Banks Ready for Wave of Coronavirus Defaults
Wall Street Journal: “JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. said Tuesday they took large hits to their second-quarter profits to collectively stockpile $28 billion to cover losses as consumers and businesses start to default on their loans.”
“The provisions amount to a sharp increase above what they put away in the first three months of the year, reflecting a shift in their assumptions about the length and severity of the pandemic’s economic toll. JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank by assets, said it put aside extra to prepare for an unemployment rate that remains at double digits well into next year and a slower recovery in gross domestic product than the bank’s economists assumed three months ago.”
small Business Owners Are Giving Up
New York Times: “The resurgence of the virus, especially in states such as Texas, Florida and California that had begun to reopen, has introduced a far darker reality for many small businesses: Their temporary closures might become permanent.”
“Nearly 66,000 businesses have folded since March 1, according to data from Yelp, which provides a platform for local businesses to advertise their services and has been tracking announcements of closings posted on its site. From June 15 to June 29, the most recent period for which data is available, businesses were closing permanently at a higher rate than in the previous three months, Yelp found. During the same period, permanent closures increased by 3 percent overall, accounting for roughly 14 percent of total closures since March.”
“Researchers at Harvard believe the rates of business closures are likely to be even higher. They estimated that nearly 110,000 small businesses across the country had decided to shut down permanently between early March and early May, based on data collected in weekly surveys by Alignable, a social media network for small-business owners.”
just for the heck of it ever consider how many small businesses have folded because of blm and co? doubt it. Ever considered how many are on the verge of coming back stronger but know we have weak kneed pols so scared they are talking closing down again? Ever consider the mental costs of a country closing down in mental health, drug and alcohol addiction, suicide...hell even addiction of gov checks for staying home. Wife and her wanted go to eat 2 days ago. Could not get in because they only had 2 waiters in the place. 27 others refused to come back after the shut down because the gov check was so easy....they think hit will hit them sonner or later.
The problem as some see the market rally, is the thinking that market prices have separated from the reality of the real economy. High valuations times estimated or actual earnings for the majority of stks make no sense but when does the market crash???
Some banks are for casting a slower recovery, perhaps into 2022 as an optimistic senerio, before we get back to even of 2019 pre-corona, perhaps even if a vaccine is found
The market is assuming the Fed and congress will spend what ever is needed to buy mostly corp bonds and even market assets, plus other purchases called the :Powell put"
Then of course you have the Robinhood crowd
The doom sayers have thrown in the towel and went long the market. Some are taking insur, what ever that may be
However, we all know the market often hurts the most people. When your sho shine boy gives stk tips, you know how that goes
Today the Robin hood crowd might be your shoe shine boy
yes Wayne...."the market always goes to the level to hurt the most people"...Charlie serginer [sp]
And when does the market start discounting the possibility/probability that Biden wins and maybe the Dems win a lot of other races too.
I don't think Wall St sees any advantage with a Dem win
Bidens policy statement scares Wall St.
More stimulus spending as long as it takes
A green project that requires immediate funding for any and all start up green projects
Eliminate fossil fuel by 2050 with a major effort in spending immediately
Open borders which will cost ?? in welfare and other benefits
Warren policy of get tough on Wall St [what ever that means] even if not VP her get tough policy was included
Biden policy has a lot of socialism to please AOC/Bernie crowd which managed to be included and Biden wants those votes
Biden policy is a kettle full of a wish list for as many voters as possible, even if he can't follow through, since when did that stop his target voter thinking their wish list will happen
I think the virus will be here come Nov and stimulus will be very important
Of coarse Trump could offer the same stimulus or actually send out cheques just prior to the election
Game Show Host Announces Son Tested Positive after tweeting it was a hoax to stop trump
“Former game show host Chuck Woolery announced his son has tested positive for COVID-19, just days after Woolery accused medical professionals and Democrats of lying about the virus in an effort to hurt the economy and President Trump’s reelection chances,” The Hill reports.
“Woolery has since deleted his Twitter account following the announcement about his son.”
The reason why I occasionally stop by this board is to see if anything has changed over the years. And it remains small relatively inactive and everybody on the group has the exact same general opinion.
What's even worse is that when you come across outright naked bigotry and racism from a deranged right wing nutcase like Mcfarm whom I have caught twice now posting stories which actually contradict his Claim about BLM…. it doesn't really seem to bother you.
I think the breaking point for me here is the fact that I suffer from dyslexia. And the people who have known me such as wx follower-- know that I do suffer from dyslexia. In fact in the past, I'm pretty sure I even told you.
In the NTR section when I came up with the wrong number about the number of countries and I did not detect my typo because again you don't often see that stuff when you have dyslexia TIM attacked me in pretty outrageous manner. Since there are not more than 135 countries in the world it is/ was obvious that the figure of 4093 that I posted was a typo. Yet you allowed that ridiculous attack upon me for no reason.
Timnew " Except you wrote the 4903rd country (I copied and pasted your text, odd you seem to glaze over that) and as we all know, Trump tried to do it early, in Feb, but received a lot of resistance, as always. So, you're intentionally misleading on that one,
I see you went back and edited your OP, so it appears you are intentionally dishonest with us, but even worse, I suspect you are dishonest with yourself."
I think you allowing and defending Tim’s personal attack on me … a person who suffers from a disability like dyslexia is a pretty low life thing to do.
when I came back to a group 2 weeks ago I did not know that I was the only non right-wing idiot conservative in the group. Yes I know you claim not to be but the fact that you allow conspiracy bigotted driven rantings from others is pretty bad
What you fail to understand is that my first comments in the NTR were not that aggressive. But when it's four ...five ...and six to one against ./..the piling-on can cause a reaction.
Since you run the board and since you are conservative and since you don't allow or tolerate any dissent you don't have to worry about this kind of reaction.
You tolerate outright bigotry and Prejudice in the NTR . And you certainly don't allow for any dissent. Undoubtedly you are going to point to me and talk about my comments but the fact is you don't have any moderate or liberals in your group that post on a regular basis. In fact in the two weeks that I've been posting I haven't seen any other moderate or liberal person Post in the NTR section
Not one
Reminding me that you have had a trump bashing thread is pretty pointless. -- I mean what is the point of having a Tump bashing thread ? There are SERIOUS differences between liberals and conservatives -- things like the nature of govt and taxes and wealth. And after going back in the NTR over the past year I have yet to see any post on any topic on these issues that was started by someone who is NOT a trump/ kook conservative.
Just imagine what the reaction would be from your regular posters if somebody were to make a comment about say corporate socialism
I belong to several other serious commodity trading boards some of which you may not be aware of and I don't have that problem because when kooks and conspiracy nuts post their rantings the comments are moderated or blocked or deleted. They don't get protected by the moderators which is what you do on a regular basis here.
I am done.
yes you are done wx. And if you cannot see by this late date its by your own doing that is really sad. We need someone or several like you here but they need to be honest and know what they believe. This very post is a prime example. Filled to the top with extreme left wing leaning by someone who claims be very conservative and has been for decades. Obviously something in not quite right with you statements. There is no need to come much like vandy did and not be honest. You do that and your done. Which you are,,,,,done. Also MM gave you plenty of time to get this on the non trading section and you chose not to, so you might as well attack him now when he takes this down because its hardly trade related. Damn you sound like a very unhappy person, Canada will be surprised when you get there.
WX
I want your thoughts about my two posts in this thread
My 1st was an honest opinion about your Wall St rally
Then some body asked about a Dem win
I posted my opinion about a Dem win
Now there will be a lot to disagree with on both my posts
After all it was my opinion, and opinions are a dime a dozen
Can you say I am a Trump supporter when I don't get a vote. Trump has never been very friendly to Canada. So be it. I think our prime minister is about to depart in the next election, or maybe just wish full thinking on my part
Maybe you think I support Trump but IMO he is the best of two bad choices
However I try to say what I think regardless
Ask McFarm or anybody who remembers my posts during the Canada/USA/Mexico trade talks what I thought about Trump
Also, ask about when I tried to convince the forum the USA would be much better off if the USA followed the example of our Canadian Health and medical system
Sorry about your handicap. I did not know