KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 21, 2018
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 218K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1697000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -49K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1176.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 810.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 302.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 28.5; previous 34.4)
Prices Paid (previous 52.6)
Employment (previous 30.2)
New Orders (previous 40.6)
Prices Received (previous 36.4)
Delivery Times (previous 18.5)
Inventories (previous 8.1)
Shipments 25.8)
9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.3%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.3%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1913B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +96B)
11:00 AM ET. ABA Economic Advisory Committee economic forecast
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest supervisory stress test results
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, June 22, 2018
9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 56.5; previous 55.7)
9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 56.5; previous 56.6)
Monday, June 25, 2018
8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.34)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.46)
10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 662K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.4)
10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 26.8)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 35.2)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Wednesday as they extend the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7157.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7336.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7157.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6941.18.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2757.74. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2715.41.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,652.82 would open the door for a possible test of the late-May low crossing at 24,247.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,102.25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 24,825.77. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,102.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,652.82. Second support is the late-May's low crossing at 24,247.84.
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September T-bonds closed down 24/32's at 143-11.
September T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 146-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-06. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.
September T-notes closed down 95-points at 119-180.
September T-notes closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 120.005 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.005. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.
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July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.73 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.09. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 68.76.First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.59. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.73.
July heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.81. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.87. First support is Monday's low crossing at 206.58. Second support isthe 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.38.
July unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 194.27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 211.52. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 219.87. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 200.25. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 194.27.
July Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.867 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.111, is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.052. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.867. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.804.
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The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 95.07 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 94.99. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 95.07. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.28.
The September Euro closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.22. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, last November's low crossing at 1.3194 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.3533 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3671. First support is today's low crossing at 1.3199. Second support is last November's low crossing at 1.3194.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, a test of May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.0302 would renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431 is the next upside target. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0088. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this year's decline to a new low close for the year. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.99 is needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.87. First support is today's low crossing at 75.17. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9224 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.8992 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9224. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006.
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August gold closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 1313.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1313.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1332.40. First support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1268.40. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.
July silver closed lower for the fourth-day in a row on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.190 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.727 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.727. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 17.350. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070.
July copper closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 301.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 318.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 315.04. First support is today's low crossing at 302.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 301.00.
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July Corn closed up a 1/4-cents at 3.54.
July corn closed fractionally higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.66 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.66 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.80. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4 Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2.
July wheat closed up 11 1/2-cents at 4.89 1/4.
July wheat closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline, The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below this year's uptrend line crossing near 4.80 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 4.59. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/2 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/2. First support is this year's uptrend line crossing near 4.80. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 5 3/4-cents at 4.88 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.22 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.71 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up 3 1/4-cents at 5.52 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.96 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.41 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.
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July soybeans closed up 3/4-cents at 8.89 3/4.
July soybeans closed fractionally higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.30 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.30 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.75 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.
July soybean meal closed down $0.50 at 334.00.
July soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 360.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 345.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 360.20. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00.
July soybean oil closed up 47-point. At 29.32.
July soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.56. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 crossing at 26.99.
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July hogs closed down $1.85 at $80.03.
July hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.83. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.55.
October cattle closed up $0.78 at 109.28.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 109.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.20 at $149.43.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 142.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 150.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 142.18. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.23 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.
July sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target.
July cotton closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.04 would confirm that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!