What do you think the Fed will do??
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Started by wglassfo - July 28, 2020, 4:50 p.m.

Unless the trend changes as USD continues down and gold up, the Fed has a decision to make [mostly dollar down] concerns the Fed [I think] although how much down before some thing happens or does not happen I do not know

 The Fed is forced to print as congress spends, the deficit increases, you know the story. That is mostly a given especially if Biden wins the election

So: Does the Fed raise int rates to slow the spending

Does the Fed keep int rates the same and risk higher inflation

I think some body from the Fed said they would monitor inflation using a new method of averaging inflation over  [say a 5 yr period going back 4 yrs and then average] recent yrs have inflation at less than the Fed wishes according to their method of measuring inflation YOY

If this does indeed become the new inflation guide, and not some trial balloon, one would think the Fed will choose inflation over higher int rates

Also another factor to consider

Higher int rates would take the legs out of any hope of a speedy recovery

Finally the Fed is known to kick the can down the road

Considering all of this:

I think the Fed will not increase int rates and if a speedy recovery is not evident, then negative int rates might be on the table

I also think we will have higher inflation than what is considered normal

I wish I did not have so much corn sold for 2021 delivery, but after that corn is delivered, I expect higher prices for both corn, machinery and inputs. All we do is handle more money

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