KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 27, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +15.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +15.5%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +4.0%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -6.1)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 13.6)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight ahead of a big earnings week. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,050.01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,672.63 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,672.63. Second resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 11,058.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,301.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,050.01.
The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3176.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3176.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at3100.54.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher in overnight trading as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to higher opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broad perspective, closes above the April-21st high crossing at 181-15 or below June's low crossing at 170-30 are needed to confirm a breakout of the April-July trading range. First resistance is the April 21st high crossing at 181-15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-00.
September T-notes were slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at 139.250 or below June's low crossing at 136.220 are needed to confirm a breakout of the March-July trading range. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.109 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 139.250. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.109. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.283.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates around the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 10th low crossing at $38.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $41.72. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the July 10th low crossing at $38.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $38.44.
September heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $129.95. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $131.31. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $118.68.
September unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends last-week's rally, June's high crossing at $130.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $130.90. Second resistance is the 62%retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $142.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.79. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $110.99.
September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.860 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 1.583 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.860. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1.989. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the September 2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 93.39 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $95.31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $96.10. First support is the overnight low crossing at $93.71. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the September 2018 low crossing at 93.39.
The September Euro was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $117.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $116.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $117.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $115.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $114.13.
The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2952 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2598 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.2879. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.2952. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2683. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2597.
The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading and working on a potential downside reversal as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 1.0945 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0673 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0924. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1.0945. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0727. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0673.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the June 26th low crossing at 72.92. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.99. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.50.
The September Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight and trading above resistance marked by June's high crossing at 0.0944. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0951. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0937. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0934.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:August gold posted a new all-time record high overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The rally off July's low has been fueled byinvestor concerns over the state of the COVID-19, a weakened global economy and concerns over the staying power of stock gains. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1823.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1941.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1848.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1823.60.
September silver was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, weekly resistance marked by the August 2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 25.120 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.074 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $24.820. Second resistance is the August 2013 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 25.120. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.439. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.074.
September copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8569 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.8569. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.6671.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight due weakness in the U.S. Dollar. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.42 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.42 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.30. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.25 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.25 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.63 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.45. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. If Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 10th high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.92 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.92 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.76 1/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.70 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $306.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. First support is July's low crossing at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.13. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.52.