INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 25, 2020, 7:55 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, August 25, 2020 



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.4%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous -5.3%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +2.8%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous -3.1%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous -2.8%)



9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index



9:00 AM ET. June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices



                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)



                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.1%)



                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)



                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.7%)



                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.7%)



                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)



10:00 AM ET. Aug Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 10)



                       Shipments Idx (previous 23)



10:00 AM ET. August Consumer Confidence Index



                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 92.1; previous 92.6)



                       Expectation Idx (previous 91.5)



                       Present Situation Idx (previous 94.2)



10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales



                       New Home Sales (expected 783K; previous 776K)



                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +13.8%)



                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.7)



4:30 PM ET.  API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.3M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.0M)



Wednesday, August 26, 2020 



7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey



                       Composite Idx (previous 824.5)



                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.8%)



                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 306.6)



                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.8%)



                       Refinance Idx (previous 4025.0)



                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.3%)



8:30 AM ET. July Advance Report on Durable Goods



                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +5.2%; previous +7.3%)



                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +9.2%)



                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +3.3%)



                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +3.3%)

                       

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +3.4%)

                       

10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report



                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 512.452M)



                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.632M)



                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 243.762M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.322M)



                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 177.807M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.152M)



                       Refinery Usage (previous 80.9%)



                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 17.159M)



                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.21M)

                       

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



Thursday, August 27, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP



                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected -32.4%; previous -32.9%)



                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected -1.8%; previous -1.8%)



                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -14.1%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.9%)



                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.5%)



                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous -29.3%)



                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.1%)



                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous -34.6%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 1045K; previous 1106K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +135K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 14844000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -636K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 784.9K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2560.6K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 523K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. July Pending Home Sales Index



                       Pending Home Sales (previous 116.1)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous +16.6%)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3375B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +43B)

                       

11:00 AM ET. August Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing



                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 7)



                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 25)



                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 3)



                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 14)



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, August 28, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. July Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -1.1%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous +5.6%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.8%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +0.9%)



8:30 AM ET. July Advance Economic Indicators Report



9:45 AM ET. August ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (previous 51.9)



10:00 August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 72.4; previous 72.5)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 65.9)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.8)



3:00 PM ET. July Agricultural Prices



                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +3.9%)



Monday, August 31, 2020  



10:30 AM ET. August Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous -3.0)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 16.1)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as U.S. and China report positive trade talks. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,195.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11,722.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,195.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,722.20.



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above February's high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3393.00 opens the door into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3334.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3448.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3334.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3220.90. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend Monday's decline. The low-range he stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 177-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180-04. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is August's low crossing at 177-16. Second support is July's low crossing at 177-06.



September T-notes were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 138.235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.203 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.203. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. Third resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is August's low crossing at 139.285. Second support is July's low crossing at 138.235.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range above the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 5th high crossing at $43.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.11. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $39.00.  



October heating oil was higher overnight as it extended the rebound off last-Friday's low while extending the July-August trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. If October resumes last-Friday's decline, the July 30th low crossing at $119.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the July 30th low  crossing at $119.03. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $117.88.  



October unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.75 would  signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $127.42. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.99. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.75.    



October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.358 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.658. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.496. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.358.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. Closes  above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $95.07. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.



The September Euro was higher in overnight trading as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.57.



The September British Pound was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes  the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3269. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2779.  



The September Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.  



The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.42.



The September Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the  day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0939 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0925.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1881.30 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1881.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.  



September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at $23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is August's low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973. 



September copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at 2.7690 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.0295. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is August's low crossing at 2.7690. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.7035. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn gapped above the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.46 and was higher overnight following Monday's bullish crop conditionals report. The report showed a 5% decline in the good/excellent rating for the nations corn crop, which now stands at 64% good/excellent. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.32 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.51 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.37 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.32 1/2.      



December wheat was higher overnight due to spillover strength from corn and soybeans. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 31st high crossing at $5.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.18 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 31st high crossing at $5.42. Second resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $5.48 3/4. First support is August's low crossing at $4.97. Second support is June's low crossing at $4.79 1/2. 



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's key reversal down. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.41 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.41. Second support is August's low crossing at $4.20 3/4.          



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at $5.33 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $5.33 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $5.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.18. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was higher overnight following Monday's bullish crop conditions report. The report showed a 3% decline in the good/excellent rating for the nations soybean crop, which now stands at 69% good/excellent.The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with overnight gains signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $9.24 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.89 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.19 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.24 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.93 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.89 1/4.  



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this month's rally, July's high crossing at $308.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $311.60. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $296.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $295.80.   

   

December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, last-November's high crossing at 33.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 32.40. Second resistance is last-November's high crossing at 33.22. Third resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.07. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.20 at $54.45. 



October hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $56.13. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01. First support is last-Thursday's gap crossing at $52.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.59.     



October cattle closed down $0.55 at $108.00. 



October cattle gapped down and closed below the 20-day moving average  crossing at $108.37 on Monday signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a  steady to slightly lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.92 is the next downside targets. If October renews the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $119.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $110.91. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. First support is today's low crossing at $107.23. Second support is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $104.92.     



October Feeder cattle closed down $2.25-cents at $143.03. 


October Feeder cattle gapped down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.35 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $146.68. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. Third resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44. First support is today's low crossing at $141.98. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.35.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed slightly lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 12.73 is the next upside target. Closes below August's low crossing at 10.97 would confirm that a short-term top.   



September cocoa closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 25.87 is the next upside target. Closes below below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 23.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.                 



October sugar closed lower on Monday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.              



December cotton closed sharply higher on Monday as it renewed the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 25, 2020, 1:08 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Today's rally in the grains has been very impressive and a slow march higher.

The market knows with certainty, that the next crop report will show a CUT in production. Now, its just a matter of how bullish that report will be.


Not much change to the previous posts, so I'll copy the last one below:

                Re: INO Evening Market Comments            

            

                                     

                By metmike - Aug. 24, 2020, 7:16 p.m.            

                                                            

Thanks tallpine!


Crop ratings dropped by even more than expected on Monday, so look for a higher open tonight.

Corn -5% gd/ex

Beans -3% gd/ex

Dryness in August in much of the belt has hurt.  We've already seen the highest production forecast of the year with extreme confidence. 


crop conditions August 24

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58110/

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Previous comments from today still look good:

                Re: INO Morning Market Commentary            

                         

                By metmike - Aug. 24, 2020, 1:16 p.m.            

Most rains this week will miss very dry IA.


Ratings this afternoon will DROP again by at least a  couple %(my guess). from August dryness.

Better chance in week 2.

Main item this week will be Laura in the GOM, then moving the the S.Ohio Valley by Friday.


Oil market today:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58101/


Previous crude thread:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57861/


Tropics:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57763/


Natural Gas:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57846/


Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58036/

                                    

Exports this week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58095/


Pro Farmer last week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57799/


Funds.......huge buying earlier this month:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58077/