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By wglassfo - Aug. 13, 2020, 6:37 p.m.
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Hi mcfarm

Just between you and me, china may have a serious food shortage

I did some research on china food production for 2020

1st of all china plants rice 3 times a yr. The flooding ruined crop # 1 and 2 plus the rice paddies were flooded for crop # 3. Now we know the flooding was severe as the Three Gorges Dam is in danger of failing. That takes a lot of water to do that much damage to the dam, thus the rice crop damage. Then the SW was over run with locust. In fact XI ordered a mass effort to get the locust under control, but to minimum effect. Then the NW is in drought which mostly burned up the corn and wheat crop. Many farms have nothing to harvest. Then if that wasn't enough, army worms attacked the remaining corn crop. I saw pictures of leaves shredded by armyworm and the worms all over the leaves. At one storage facility of corn, officials would not allow photos because the corn was moldy from flooding. China doesn't have the best storage facilities out in the country and I did see pictures of moldy corn, about 2 feet deep in a huge flat storage facility. Plus they haven't recovered their swine herd as of yet, which makes pork in short supply.

So, all in all XI got a bit perturbed and ordered local officials to meet their grain quota which as you know, mother nature has a big hand in that, so what XI expected I do not know. However, you can bet if Xi is involved then the food shortage must be real.  Food prices in china have gone up a lot, so far this yr, so the shortage must be real. I have gathered this info, plus pictures for maybe 2 months as of now

China said they have three uses for grain

Human consumption

Animal feed

Industrial use

China says they can feed the people but the recent meat imports makes me wonder how they will allocate scarce grain and meat products plus feed the livestock. I think they are buying from both NA and SA before the world catches on to how much china really needs. Then the rest off the world can buy what ever is available when china has bought at a lower price

Just a rumor as of yet but russia may put limits on wheat exports as they did not have a bumper crop

So take this for what it is worth but china certainly did not grow a normal crop of grain in 2020

Brazil has a high rate of infection which makes you wonder how efficiently the ports will load the boats to china, the truckers or the whole grain production chain in Brazil

Just some thing to think about plus the dollar value

Sorry for the rambling post but I just posted as I thought of things I had researched

By mcfarm - Aug. 13, 2020, 8:12 p.m.
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all great points Wayne.......thanks for sharing