KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, August 28, 2020
8:30 AM ET. July Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -1.1%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous +5.6%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +0.8%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +1.3%; previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. July Advance Economic Indicators Report
9:45 AM ET. August ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 51.9)
10:00 August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 72.4; previous 72.5)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 65.9)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.6%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.8)
3:00 PM ET. July Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +3.9%)
Monday, August 31, 2020
10:30 AM ET. August Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -3.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 16.1)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,367.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 12,046.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,367.81. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10,842.45.
The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3369.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3509.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3369.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3243.28.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of this week's decline. The high-range he stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 174-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-16. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is the overnight low crossing at 175-05. Second support is the June low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the June 16th low crossing at 138.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.164 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 21st high crossing at 139.235. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. First support is the overnight low crossing at 139.230. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range above the 50% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $43.78. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.38. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $39.00.
October heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94 is the next upside target. If October resumes last-Friday's decline, the July 30th low crossing at $119.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is the July 30th low crossing at $119.03. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $117.88.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.36 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $129.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.36.
October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.453 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.743. Second resistance is the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.453. Second support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends August's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.79. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $92.11. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The September Euro was higher in overnight trading as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $119.73. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $115.93.
The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3307. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 1.3453. First support is the August 4th low crossing at 1.2984. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2822.
The September Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1108. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 1.0829.
The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.59. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.57.
The September Japanese Yen was sharply higher overnight and working on a potential key reversal up while extending this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. Closes below August's low crossing at 0.0934 would renew the decline off July's high. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0925.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at $1865.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is August's low crossing at $1865.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.
September silver was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $26.130 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is August's high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is August's low crossing at $23.580. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973.
September copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.8608 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.0295. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. First support is August's low crossing at 2.7690. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.7035.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $3.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.59 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $3.63. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.47 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.37.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.20 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $5.54 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.20 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 24th high crossing at $4.65 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.43 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $4.74 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.55 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.43 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the June 18th high crossing at $5.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $5.43 1/2. Second resistance is the June 18th high crossing at $5.49. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.28 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.20 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's rally, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $9.63 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $9.48 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at $9.63. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.18 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.01.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this month's rally, July's high crossing at $308.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $296.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at $308.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $311.60. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $296.70. Second support is August's low crossing at $286.20.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.64 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.64.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.38 at $55.58.
October hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $52.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $56.70. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $57.01. First support is last-Thursday's gap crossing at $52.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $50.73.
October cattle closed down $1.78 at $107.00.
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off last-week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.27 is the next downside targets. If October renews the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at $119.63 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $110.91. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. First support is today's low crossing at $106.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.26.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.00-cents at $142.08.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $141.68 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $146.25. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. Third resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $151.44. First support is today's low crossing at $141.15. Second support is the July 27th low crossing at $140.50.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, March's high crossing at 12.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.75 would confirm that a short-term top.
December cocoa closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 24.58 is the next upside target. Closes below below last-Friday's low crossing at 23.55 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.79 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.25. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Turning cooler and cooler in the extended forecast........bearish for natural gas.
Probably not cold enough for an early freeze and the crop is well ahead on maturity this year.........actually accelerating/shutting down early from the dry finish and hot weather this week.
Crop ratings will drop again next week because of the hot/dry weather over key dry sections of the cornbelt in August.