gdp estimate
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Started by bear - July 23, 2020, 4:43 p.m.

both the fed and the markets are predicting a drop of 35% on gdp for the second quarter.  

By metmike - July 23, 2020, 7:23 p.m.
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Thanks bear!

This looks like a great link/information.

By TimNew - July 24, 2020, 11:18 a.m.
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I fully expect further upward revisions as we continue to get final metrics for Q2,  but we'll see negative double digit, (best case 25-30) for the worst GDP quarterly drop in history.  I also think it's entirely possible we'll see positive GDP growth for Q3 for the most abrupt turnaround in history.

By wglassfo - July 24, 2020, 11:40 a.m.
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Why would Q3 be different  [much better]

By TimNew - July 24, 2020, 12:08 p.m.
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Because starting in late June, just about every metric used to measure GDP turned sharply upward and they continue that trajectory. 

By wglassfo - July 24, 2020, 5 p.m.
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Unfortunately the corona virus is going to change your metrics

Re-opening has had many problems that won't be solved by the next quarter

It is sort of like a tug of war between those who want to open and those who can't seem to do anything because of fear

You and I know that open up and get things moving will do wonders for the economy

However, I think the fear factor is bigger and stronger. The fear factor will stop the economy, mostly dead in it's tracks

Housing is strong

That is a sign of fear as those who can afford are  running for the hills or away from their fears

In our small shop doing business with large corp., plus others, they keep asking us what if this or that happens. Even though orders are less, [since the corona stopped many sales] with no sign of improvement, our buyers have this fear factor. The small world of  of specialized fabrication [which we do for a good product] is worried if we can't produce. They are not looking to expand orders. This is a world wide corp which sees no sign of more sales. The competition is limited as large corp usually have a hand full of  world competitors and everybody sees no improvement. Trust me they talk to each other

Your dining room table would seat every CEO at one sitting, plus room for you and your hostess

By TimNew - July 24, 2020, 8:29 p.m.
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I prefer to use real data.

You are welcome to use any imagined data you like.

In the meanwhile,  I'll buy all you want to sell at the bargain price I am sure you are wiling to offer.

TIA  :-)

By wglassfo - July 24, 2020, 10:16 p.m.
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I won't argue my imagination vs your real data

I tried to say your date will not continue the trajectory

I grant you my imagination can't be proven as it hasn't happened yet

I suppose we will have to wait for a bit and see

You always bring good data to the forum 

Your data is correct, thus far

And no, we do not sell at a discount

Bid and contract to deliver

Bids never discounted

A generous gov't worker payment plan much the same as  your country keeps the folks working and paid

By TimNew - July 25, 2020, 6:36 a.m.
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The stimulus that took place in April is certainly a factor but the increase in economic activity currently taking place in the 2nd qtr far exceeds the total amount of the stimulus. For example,   how much are the 4.5 million existing homes and 776k new homes worth?   While significant,  that number is a small subset of current economic activity and it is just one number that has increased significantly.

I continue to question the ecosignificance of a virus that appears to have a 99+% rate of survival.  Granted, media hype and government overreach could be a factor,  but I think the majority of the population will need a  lot more "convincing" than was required in March/April.