INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 27, 2020, 8:11 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, August 27, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits



8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 2nd estimate GDP



                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected -32.4%; previous -32.9%)



                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected -1.8%; previous -1.8%)



                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -14.1%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.9%)



                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.5%)



                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous -29.3%)



                       Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous -1.1%)



                       Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous -34.6%)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 1045K; previous 1106K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +135K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 14844000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -636K)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 784.9K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2560.6K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 523K)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. July Pending Home Sales Index



                       Pending Home Sales (previous 116.1)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous +16.6%)



                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3375B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +43B)

                       

11:00 AM ET. August Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing



                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 7)



                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 25)



                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 3)



                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 14)



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings



Friday, August 28, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. July Personal Income & Outlays



                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -1.1%)



                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous +5.6%)



                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)



                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.8%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)



                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +0.9%)



8:30 AM ET. July Advance Economic Indicators Report



9:45 AM ET. August ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI



                       PMI-Adj (previous 51.9)



10:00 August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final



                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 72.4; previous 72.5)



                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 65.9)



                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)



                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)



                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.8)



3:00 PM ET. July Agricultural Prices



                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +3.9%)



Monday, August 31, 2020  



10:30 AM ET. August Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous -3.0)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 16.1)


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,317.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 12,001.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,317.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,803.88.



The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3346.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3482.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3346.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3235.72. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of this week's decline. The mid-range he stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 177-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-25 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 179-25. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 177-12. Second support is July's low crossing at 177-06.



September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.188 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this month's decline, July's low crossing at 138.235 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.188. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. Third resistance is the March high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 140.240. First support is August's low crossing at 139.285. Second support is July's low crossing at 138.235.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range above the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $43.78. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.31. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $39.00.  



October heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. If October resumes last-Friday's decline, the July 30th low crossing at $119.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the July 30th low crossing at $119.03. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $117.88.  



October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.29 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $129.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.29.    



October Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.410 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2.658. Second resistance is the April-2019 high crossing at 2.697. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.545. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.410.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends August's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.90. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.



The September Euro was lower in overnight trading as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.79.



The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes  the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3269. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2804.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.  



The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 76.04. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.51.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the  day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0939 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0925.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1889.30 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1889.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.  



September silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at $23.580 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is August's low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973. 



September copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.8525 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.0295. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is August's low crossing at 2.7690. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.7035. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.35 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.51 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.45 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.35 1/2.     



December wheat was higher overnight due to spillover strength from corn and soybeans as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $5.54 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.19 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $5.54 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.28 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.19 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.42 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.42 1/2.          



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the June 18th high crossing at $5.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.19 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.25 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.19 3/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was higher overnight  as it extends this month's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $9.44 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.91 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.33. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.44 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.13 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.97 3/4.  



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this month's rally, July's high crossing at $308.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $311.60. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $296.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.10.   

   

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, last-November's high crossing at 33.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 32.89. Second resistance is last-November's high crossing at 33.22. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.23. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed down $0.38 at $55.58. 



October hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $52.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $56.70. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01. First support is last-Thursday's gap crossing at $52.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.73.     



October cattle closed down $1.78 at $107.00. 



October cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.27 is the next downside targets. If October renews the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $119.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $110.91. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. First support is today's low crossing at $106.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.26.     



October Feeder cattle closed down $1.00-cents at $142.08. 


October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.68 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $146.25. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. Third resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44. First support is today's low crossing at $141.15. Second support is the July 27th low crossing at $140.50.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, March's high crossing at 12.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.75 would confirm that a short-term top.   



December cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 24.58 is the next upside target. Closes below below last-Friday's low crossing at 23.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.                 



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.79 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.25. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.               



December cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 27, 2020, 1:56 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Grains and ng having huge days. NGU expires shortly. Exports sales pretty good again.


Laura's leftovers are racing towards AR right now.


Weather Wednesday:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58165/


Oil market today:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58101/


Previous crude thread:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57861/


Tropics:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57763/


Natural Gas:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57846/


                                    

Exports this week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58095/


Pro Farmer last week:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57799/


Funds.......huge buying earlier this month:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58077/