KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Monday, July 20, 2020 

1130/1530           Federal Reserve Board of Governors closed meeting

Tuesday, July 21, 2020 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.2%)

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -9.8%)

8:30 AM ET. June CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 2.61)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -6.65)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +3.0%)

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -5.5%)

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -5.5%)

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Senate Banking Committee votes on Federal Reserve Board nominees

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.3M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.6M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.0M)

Wednesday, July 22, 2020  

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx (previous 815.5)

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +5.1%)

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 305.4)

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -6.1%)

                       Refinance Idx (previous 3774.3)

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +11.9%)

9:00 AM ET. May U.S. Monthly House Price Index

10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting

10:00 AM ET. June Existing Home Sales

                       Existing Sales (expected 4.55M; previous 3.91M)

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +16.4%; previous -9.7%)

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.8)

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 284600)

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 531.688M)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.493M)

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 248.535M)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.147M)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 176.809M)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.453M)

                       Refinery Usage (previous 78.1%)

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.48M)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.36M)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,623.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  Closes above the June 8th high crossing at 27,580.21 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 27,071.33. Second  resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,623.77. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at 24,843.18.  

The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Monday as it posted a new high close for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,419.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,419.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9895.50.    

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3126.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3227.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 3237.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3126.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3056.14.

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

September T-bonds closed up 13/32's at 180-04.

September T-bonds closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing  at 177-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at 181-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-25. Second support is the June 16^th low crossing at 174-29.

September T-notes closed up 15-pts. At 139.130.

September T-notes closed higher on Monday while extending the March-July trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics  and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.258 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.258. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.           

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends the June-July trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the June 25th low crossing at $37.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $41.25. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.20. First support isthe June 25th low crossing at $37.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $36.83. 

August heating oil closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 6th high crossing at $125.83. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $128.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.35. Second support is the 50-day moving  average crossing at $113.47. 

August unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 141.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 132.53. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 141.79. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.49. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at 111.28.  

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 1.517. Closes above the July 7^th high crossing at 1.924 are needed to renew the rally off June's low.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.840. Second resistance is the July 7^th high crossing at 1.924. First support is today's low crossing at 1.605. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.517. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, March's low crossing at 94.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.76. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.60. First support is today's low crossing at 95.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 94.70. 

The September Euro closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 115.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 114.58. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.24. 

The September British Pound closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2461 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 16^th high crossing at 1.2694. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. First support isthe 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2461. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.  

The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low  crossing at 1.0579 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at 1.0701. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0759. First support is the June 30^th low crossing at 1.0513. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0506.

The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 23^rd high crossing at 74.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 23^rd high crossing at 74.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.17. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.  

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold closed higher on Monday due to weakness in the US Dollar. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5^th low, monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1795.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 8th high crossing at $1829.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1832.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1795.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1758.60.

September silver closed sharply higher on Monday as it posted a new contract high while extending the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance marked by the July 2016 high crossing at 21.225 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.809 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 20.335. Second resistance is the July 2016 high crossing at 21.225. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.432. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.809.   

September copper closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength. If September extends the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 279.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 288.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 279.33. 

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $3.35 1/2. 

December corn closed lower on Monday ending a three-day bounce off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this week's decline, June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.42 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.42 1/4. July's high crossing at 3.63. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.30 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2.    

December wheat closed down $0.12-cents at $5.28 1/2.  

December wheat closed lower on Monday after rain expected across portions of  the Plains along with harvest progress in the U.S. and overseas triggered technical selling. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.17 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/2.       

December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.13-cents at $4.47.

December Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 1/2 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is today's low crossing at $4.43 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.     

December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.06-cents at $5.21. 

December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday and posted a new low for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18^th high crossing at $5.49. First support is today's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.         

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed up $0.05-cents at $9.00.

November soybeans closed higher for the fifth day in row on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Monday's low crossing at $8.71 1/2, July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. If November renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.71 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.71 3/4. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.

December soybean meal closed up $3.10 at $297.20. 

December soybean meal posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $297.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews last-week's decline, June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $297.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. First support is last-Wednesday's low at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.      

December soybean oil closed down 12-pts. At 30.41. 

December soybean oil posted a downside reversal as it closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.59.      

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed down $2.39 at $50.43. 

August hogs closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower  opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.    

August cattle closed down $0.73 at $102.55. 

August cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.39. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58.     

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.90-cents at $141.80. 

August Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $143.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $138.12. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.11.        

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower  opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 10.46 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 94.55. 

September cocoa closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.03 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.97 is the next upside target. If September renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.                

October sugar closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.70 is the next downside target.              

December cotton closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.