INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 20, 2020, 4:40 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, August 21, 2020 



9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (expected 51.2; previous 51.3)



9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (expected 50.6; previous 49.6)



10:00 AM ET. July Existing Home Sales



                       Existing Sales (expected 5.2M; previous 4.72M)



                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +11.7%; previous +20.7%)



                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.0)



                       Median Price (USD) (previous 295300)



                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)



Monday, August 24, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. July CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index



                       NAI (previous 4.11)



                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -3.49)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher due to a late-session on Thursday despite early weakness due to dissatisfaction with the lack of progress in Congress on further fiscal stimulus. Additional pressure came from an uncertain outlook for the economy by the Fed in minutes of its July meeting published Wednesday while also sounding unenthusiastic about introducing a policy of yield-curve control. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Never the less stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,539.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow renews this month's rally, February's high crossing at 29,568.57 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.26. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27,228.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,539.93.  



The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends this week's record setting gains. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,036.03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Today's high crossing at 11,454.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,036.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,605.31.  

 

The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 3393.82 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3307.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3399.54. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3307.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3200.90.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed closed up 23/32's at 179-05.

  

September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates below the January-June uptrend line. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-14 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 179-01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at  180-14. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is July's low crossing at 179-01. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.



September T-notes closed up 45-pts. At 139.165.



September T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 138.245 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. Third resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 138.285. Second support is July's low crossing at 138.245.           



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving  average crossing at $40.80. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $41.43. 



October heating oil closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extends the June-August trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the  January-April-decline crossing at $147.51. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.13. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $119.03. 



October unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends Monday's upside breakout of the June-August trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 122.94. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 130.29. First support is the July 30th low crossing at 106.14. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 104.41.  



October Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.266 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.598. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.418. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.266.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.29. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21. 



The September Euro closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.28. 

 

The September British Pound closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September  extends the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3062 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3269. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3062. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2748. 

 

The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.15. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.29.  



The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday leaving yesterday's downside reversal unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off August's high, the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0952. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0939. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



October gold closed lower on Thursday following Wednesday's comments by the Federal Reserve that  suggest a less-accommodating attitude towards the markets and this week's short covering bounce by dollar.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1870.20 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1882.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1870.20.



September silver closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 23.580 would confirm  that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 29.915. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 22.973.   



September copper closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 305.84 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 276.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 302.95. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 305.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.01. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 276.90.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down a $0.00 1/2-cent at $3.39 1/4. 



December corn closed fractionally lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Old crop corn sales were 2.4 million bushels, down 63% below the previous four-week average. New crop sales came in at 28.5 million bushels, bringing total sales to 30.9 million bushels last-week. Total sales for this marketing year are 1.623 billion bushels, well below last year’s pace of 1.887 billion bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.59 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.46. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at $3.20.    



December wheat closed up $0.06 1/2-cents at $5.28 1/2.  



December wheat Closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading.  Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 31st high crossing at $5.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.11 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 31st high crossing at $5.42. Second resistance is the  July 24th high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is August's low crossing at $4.97. Second support is June's  low crossing at $4.79 1/2.      



December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.51 3/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.50 1/2 opening the door for additional upside gains near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.37 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.37 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $4.20 3/4.      



December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.03 3/4-cents at $5.27 1/2.



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 would open the door for a possible test of July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 3/4 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 3/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.          



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down a $0.08 3/4-cents at $9.05 1/4.



November soybeans closed lower on Thursday due to a round of technical selling as several indicators still point to a record or near-record U.S. crop this fall. Old crop soybean sales hit a marketing year low of 467,000. However, new crop sales came in at 94.5 million bushels, bringing the total bushels to just under 95 million bushels. The total for the 2019/20 marketing year is still behind last year’s pace, with 1.542 billion bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.87 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the crossing at $9.24 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $9.19 1/2 cents. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the crossing at $9.24 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.91 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.86 3/4.



December soybean meal closed down $1.90 at $300.60. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $308.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $305.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.90. Second support is August's low average at $286.20.       



December soybean oil closed down 49-pts. at 31.48. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 30.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 32.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 30.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.87.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $2.93 at $55.48. 



October hogs gapped up and closed higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off the July 31st low, the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $56.13. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.54. Second support is the July 31st low crossing at $47.87.     



October cattle closed down $1.43 at $109.40. 



October cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average  crossing at $107.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $119.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $119.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.51.     



October Feeder cattle closed down $0.78-cents at $146.03. 


October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.92 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $150.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $144.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $140.92.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, August's high crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 10.97 would confirm that a short-term top.   



September cocoa closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below below Tuesday's low crossing at 23.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 25.87 is the next upside target.                 



October sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.              



December cotton closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renewed the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 20, 2020, 9:33 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Continued with the previous theme in week 2...............cooler and wetter. This can still help late pod filling on beans and is bearish ng.

But the GFS is much warmer than the European model, so there is huge disagreement.


Exports sales were poor for old crop but good again for new crop. 

EIA for ng was bearish.


Weather Wednesday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57882/


Pro Farmer:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57799/


Exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57755/


Crop conditions:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57783/


Derecho:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57424/


             

Coffee:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56557/


Crude:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57861/