INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 31, 2020, 4:51 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, August 3, 2020  



9:45 AM ET. July US Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.8)



10:00 AM ET. July ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI



                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 52.6)



                       Prices Idx (previous 51.3)



                       Employment Idx (previous 42.1)



                       Inventories (previous 50.5)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 56.4)



                       Production Idx (previous 57.3)



10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place



                       New Construction (previous -2.1%)



                       Residential Construction



11:00 AM ET. July Global Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (previous 47.8)



4:00 PM ET. July Domestic Auto Industry Sales



Tuesday, August 4, 2020  



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.1%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -8.5%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.2%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -8.7%)



9:45 AM ET. July ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (previous 39.5)



10:00 AM ET. Aug. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index



                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 44.0)



                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 37.3)



10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (previous +8.0%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +7.6%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +2.6%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -1.3%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M%



10:00 AM ET. SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee Meeting



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.8M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.2M)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher on Friday despite a mixed batch of earnings results, disappointing economic data and a lack of progress on Capitol Hill toward another coronavirus aid package. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 26,589.49 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 15th high  crossing at 27,071.33. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 27,580.21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,082.49. Second support is the July 9th low crossing at 25,523.51.  



The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If September renews last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,167.73 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 11,058.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,301.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,167.73.    



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3207.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3284.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3207.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3127.41.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 1/32's at 182-11.

  

September T-bonds closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's lows, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing  at 180-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is  today's high crossing at 182-26. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-10.



September T-notes closed up 40-pts. At 140.045.



September T-notes closed higher on Friday as it extends Thursday's upside breakout of the March-July trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's high, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.311 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 140.060. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.151. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138.311.           



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed sharply lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. Closes below the July 10th low crossing at $38.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $42.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.09. Second support is the July 10th low crossing at $38.77. 



September heating oil closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.97 would signal that intermediate trading has turned lower. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $145.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.97. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $110.27. 



September unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.11 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, June's high crossing at 130.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 130.90. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 142.00. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 113.42. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 110.99.  



September Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the July 7th high crossing at 1.989 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.800 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 7th high crossing at 1.989. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May/June decline crossing at 2.042 is the next upside target. First support is July's low crossing at 1.646. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.583. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation  chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.16. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.30. First support is today's low crossing at  92.51. Second support is the May 14th 2018 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12. 



The September Euro closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 119.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.82. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.22. 

 

The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Friday as it extended the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins  trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2722 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3174. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2870. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2722.  



The September Swiss Franc posted a downside reversal on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to  higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0733 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.1010. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0861. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0751.



The September Canadian Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, June's high crossing at 75.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 74.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.75.  



The September Japanese Yen posted a huge key reversal down on Friday ending a sixth-day rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0939 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0944. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0939.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off March's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off the March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1857.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1981.10. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1908.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1857.70.



September silver posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday ending a three-day correction off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.272 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 26.275. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.284. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 21.272.   



September copper closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 284.50 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If September renews the rally off March's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 299.30. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 301.65. First support is the reaction low crossing at 284.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 269.87. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $3.26. 



December corn closed fractionally lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, June's low crossing at $3.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.39 1/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.63. First support is today's low crossing at $3.25 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $3.22.    



December wheat closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $5.38 3/4.  



December wheat closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.53. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.       



December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.02 1/4-cents at $4.52 3/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 9th high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $4.43 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.37 1/4.     



December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $5.27 3/4.



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is July's low crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $5.15 1/2.         



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.04 1/4-cents at $8.92 1/2.



November soybeans closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off the July 13th low crossing at $8.71 1/2, July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2 is the next upside target. If November extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.79 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $9.12 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-April-decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.79 1/4. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.



December soybean meal closed down $1.00 at $297.00. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July 15th low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $296.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $303.50. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $306.50. First support is the July 15th low at $290.70. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.     



December soybean oil closed up 59-pts. At 30.75. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 31.06. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 31.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.11.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $0.58 at $52.00. 



August hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at $47.52 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $58.03 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $55.28. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is the July 20th low crossing at $50.20. Second support is June's low crossing at $47.52.     



August cattle closed up $1.43 at $103.15. 



August cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher  opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $98.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.24. Second support is the 50-day moving average  crossing at $98.91.     



August Feeder cattle closed up $1.33-cents at $144.35. 


August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $144.90. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $139.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $135.80.       



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at 12.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.39 would confirm that a short-term top. 



September cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the June 9th high crossing at 24.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.16 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.                



October sugar closed sharply higher on Friday marking an upside breakout of the June-July trading range. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 12.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.              



December cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, July's high crossing at 64.90 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off July's high, the June-15th low crossing at 57.75 is the next downside target.           

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 3, 2020, 1:43 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Warmer for natural gas.

Warmer and less rain for grains.


Weather Monday:  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57136/




Incredible, record July exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56850/


Natural Gas:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56674/