KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 23, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1300K; previous 1300K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -10K)
Continuing Claims (previous 17338000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -422K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1636.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1080.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 764.4K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.8%)
Leading Index (previous 99.8)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -1.9%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3178B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +45B)
11:00 AM ET. July Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 2)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 14)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 9)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, July 24, 2020
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 52.0; previous 49.6)
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 51.0; previous 46.7)
10:00 AM ET. June New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 702K; previous 76K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +3.8%; previous +16.6%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.6)
N/A Utah Pioneer Day
Monday, July 27, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +15.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +15.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +4.0%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -6.1)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 13.6)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as Strong Earnings overshadow rising U.S.-China Tensions. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,532.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,532.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9,996.98.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3162.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3218.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3162.22.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to higher opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broad perspective, closes above the April-21st high crossing at 181-15 or below June's low crossing at 170-30 are needed to confirm a breakout of the April-July trading range. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 181-15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-30.
September T-notes were slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.275 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 139.250 or below June's low crossing at 136.220 are needed to confirm a breakout of the March-July trading range. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.089. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.275.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates around the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 10th low crossing at $38.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the July 10th low crossing at $38.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $37.95.
September heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $129.95. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $131.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.59.
September unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at $130.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $130.90. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $142.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.53. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $110.99.
September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 1.583 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.866 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.770. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.866. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it approaches key support marked by March's low crossing at $94.71. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline below key support marked by March's low crossing at $94.71 it could set up a potential bear trap due to the oversold condition of the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.45. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $97.29. First support is March's low crossing at $94.71. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the September 2018 low crossing at 93.39.
The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $117.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $116.16. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $117.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $114.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $113.66.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2484 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2952. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2484. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.
The September Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0850 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0579 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0807. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 1.0850. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0579. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0532.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the June 26th low crossing at 72.92. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.36. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher for the fifth trading session in a row overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, the all-time high price crossing at $1923.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1887.90. Second resistance is the all-time high price crossing at $1923.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1825.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.40.
September silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance marked by the August 2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 25.120 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.520 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $23.670. Second resistance is the August 2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 25.120. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $20.569. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.520.
September copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8359 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8359. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.6464.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.30. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.45. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.88 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off last-Monday's low, July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.88 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.74.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $297.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $297.00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $290.70 Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.86. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.34.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $1.00 at $52.48.
August hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed down $0.13 at $101.73.
August cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.50. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $93.58.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.45-cents at $141.78.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $136.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $143.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $139.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $136.72.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the previous high crossing at 10.46 signaling that the short-term trend has turned higher. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, June's high crossing at 11.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the July 15 low crossing at 96.30 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.88 is the next upside target. If September renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.70 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.