KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
6:00 AM ET. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 97.5; previous 94.4)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -10.0%)
8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. June CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous -0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.1%; previous +1.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -6.9%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher but well off session highs on Monday despitenews from Pfizer that two Covid-19 vaccines it is developing with Bio-NTech received FDA “fast track” designation for the development of their vaccine candidates against Covid-19.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 16th high crossing at 26,611.03 are needed to renew the rally off the June 15th low. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,329.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th gap crossing at 26,938.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,329.29. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 24,843.18.
The September NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down on Monday due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,242.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,469.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,230.51.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday as falling tech stocks outweigh renewed hope for coronavirus vaccine. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3026.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3026.00. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 2925.70.
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September T-bonds closed up 5/32's at 180-00.
September T-bonds closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 181-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-22. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes closed up 25-pts. At 139.095.
September T-notes closed higher on Monday while extending the March-July trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.234 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070. Second support is June's low crossing at 136.220.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as OPEC countries indicated that they will be considering easing output restrictions as global crude demand has seen improvement as some economies have reopened from closures due to the coronavirus pandemic. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support isthe June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $35.39.
August heating oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.48.
August unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 132.53. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.02.
August Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extended the setback off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.728 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.895 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.895. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.728. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.655.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this year's decline, March's low crossing at 94.70 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 30th high crossing at 97.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 98.00. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.87. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.70.
The September Euro closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 23rd high crossing at 113.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.46 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 23rd high crossing at 113.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 113.97. First support is June's low crossing at 111.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.46.
The September British Pound closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.2694 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2445 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.2694. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. First support is June's low crossing at 1.2256. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 1.2161.
The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends the June-July trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0592 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0701. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.0513. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0472.
The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Monday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 23rd high crossing at 74.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 75.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.91. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-Friday's rally, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 0.0912 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher on Monday supported by a global rise in the number of COVID-19 cases and strong investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1777.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1829.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1777.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1749.30.
September silver closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, last-September's high crossing at 20.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.313 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 19.810. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 20.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.313. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.624.
September copper closed slightly higher on Monday due to a late-day sell off. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 279.96. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.79.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.9-cents at $3.35 3/4.
December corn gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday pressured by more rains in the short-term forecast for the Midwest. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39 1/2 confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.49 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance July's high crossing at 3.63. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at $3.73. First support is today's low crossing at $3.34 3/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2.
December wheat closed down $0.08-cents at $5.31.
December wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.05 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $5.42 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.16 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.05 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at $4.61.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.70 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.70 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.06 1/4-cents at $5.32.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low the June 18th high crossing at $5.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.16-cents at $8.74 3/4.
November soybeans gapped down and closed lower on Monday due to bearish weather forecasts for the Midwest this week. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.67 1/4 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.67 1/4. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $8.60 at $291.50.
December soybean meal gapped down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $293.00 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $312.30. First support is today's low at $291.10. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil closed down 16-pts. At 28.68.
December soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 29.64. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.74.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $1.65 at $51.53.
August hogs closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.76 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.94 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.94. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed down $0.08 at $99.93.
August cattle closed slightly lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.68. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.50-cents at $137.25.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends today's rally May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 29th low crossing at $130.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $136.73. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. First support is June's low crossing at $128.68. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 94.55. Closes above July's high crossing at 10.46 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term.
September cocoa closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 11.99 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.90 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine.
Weather is still bearish for grains and ng.
Corn crop rating dropped 2%. Beans down 3%.
Mondays weather: