KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 20, 2020
1130/1530 Federal Reserve Board of Governors closed meeting
Tuesday, July 21, 2020
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -9.8%)
8:30 AM ET. June CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 2.61)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -6.65)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -5.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -5.5%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Senate Banking Committee votes on Federal Reserve Board nominees
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.0M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Friday due to disappointing consumer sentiment data while weighing the potential for additional fiscal stimulus in the U.S. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 8th high crossing at 27,580.21 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,567.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 27,071.33. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,567.73. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 24,843.18.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,368.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,368.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9858.77.
The September S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3120.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3227.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3120.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3048.35.
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September T-bonds closed down 13/32's at 179-26.
September T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 181-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-25. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes closed down 30-pts. At 139.120.
September T-notes closed lower on Friday while extending the March-July trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.254 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.254. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.
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August crude oil closed lower on Friday due to concerns over rising cases of COVID-19 that could lead to further economic shutdowns and lower demand for crude in the future. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support isthe June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $36.54.
August heating oil closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.25 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $112.85.
August unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 132.53. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.90. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 111.28.
August Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.730 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the July 7th high crossing at 1.924 are needed to renew the rally off June's low.First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 1.924. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.960. First support is July's low crossing at 1.655. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.517.
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The September Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, March's low crossing at 94.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.69. Second resistance is the June 30th high crossing at 97.81. First support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 95.87. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.70.
The September Euro closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 115.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.58. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.64. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.12.
The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2455 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.2694. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. First support isthe 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2455. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.
The September Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Friday erasing this week's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 1.0579 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at 1.0701. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.0513. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0499.
The September Canadian Dollar closed unchanged on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 23rd high crossing at 74.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 23rd high crossing at 74.17. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.13. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
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August gold closed higher on Friday due to weakness in the US Dollar. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1792.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 8th high crossing at $1829.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1792.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1756.90.
September silver closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, last-September's high crossing at 20.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.694 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 19.870. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 20.020. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.261. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.694.
September copper closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 277.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 286.91. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 277.83.
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December Corn closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $3.39 3/4.
December corn closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.44 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this week's decline, June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.44 1/2. July's high crossing at 3.63. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $3.30 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2.
December wheat closed up $0.0 1/2-cents at $5.41 1/4.
December wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.12 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.29 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.12 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down a $0.00 1/4-cent at $4.60.
December Kansas City wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 3/4. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $5.27.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at $5.22 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off June's low the June 18th high crossing at $5.49 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $5.22 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
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November soybeans closed up $0.05-cents at $8.96.
November soybeans closed higher for the fourth day in row on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.91 3/4 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.70 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $0.50 at $294.30.
December soybean meal closed lower on Friday ending a three-day bounce off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $298.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews Monday's decline June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $298.20. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. First support is Wednesday's low at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil closed up 74-pts. At 30.58.
December soybean oil closed higher for the fourth day in a row on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 30.63. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.52.
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August hogs closed down $1.15 at $52.50.
August hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed down $0.18 at $103.25.
August cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.34. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.20-cents at $142.88.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $143.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $137.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.05.
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September coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 10.46 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 94.55.
September cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.70 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.