KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 16, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1008.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1334.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 251.1K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1250K; previous 1314K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -99K)
Continuing Claims (previous 18062000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -698K)
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +5.2%; previous +17.7%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +5.0%; previous +12.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +12.4%)
8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 20.0; previous 27.5)
Prices Paid (previous 11.1)
Employment (previous -4.3)
New Orders (previous 16.7)
Prices Received (previous 11.0)
Delivery Times (previous 0.4)
Inventories (previous 0.0)
Shipments (previous 25.3)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 62; previous 58)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected -2.3%; previous -1.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3133B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +56B)
4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, July 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.15M; previous 0.974M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +18.1%; previous +4.3%)
Building Permits (expected 1.28M; previous 1.220M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +4.9%; previous +14.4%)
10:00 AM ET. June Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 77.8; previous 78.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 73.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.8)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as US/China trade tensions remain contentious ahead of the latest decision from the European Central Bank. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,336.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,336.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9,824.74.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnightas it consolidates some of its rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3122.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.56. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3169.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3122.38.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broad perspective, closes above the April-21st high crossing at 181-15 or below June's low crossing at 170-30 are needed to confirm a breakout of the April-July trading range. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 181-15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178-21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-23.
September T-notes were slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.248 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. Closes above March's high crossing at 139.250 or below June's low crossing at 136.220 are needed to confirm a breakout of the March-July trading range. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.028. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.248.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $36.27.
August heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 29th low crossing at $112.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $128.72. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $112.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.28.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $132.53. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $141.79. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.31.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.924 are needed to renew the rally off June's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.734 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.924. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.960. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.734. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.517.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off the June 30th high crossing at $97.81. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the June 30th high, March's low crossing at $94.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.77. Second resistance is the June 30th high crossing at $97.81. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at $95.88. Second support is March's low crossing at $94.71.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at $115.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at $114.58. Second resistance is the March high crossing at $115.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.01. Second support is June's low crossing at $111.90.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2450 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2952. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2450. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.
The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading following Wednesday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0601 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1.0701. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0601. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.0513. Third support is the June 12th low crossing at 1.0497.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.07. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1789.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1829.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1789.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1754.80.
September silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, last-September's high crossing at $20.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.596 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $19.870. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at $20.020. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $19.125. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.596.
September copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7630 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.8518. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.7630.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's loss. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.45 1/2 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.45 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $3.30 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's sharp decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.11 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.26 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.11 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.74 3/4 would renew the rally off June's low. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $4.56. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the June 18th high crossing at $5.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $5.22 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight due to short covering. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.92 3/4 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.69 1/2 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.69 1/2. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $299.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $299.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $290.70 Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 29.91 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 29.67. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 29.91. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.44. Second support is the May 22nd low crossing at 27.42.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.25 at $50.18.
August hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.33 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $54.33. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed up $3.00 at $101.80.
August cattle closed limit up on Wednesday as it posted a key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.95 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $101.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.95. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58.
August Feeder cattle closed up $3.10-cents at $139.83.
August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $133.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $139.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $133.53. Second support is June's low crossing at $128.67.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 94.55. Closes above July's high crossing at 10.46 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term.
September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.70 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.