China talks
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Started by cutworm - Aug. 25, 2020, 11:49 a.m.

“The two sides had a constructive dialogue on strengthening the coordination of the macroeconomic policies of the two countries and the implementation of the ‘Phase 1’ agreement,” a ministry statement said.

https://www.barchart.com/story/news/142095/china-us-discuss-economic-coordination-in-trade-meeting

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Re: China talks
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By wglassfo - Aug. 25, 2020, 12:42 p.m.
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I think I read that the Trump administration is satisfied with china purchase of Ag products

I, as a farmer and seller of Ag products am also satisfied with china current pace of ag purchases

Although I doubt china will purchase the amount Trump boasted about, china is buying large quantities of ag products

Now I don't for one minute believe the ag purchases had anything to do with the trade agreement and everything to do with the fact china is facing a food shortage and needs to purchase from both SA and NA This is an indication of how severe china food shortage actually has become 

Add to that the evidence that NA is experiencing reduced yields as the crop index shows each week and will IMO continue to show reduced production as the crop index goes down

And don't forget grains and meat products may be cheaper today than after the harvest and the production is actually in the bin with a smaller crop harvested in NA

Higher prices for food, in china, are a good indicator that china has a food shortage and prices will soon increase for NA grains and meats

A 5 bu decrease in NA soybean yield may be too much of a decrease, to pencil in the math equation, but if we do the math on 5 bu decrease that is 400 less bu compared to a projected 600 carry over

I think that is 400 billion bu less production compared to 600 billion carry over but check out my math for your self and then consider the price of soybeans if china continues to buy our beans at present rate of purchase and cheap price as an incentive to get purchases on the books

Might not be very many beans left over for domestic consumption in NA, as is usual in a normal yr when soybean production did not have so much drought conditions, reducing the Natn'l yield. Crop index is proof the yield will be less than anticipated

If you think 3 bu yield reduction is a more conservative estimate of natn'l production that still leaves the carry over rather small for domestic use age, considering the large purchases by china

By metmike - Aug. 25, 2020, 1:24 p.m.
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China did record buying of new crop(2020/21) C and S in July into August.


They locked in some incredibly favorable prices.

It's not likely that we will trade to those levels again, with the exception of a potential spike lower during harvest(which might not happen if yields are disappointing)