KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, July 30, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected -34.8%; previous -5.0%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +0.2%; previous +1.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous -3.5%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.7%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous -6.8%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1435K; previous 1416K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +109K)
Continuing Claims (previous 16197000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1107K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2547.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2665.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 616.7K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3215B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +37B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, July 31, 2020
8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected -0.9%; previous -4.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +5.0%; previous +8.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.0%; previous +1%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.8%)
ECI, Y/Y% (expected +2.8%)
9:45 AM ET. July ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 44.0; previous 36.6)
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 72.4; previous 78.1)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 72.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 87.1)
3:00 PM ET. June Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -9.0%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates unchanged and reiterated its promise to keep rates near zero until the threat of the coronavirus to the U.S. economy has passed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,386.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the June 8th high crossing at 27,580.21 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. First resistance is the July 15th high crossing at 27,071.33. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,386.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,002.89.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If September renews last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,108.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 11,058.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,301.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,108.56.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3192.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3192.25. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3114.03.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 4/32's at 181-18.
September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 181-30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-04.
September T-notes closed up 45-pts. At 139.270.
September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday while extending the March-July trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.294 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 139.255. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.119. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.294.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. Closes below the July 10th low crossing at $38.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $42.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $38.81. Second support is the July 10th low crossing at $38.77.
September heating oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $145.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $124.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.43.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, June's high crossing at 130.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 130.90. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 142.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.58. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 110.99.
September Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.852 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends today's rally, the July 7th high crossing at 1.989 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.789 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 1.989. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May/June decline crossing at 2.042 is the next upside target. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.72. First support is today's low crossing at 93.42. Second support is the May 14th 2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12.
The September Euro closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 118.19. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.98. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.65.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2658 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3017. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2761. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2659.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the September 2018 high crossing at 1.1229 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0712 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0984. Second resistance is the September 2018 high crossing at 1.1229. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0790. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0712.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, June's high crossing at 75.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.64.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher for the fifth day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0937 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0955. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0940. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0937.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher for the ninth-day in a row on Wednesday and posted a new all-time high close as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1839.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1974.90. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1877.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1840.00.
September silver closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.692 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 26.275. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 22.398. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.692.
September copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.87 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 287.87. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 268.89.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down a $0.03 3/4-cents at $3.26 1/4.
December corn closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline due to favorable crop condition report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.41. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.63. First support is today's low crossing at $3.26. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.
December wheat closed up $0.08 1/2-cents at $5.38 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.29 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.08 1/4-cents at $4.55 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally near-term. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.43 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.05-cents at $5.24 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.1 1/4-cents at $8.86 1/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it extends Tuesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.77 3/4 is the next downside target. If November renews the rally off the July 13th low crossing at $8.71 1/2, July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.77 3/4. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $1.70 at $295.80.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off the July 15th low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July 15th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $303.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. First support is the July 15th low at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil closed up 17-pts. At 30.09.
December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.01.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed down $1.15 at $53.05.
August hogs gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at $58.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $55.28. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $51.35. Second support is June's low crossing at $47.52.
August cattle closed up $0.95 at $101.85.
August cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $100.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.74.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.38-cents at $142.08.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday leaving Monday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $143.85. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $144.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $138.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.26.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, May's high crossing at 11.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.25 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the June 26th high crossing at 23.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.93 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
October sugar closed unchanged on Wednesday as it extends the June-July trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 12.40 or below July's low crossing at 11.27 would confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends last-week's decline, the June-15th low crossing at 57.75 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Tons of rain southern half of the corn belt not much rain northern half. No extreme heat.
Temps around neutral ng. EIA storage report thursday morning.