KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, July 14, 2020  

6:00 AM ET. June NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (expected 97.5; previous 94.4)

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.9%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -10.0%)

8:30 AM ET. June Real Earnings

8:30 AM ET. June CPI

                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous -0.1%)

                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -1.8%)

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.1%)

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.1%; previous +1.2%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.6%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.3%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -6.9%)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.0M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"

The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's huge key reversal down. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at  10,271.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been  posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,532.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,271.36.

The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnightas it consolidates some of Monday's loss.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3026.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 8th high crossing at 3216.70. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3026.00. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 2925.70. 

INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"

INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes above the April-21^st high crossing at 181-15 or below June's low crossing at 170-30 are needed to confirm a breakout of the April-July trading range. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 181-15. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 189-24. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-22. Second support is the June 16^th low crossing at 174-29.

September T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.238 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. Closes above March's high crossing at 139.250 or below June's low crossing at 136.220 are needed to confirm a breakout of the March-July trading range. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.319. Second support is the 50-day moving average  crossing at 138.238.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight trading while extending the June-July trading range.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 25^th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $35.70.  

August heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the June 29^th low crossing at $112.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.10. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $128.72. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $112.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing  at $111.10.  

August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $132.53. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.87.  

August Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.725 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.924 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.924. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.725. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.517.    

CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"

CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the June 30^th high, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.88 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 30th high crossing at $97.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.93. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.88. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.71. 

The September Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $112.85 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 10th high crossing at $114.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58. First support is June's low crossing at $111.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.54.

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2445 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2952. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2445. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.  

The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0596 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0701. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0596. Second support is the June 30^th low crossing at 1.0513. Third support is the June 12^th low crossing at 1.0497.

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 72.95 is the next downside target.If September renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing  at 72.95. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.

The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912. 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"

PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight and trading below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at $1799.50. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1780.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1829.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1780.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1750.90.  

September silver was lower overnight and working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, last-September's high crossing at $20.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.390 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $19.810. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at $20.020. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $18.833. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.390. 

September copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7335 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.8218. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7335. 

GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains

December corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's loss. Monday's crop condition report showed a 2% decline in the good/excellent rating that helped to support the overnight short covering bounce. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of June's low crossing at $3.22. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.50 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July 2019-June 2020 decline crossing at $3.73. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.34 3/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.      

December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.06 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $5.42 3/4. Second resistance is .the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.16 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.06 1/2. 

December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight following a two-day correction off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.69 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.69 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.         

December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the June 18^th high crossing at $5.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.32. Second support is June's low crossing at $5.22 1/4.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the sharp decline off the past two-trading days. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.67 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.92 1/2 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.67 3/4. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.      

December soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $300.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at $299.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline  crossing at $306.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at $291.10 Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.      

December soybean oil was higher due to short covering overnight and is working on a possible key reversal up. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 29.64. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.34. Second support is the May 22^nd low crossing at 27.42. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $1.65 at $51.53. 

August hogs closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $50.76 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.94 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.94. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.    

August cattle closed down $0.08 at $99.93. 

August cattle closed slightly lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.68 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.68. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58.     

August Feeder cattle closed up $1.50-cents at $137.25. 

August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends today's rally May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at $138.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 29^th low crossing at $130.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $136.73. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $138.80. First support is June's low crossing at $128.68. Second support is May's low crossing at $125.30.        

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 94.55. Closes above July's high crossing at 10.46 would  open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term.

September cocoa closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.                

October sugar closed lower on Monday as it extends last-week's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below 50-day moving average crossing at 11.99 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 12.90 is the next upside target.              

December cotton closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.