KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, July 24, 2020
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 52.0; previous 49.6)
9:45 AM ET. July US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 51.0; previous 46.7)
10:00 AM ET. June New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 702K; previous 76K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +3.8%; previous +16.6%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.6)
N/A Utah Pioneer Day
Monday, July 27, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +15.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +15.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +4.0%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -6.1)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 13.6)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday as investors sold tech companies following weeks of nearly never ending gains. Small-cap companies were the benefactors of some of the selling. The weekly report on news jobless benefit claims posted its first increase in weeks. The Labor Department data showed 1.42 million Americans filed for first-time benefits, a rise of 109,000 of those seeking benefits since late March. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 8th high crossing at 27,580.21 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,196.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 27,071.33. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,625.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,196.98.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,552.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 11,058.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,552.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9990.39.
The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3162.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3162.22. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3086.10.
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September T-bonds closed up 20/32's at 181-08.
September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at 181-14. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-30.
September T-notes closed up 20-pts. At 139.200.
September T-notes closed higher on Thursday while extending the March-July trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high crossing at 139.250 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.275 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at 139.225. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.275. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.
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September crude oil closed lower following an unexpected rise in U.S. crude inventories along with a sharp growth in the number of U.S. cases of coronavirus that point to the potential for further business shutdowns lowering the prospects for energy demand. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. Closes below the July 10th low crossing at $38.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $42.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $37.94. Second support is the June 15th low crossing at $35.07.
September heating oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $145.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $123.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.56.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off April's low, June's high crossing at 130.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 130.90. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 142.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.49. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 110.99.
September Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.868 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 1.583. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.868 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.868. Second resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 1.989. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583.
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The September Dollar closed lower on Thursday and spiked below the March 9th low on Thursday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the September 2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 93.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.44 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.44. First support is today's low crossing at 94.54. Second support is the September 2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 93.39.
The September Euro closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 117.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 116.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 117.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.67.
The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 1.2819 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2485 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.2819. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2952. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2485. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.2256.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0850 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0579 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0831. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 1.0850. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.0579. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0532.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off June's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, June's high crossing at 75.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.98. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 75.10. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.36. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at 72.92.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 0.0944 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0945. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0925. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.0912.
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August gold closed higher for the fifth day in a row on Thursday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the June 5th low, the all-time high price crossing at $1923.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1897.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $1923.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1825.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1809.60.
September silver closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline crossing at 26.220 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.503 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 23.670. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline crossing at 26.220. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.532. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.503.
September copper closed lower on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.49 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 264.60.
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December Corn closed up $0.00 3/4-cents at $3.35 1/2.
December corn closed fractionally higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 1/2. July's high crossing at 3.63. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.30. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.13 1/2.
December wheat closed down $0.04-cents at $5.35 3/4.
December wheat posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.07-cents at $4.52 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday ending a two-day rebound off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is Monday's low crossing at $4.43 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.04 3/4-cents at $5.23 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday ending a two-day rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
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November soybeans closed up $0.05-cents at $9.00 1/2.
November soybeans closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Monday's low crossing at $8.71 1/2, July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. If November renews the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.74. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $4.10 at $298.30.
December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at $297.20 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $287.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 13th gap crossing at $299.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. First support is last-Wednesday's low at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil closed down 18-pts. At 30.36.
December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal down hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.83. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.33.
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August hogs closed up $1.75 at $54.40.
August hogs closed higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $53.29 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's rally, June's high crossing at $58.03 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at $44.76 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $54.95. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is June's low crossing at $47.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at $44.76.
August cattle closed down $0.58 at $100.92.
August cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.50.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.38-cents at $141.88.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $143.83. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $140.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $137.18.
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September coffee closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends Wednesday's rally, May's high crossing at 11.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.02 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.84 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 20.89 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 10.70 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.34 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.