KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, August 24, 2020
8:30 AM ET. July CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 4.11)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -3.49)
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The Dow closed higher on Friday as pockets of the economy are showing quicker rates of recovery. Existing home sales rose by a record 24.7% in July to surpass their pre-virus level, as low rates and pent-up demand led to a surge of home purchases. IHS Markit’s flash PMIs showed the service economy moving into expansionary territory in August, and that manufacturing activity accelerated more than expected. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If the Dow renews this month's rally, February's high crossing at 29,568.57 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27,299.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28,090.26. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27,299.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,595.17.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it posted the 35th record close of 2020. However, concerns about the current rally, which has been led by only a handful of stocks leaves the market vulnerable to a sharp decline. Nevertheless, the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,091.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Today's high crossing at 11,558.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,091.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,644.53.
The September S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above February's high crossing at 3387.60 would open the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3315.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 3387.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3315.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3205.01.
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September T-bonds closed closed up 10/32's at 179-21.
September T-bonds closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 179-01 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-11. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is July's low crossing at 179-01. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes closed up 10-pts. At 139.190.
September T-notes closed slightly higher on Friday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 138.245 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.210. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. Third resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 138.285. Second support is July's low crossing at 138.245.
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October crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $40.91. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $41.43.
October heating oil closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.29 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, the July 30th low crossing at $119.03 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $147.51. First support is the July 30th low crossing at $119.03. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $117.88.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 124.00. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 130.29. First support is the July 30th low crossing at 106.14. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 104.41.
October Henry natural gas posted a key reversal up on Friday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.295 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.598. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.436. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.295.
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The September Dollar closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.19 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at 93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at 93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.22. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The September Euro closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.37.
The September British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3077 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3269. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3077. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2758.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.
The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly lower on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.34.
The September Japanese Yen closed unchanged on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off August's high, the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 0.0952. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0939. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930.
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October gold closed lower on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1874.00 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1882.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1874.00.
September silver closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 29.915. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 22.973.
September copper closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 305.84 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 276.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 302.95. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 305.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 290.14. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 276.90.
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December Corn closed up $0.01 3/4-cents at $3.41.
December corn closed higher on Friday. Pro Farmer posted its national average yield estimate for corn at a record 177.5 bu/acre, but 4.3 bpa below USDA’s August's estimate of 181.8 bpa. This cut in yield brings the ending stocks down to 2.298 billion bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.59 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.46. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.30 3/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $3.20.
December wheat closed up $0.06-cents at $5.34 1/2.
December wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 31st high crossing at $5.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 31st high crossing at $5.42. Second resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.14 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at $4.97. Third support is June's low crossing at $4.79 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.02 1/2-cents at $4.55 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's breakout above the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.50 1/4 thereby opening the door for additional gains near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.40. Second support is August's low crossing at $4.20 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $5.29.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends yesterday's breakout above the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.16 3/4 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $5.331/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.16 3/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
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November soybeans closed down a $0.01 1/2-cents at $9.03 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Friday due to technical selling. Pro-Farmer released its final yield estimate for the 2020 soybean crop at 52.5 bushels per acre. This brings the carryout for the 20/21 soybean crop to 547 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the crossing at $9.24 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $9.19 1/2 cents. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the crossing at $9.24 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.97 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.91 3/4.
December soybean meal closed down $3.50 at $297.10.
December soybean meal closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $308.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $305.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.80. Second support is August's low average at $286.20.
December soybean oil closed up 16-pts. at 31.68.
December soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 30.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 32.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 30.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.94.
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October hogs closed down $0.98 at $54.20.
October hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $56.13. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01. First support is Thursday's gap crossing at $52.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.56.
October cattle closed down $0.73 at $109.05.
October cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $119.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $119.63. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.72.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.95-cents at $145.43.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.16 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $150.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $144.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.16.
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September coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target. Closes below August's low crossing at 10.97 would confirm that a short-term top.
September cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below below Tuesday's low crossing at 23.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 25.87 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.
December cotton posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renewed the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.