My view is that the various weather models are not in good agreement with regard to the specifics of what's going to happen with regard to agricultural weather in the Plains and the Midwest over the next two weeks. But they are in agreement with the overall General pattern.
2-day rainfall == Friday to Sunday
As I stated last week the key feature here is a large trough with an embedded UPPER LOW that is swinging through western Canada and across the Canadian prairies into Manitoba. This feature is fairly strong and it will drive a cold front southward into the Plains and the Midwest over the next few days. The position of this cold front during the next several days is going to be critical and determining what happens with temperatures and rainfall between now and July 24.
The operational GFS model is most bullish or aggressive with this cold front driving it deep into the Plains and the Midwest. This in turn forces the heat Ridge or dome which everybody was talking about last week to be suppressed further to the South.
As a result large portions of Ohio Illinois Indiana Kentucky eastern Iowa southwest Wisconsin sees anywhere from 0.5 - 2.5 “/ 12-60mm of rain according to the GFS model. Lighter rains of 0.25-1.5”/ 6-38mm cover 50 to 60% of Nebraska eastern South Dakota and much of Minnesota. Let's be clear about this The reason WHY the GFS has so much rain Sunday afternoon run is because it drives a cold front deep into the Midwest and the central Plains during the next 7 days.
In the 6 to 10-day the GFS model has a band of 1-3”/ 25-75mm rains across central and eastern Nebraska into much of western and central Iowa and then into west-central Illinois. This is where the front is located so the model produces significant showers and thunderstorms right along the frontal boundary. South of the front is where the heat … while to the north of the front it is much cooler with temps in the 70s and low 80s.
Not surprisingly with the cold front that far to the south the temperatures are much cooler on the GFS model. For example over the next 14 days Des Moines Iowa does not go above 90 degrees on the GFS model. Neither does most of Illinois Indiana Ohio. Temperatures do reach 95 to 105 degrees in the western and central Dakotas.. western and central Nebraska ...all of Kansas Oklahoma Texas and the southern half of Missouri and all of Arkansas.
That is not the only viable solution however. Because the GFS loves to develop big troughs like this in the jet stream it ends up pushing cold fronts too far to the South which during the summer months produces a lot of rain.
The operational European model is the exact opposite. It is a blowtorch showing days and days of extreme heat in the heart of the Midwest. On July 16th the Euro has 95 degree isotherm along the Kansas Nebraska state line and through central Missouri down into southern Tennessee. However, by 17 July 95 degrees is in central Iowa and along the South Dakota Nebraska border as well as central Illinois. St Louis is 98 Springfield 96 and Indianapolis 94 degrees on the European model. Over the next several days the European model shows 95° + as far north of Chicago and Rockford. . And it shows an impressive stripe of 100-plus degree temperatures from eastern Colorado to St Louis and as far east as Evansville and this heat on the Euro last through July 22nd.
Why is the European model so hot?
. Because the cold front does not come as far south and so the Heat Ridge is not suppressed to the South. This means that the cold front is further to the north so the temperatures are much hotter south of the front. Indeed the European model rainfall over the next 5 days shows 0.5 -1.5”/ 12-38mm n with locally higher amounts covering 50 to 60% in the Nebraska Iowa Minnesota and Wisconsin and much less rain in Indiana Ohio Illinois and Missouri.
Not surprisingly in the 6-10ay all the rain on the European model 1-- 1-2”/ 25-75mm with 60 to 70 % coverage is in North Dakota South Dakota southern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin but nothing in the Nebraska Iowa Illinois Missouri most of Indiana or Ohio.
WHAT DoES THIS ALL MEAN?
the GFS Ensemble however shows a BIGGER heat ridge further north. It has temperatures in Des Moines getting to 92 degrees 95 in St Louis and Kansas City and 103 in Grand Island Nebraska on July 17th. Temperature stay like that with readings in a low to mid 90s in central and southern Illinois ...the southern half of Iowa into South Dakota right through July 25. And it even has temperatures above 105 degrees and portions of south central Nebraska much of Kansas and Oklahoma.
There is still some decent rain in Iowa Illinois Indiana southern Minnesota and Wisconsin over the next five days on the GFS Ensemble but 6 to 10 day has that rain shifted into Indiana Ohio and Kentucky western Illinois Iowa Missouri Nebraska Kansas South Dakota are all fairly dry if not completely dry.
The European ensemble is pretty close to the GFS ensemble. It has 0.5 to 1.5" /12-38mm rains along the Minnesota Iowa border across the South Dakota Nebraska border ...right into Chicago and Wisconsin into Michigan and Ohio. Everything south of that is dry and it's hot.
Interestingly the Canadian model is much closer to the European model in that it has a lot less rain over the heart of the Midwest and all of its rain in the 1-5 day and 6-10 day is further to the north much like the European. It also has temperatures in the low to mid-90s in all Nebraska much of Iowa into central and southern Illinois and southern Indiana starting on July 18th and continuing through July 22nd. It also has 100 + degree temperatures in central Nebraska Kansas Southern and Central Missouri and Oklahoma.
The Canadian is a pretty good compromise of all the model data.
SUMMARY
clearly the risk, if the GFS model is correct, is that there IS going to be more rain than what the forecast had last week for portions of the Midwest. This is a high-risk forecast for the next 7 to 10 days. If the front is further to the north like the European in the Canadian models then much of the Midwest will not see a lot of rain and it will see a lot of heat. But the GFS model could be correct . The RISK is that if the GFS model is correct then the threat to the corn crop is going to be reduced. The bust ability-- the risk of the forecast that you are counting from any source .. me … anyone being wrong is pretty high. A difference of 75 or 100 miles on this front is going to have huge implications after July 16th.
even if the GFS models are correct there is still going to be a lot of heat and not a lot of rain in Nebraska … South Dakota ...Kansas and central and southern Missouri. I am not an agronomist so I am not going to tell you how much of the Corn is grown there or what condition it is in but again even if the GFS model is correct for the next two weeks those areas are going to take a beating with this heat and lack of rain.
Top notch post Dave!
Much appreciated.
And I agree completely with your forecast philosophy!
For those not aware of it, Dave is a meteorologist that runs a private weather service for paying clients and is sharing some of that information with us.
Thanks David
Monsieur DAVID WX Sensei,
Breathtaking presentation of nature's atmospheric dynamics, Sir. Interpretation as relates to grain futures price trajectory is given foundation with your eloquent rendition of weather science. Apologies for my harsh response to prior posting. Which in fact, was bullseye correct in terms of the decline of grain price subsequently. In other words, you were right on target. I am not worthy, but grateful indeed for your attendance here at Met Mike's forum home!
For the record, long one Kansas City September wheat and long one Christmas Soybean Meal. Both still profitable, but both drained of much of the profit left unrealized just a few days ago.
Thanks for the post !
DUDE thansk for the kind words.
Its Just SCIENCE. Its for everyone !!!
Monsieur DAVID WX Sensei,
Breathtaking presentation of nature's atmospheric dynamics, Sir. Interpretation as relates to grain futures price trajectory is given foundation with your eloquent rendition of weather science. Apologies for my harsh response to prior posting. Which in fact, was bullseye correct in terms of the decline of grain price subsequently. In other words, you were right on target. I am not worthy, but grateful indeed for your attendance here at Met Mike's forum home!
For the record, long one Kansas City September wheat and long one Christmas Soybean Meal. Both still profitable, but both drained of much of the profit left unrealized just a few days ago.