KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, August 11, 2020
6:00 AM ET. July NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (expected 97.3; previous 100.6)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +3.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -7.9%)
8:30 AM ET. July PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous -0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.3%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -7.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -7.1%)
10:00 AM ET. July Online Help Wanted Index
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.8M)
Wednesday, August 12, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 841.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 300.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3688.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -6.8%)
8:30 AM ET. July Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. July CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +5.1%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -2.3%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +0.8%; previous +0.6%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.2%; previous +1.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 518.596M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.373M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 247.806M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.419M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 179.977M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.591M)
Refinery Usage (previous 79.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.912M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.182M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
Thursday, August 13, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 1100K; previous 1186K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -249K)
Continuing Claims (previous 16107000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -844K)
8:30 AM ET. July Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.5%; previous +1.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.3%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +23%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2701.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1750.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 610.5K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3274B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +33B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, August 14, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +4.9%; previous -2.5%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +5.3%; previous +4.8%)
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +2.2%; previous +7.5%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +1.3%; previous +7.3%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +6.7%)
9:15 AM ET. July Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +2.8%; previous +5.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 70.2%; previous 68.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +3.5)
10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected -1.3%; previous -2.3%)
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 70.0; previous 73.2)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 66.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 84.2)
Monday, August 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. August Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 17.2)
Employment Idx (previous 0.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 13.9)
Prices Received (previous -4.5)
10:00 AM ET. August NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 72)
4:00 PM ET. June Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,853.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 11,283.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10,853.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,403.37.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it posted its longest stretch of gains in about 16 months Monday. Investors are looking for signs that a long-awaited rotation into more economically sensitive cyclical stocks might be just around the corner as they rotate out of high-flying tech stocks. Investors also focused on the significance of President Donald Trump’s weekend signing of executive orders extending some elements of coronavirus relief. The measures face likely legal challenges and questions about their effectiveness, but this could trigger further talks among lawmakers. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 3387.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3267.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3379.00. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3267.79. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3174.23.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for steady to lower opening is possible when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 181-04 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 183-06. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 183-23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181-04. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 178-27.
September T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.239 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 140.130. Second resistance is March's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.239. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.044.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.23. Second support is the June 25th low crossing at $37.56.
October heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $124.04. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $117.88.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight while extending the June-August trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off April's low, June's high crossing at $121.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $113.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $121.22. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $104.41.
October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the May-June-decline crossing at 2.247. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.473 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.063 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.365. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-June decline crossing at 2.473. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.224. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.063.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight following a two-day rebound off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If September extends this year's decline, the May 14th 2018-low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 92.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $92.48. Second support is weekly support on the weekly continuation chart marked by the May 14th 2018 low crossing at 92.12.
The September Euro was higher in overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $119.26. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $114.53.
The September British Pound was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2903 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March decline crossing at 1.3193. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2903. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2685.
The September Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading following a three-day decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0864 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1062. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0864. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.0829.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.59. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.11.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0942 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0943. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0936.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS:August gold was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The setback from last-Thursday's high was triggered by a rebound in the U.S. Dollar and rising Treasury yields. Overnight weakness has seen August gold fall below initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at $1998.80. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1930.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $2063.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1998.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1930.80.
September silver was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.220 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $26.493. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.220.
September copper was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last-Friday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.7694 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9002 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 13th high crossing at 2.9930. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.7820. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.7694.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.29 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $3.00 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.29 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $3.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at $3.00 1/4.
December wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at $4.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.28 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.19 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.28 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.98 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.96.
December Kansas City wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at $4.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.47 1/4 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.38 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.47 1/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $4.20 3/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at $4.12.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher due to short covering overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $5.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.16 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.21 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $5.06 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.88 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.25 1/4. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $8.56 3/4 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $8.45 3/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at $283.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $295.80 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the July 27th high crossing at $303.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at $286.20. Second support is weekly support crossing at $283.00.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 31.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.51.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $1.25 at $51.00.
August hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at $52.23 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at $47.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at $55.28. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $58.03. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $49.20. Second support is June's low crossing at $47.52.
August cattle closed up $0.90 at $103.70.
August cattle closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $103.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $108.26. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $99.31.
August Feeder cattle closed up $1.05-cents at $143.78.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday consolidating some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $145.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $150.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $142.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $137.18.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.94 would confirm that a short-term top. If September renews the rally off June's low, March's high crossing at 12.91 is the next upside target.
September cocoa posted a key reversal down on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 25.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.19 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
October sugar closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-Friday's decline but leaves a potential double top with July's high on the daily chart. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.44 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
All eyes will be on the USDA report out tomorrow morning at 11am.
However, the pattern is going to turn very dry in week 2 and though its late in the season, this could still be bullish for the late filling of beans and have an affect on any corn that has a way to go until maturity.
Models that were warmer overnight, turned cooler this morning for natural gas.