KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, August 7, 2020
8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +1482K; previous +4800K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 10.6%; previous 11.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.37)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous -0.35)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected -0.7%; previous -1.18%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.0%; previous +5.04%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.2)
Government Payrolls (previous +33K)
Private Payroll (previous +4767K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.5%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. June Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -2.0%; previous -1.2%)
3:00 PM ET. June Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +10.0B; previous -18.2B)
Monday, August 10, 2020
10:00 AM ET. July Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 49.05)
ETI, Y/Y%
10:00 AM ET. June Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors awaited key American jobs data due later in the day. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,343.85 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 11,283.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,809.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,343.85.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains ahead of today's jobs report. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3247.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3344.30. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3247.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3161.10.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to higher opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 183-06. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181-03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-24.
September T-notes were higher in steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.229 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 140.130. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.229. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.035.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $43.52. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.81. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.32.
September heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $131.31 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $130.54. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $131.31. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $121.70. Second support is the June 26th low crossing at $115.64.
September unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the June-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off April's low, June's high crossing at $130.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.78 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $130.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $142.00. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $110.99. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $109.43.
September Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's key reversal down. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.381 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.890 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.271. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.381. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.007. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.890.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $93.24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.41. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $92.51. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the May 14th 2018 low crossing at 92.12.
The September Euro was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the March 18th high crossing at $119.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $119.26. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $118.11. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.51.
The September British Pound was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2851 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3050. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2851.
The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0832 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1062. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0832. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0829.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 75.59. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.03.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0942 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0942. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0935.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:August gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1913.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $2063.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1990.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1913.00.
September silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.314 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $25.710. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.314.
September copper was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 2.8310 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.8310. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.7555.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. Thelow-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $3.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.38 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $3.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.00 1/4.
December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $4.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.25 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $5.07 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City wheat was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.50 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.42 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.50 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $4.25 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.12.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.24. First support is the overnight low crossing at $5.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at $8.71 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.88 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is July's low crossing at $8.71 1/2. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at $283.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the July 27th high crossing at $303.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. First support is the overnight low crossing at $288.30. Second support is June's low crossing at $287.50.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.34 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 31.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.34. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.42.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.48 at $49.93.
August hogs closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $47.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $52.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $55.28. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $49.20. Second support is June's low crossing at $47.52.
August cattle closed up $0.03 at $102.58.
August cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $101.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.20.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.10-cents at $143.70.
August Feeder cattle posted a key reversal down on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $145.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $141.67. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $136.85.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.69 would confirm that a short-term top. If September extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at 12.91 is the next upside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 25.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.85 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
October sugar closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.24 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.