Weather-Wednesday
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Started by metmike - June 20, 2018, 9:52 a.m.

Here is the latest radar image.

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


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By metmike - June 20, 2018, 9:53 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours......on top of the heat ridge. Heaviest in NE/KS.

By metmike - June 20, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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YYou can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit %normal. 




By metmike - June 20, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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Most importantly........forecast rains.

Rains the next 7 days .........dumping on key growing areas for corn/beans over the top of the heat ridge in the south.  Some places will have excessive rains but rain makes grain now.

Day 1:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

Day 2:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112

Day 3:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

Days 4-5:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Days 6-7:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

By metmike - June 20, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Pretty decent threat area for excessive rains but at this time of year, rain makes grain.

Excessive rain threat too


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 15Z 06/11/18 - 12Z 06/12/18

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/12/18 - 12Z 06/13/18

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 06/13/18 - 12Z 06/14/18

                                    


By metmike - June 20, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk for the next few days, not very high:

                                                  


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook                 
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0856Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 25/1200Z
          Note: A severe weather area          depicted in the Day 4-8 period          indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms          (e.g. a 15%, 30% chance that a severe thunderstorm will occur          within 25 miles of any point).
By metmike - June 20, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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This is what the week 2 dome looked like on the last operational 06z GFS.

      

gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - June 20, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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CFS weeks 3 and 4 really heats things up..............and dries it out.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


Turns drier in some places

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2018, 10:30 a.m.
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Late Week 2 heat anomolies:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

By metmike - June 20, 2018, 3:37 p.m.
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NWS extended guidance, still very warm/hot and wet:

Temperature Probability 6-10 day

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  

ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability 8-14 day

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php