbers changed on the contract.

I was worth at least that much money but the best part of that story was the principle.....using their dishonest/underhanded tactics against them and won. 

I really had fun doing that job and used to tell kids at speaking engagements that I would do it for free but don’t tell my boss.

My wife was mad that they paid me so little but back then I didnt care about money and hav enever been materialistic.

She picked this house, bought everything in it, buys all my clothes....which I tell her to stop doing because I have too much already.

I buy food and outdoor tools/machines and repair items for the house.


By wglassfo - July 13, 2020, 12:26 p.m.
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If Biden is elected I hope he can stop the violence

Just reported a group of BLM had an encounter with a white group. Words were exchanged

Later BLM ambushed and shot a white mother with 3 yr old son

When will the shooting and killing stop

By wxdavid - July 13, 2020, 4:28 p.m.
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 WHO  reported  it?

 how do  we KNOW its BLM?

 what was said? 


If Biden is elected I hope he can stop the violence

Just reported a group of BLM had an encounter with a white group. Words were exchanged

Later BLM ambushed and shot a white mother with 3 yr old son

When will the shooting and killing stop

By mcfarm - July 13, 2020, 4:42 p.m.
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https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=24+Year+Mom+Shot+In+Indianapolis+By+BLM&qpvt=24+year+mom+shot+in+indianapolis+by+blm&FORM=EWRE


and basically it went unreported for days? Why you say? Narrative, does not fit the narrative. Several news outlet in town and hardly a one had the temerity to report on a 24 year mom being shot in the back of the head. Does not fit the narrative being pushed by some many helpless, soft snow flakes who cannot handle the truth.

By pj - July 13, 2020, 4:49 p.m.
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wxfollower: "Now if the Dems win in 2020 and the libs have too much control over policy and go too far left/anarchist/anti-police as an institution, look for the GOP to come back in 2022 and 2024. Maybe then we can get a Haley, Rubio, or Kasich and get back to a much saner GOP."

Or, perish the thought, maybe Trump would run again... ;-(


By mcfarm - July 13, 2020, 4:59 p.m.
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https://www.foxnews.com/us/indiana-woman-shot-killed-argument-black-lives-matter-supporters


notice this headline form ch 59.....Inpls women shot earlier this month......Please....Where are the protests, where is the looting, burning, raping, robbing. Hell where are the arrests of the bastards that shot her? Where is the mayor? Where is the city council? Hiding under their desks hoping this story goes away so they can get back to BLM that is where.

By wxdavid - July 13, 2020, 5:11 p.m.
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 you are extremely angry and obtuse - to the point that you seem refuse to think.  

I am sorry  you live in such fear of   anyone not white being  near you
 You seem to find  the  most ignorant headlines that  at  first matches up with your  race baiting
 white supremacists' ideas .

Then You don't read the rest of the story. Clearly in THIS case  you did NOT


 HEADLINE
Indiana woman shot, killed after argument with Black Lives Matter supporters, Family says

 the family says?  
so what?  
that's not proof at all


  from the story

A brief argument ensued until both sides separated after realizing the other was armed, Fox 59 reported. Ramirez claimed that both sides managed to resolve the argument before separating.

But minutes later, someone reportedly opened fire from a nearby bridge, striking Whitaker, before running away, the station said.


 please expain to us  how  SOMEONE IS  BLM?


Police have not independently verified whether the supposed argument over “Black Lives Matter” occurred or if the fatal shooting was even connected.



 dude  you  serious race issues  . You are a Bigot