INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 21, 2018, 4:49 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, June 22, 2018 



9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (expected 56.5; previous 55.7)



9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Manufacturing PMI



                       PMI, Mfg (expected 56.5; previous 56.6)



Monday, June 25, 2018



8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index



                       NAI (previous 0.34)



                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.46)



10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales



                       New Home Sales (previous 662K)



                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -1.5%)



                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.4)



10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey



                       Business Activity (previous 26.8)



                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 35.2)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as they consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off April's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7170.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 7358.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7170.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6953.72. 



The September S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2758.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2796.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 2795.50. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2796.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2758.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2717.60. 



The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,658.86 has opened the door for a possible test of the late-May low crossing at 24,247.84. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,027.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 24,825.77. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 25,027.54. First support is today's low crossing at 24,451.99. Second support is the late-May's low crossing at 24,247.84.      



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed up 12/32's at 143-28.



September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday while extending this month's trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 146-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 145-28. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 146-06. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.     



September T-notes closed up 80-points at 119-275.



September T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 120.005 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 117.300 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.005. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.     



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 61.43 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 68.52.First support is Monday's low crossing at 63.40. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.43. 



August heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.04 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.04. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.60. First support is Monday's low crossing at 206.89. Second support isthe 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.35. 



August unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 205.17. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.28. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 198.78. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 192.52.



August Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August resumes the rally off May's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.111, is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.880 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.043. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.111. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.880. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.8214.  



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar posted a key reversal down on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 95.22. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.79. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 92.82.     



The September Euro posted a key reversal up on Thursday as it consolidated some of June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 119.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.05. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    



The September British Pound posted a key reversal up on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 1.3048 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.3533 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3533. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3651. First support is today's low crossing at 1.3152. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.3048. 



The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above June's high crossing at 1.0302 would renew the rally off May's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes this month's decline, a test of May's low crossing at 1.0057 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 1.0431 is the next upside target. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0086. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.0057. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.86 is needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.86. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.79. First support is today's low crossing at 75.09. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.  



The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9218 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 0.8992 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9218. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 0.9320. First support is May's low crossing at 0.9051. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9006.   



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off April's high, last-December's low crossing at 1251.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1296.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1296.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1312.80. First support is today's low crossing at 1262.40. Second support is last-December's low crossing at 1251.90.



July silver closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 16.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.685 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.685. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 17.350. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070.        



July copper closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 301.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 316.22 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.86. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.82. First support is today's low crossing at 301.80. Second support is May's low crossing at 301.00.   



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed up 3 1/4-cents at 3.57 1/2. 



July corn closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.64 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July extends the decline off May's high, monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.38 3/4 Second support is monthly support crossing at 3.35 1/2.  



July wheat closed up 8-cents at 4.96 1/4. 



July wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline, The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. Closes below this year's uptrend line crossing near 4.80 would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 4.59. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.14 3/4. First support is this year's uptrend line crossing near 4.80. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.59.       



July Kansas City Wheat closed up 4 1/2-cents at 4.93 1/4. 



July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.17 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.71 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at 4.50 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged at 5.52 3/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.72 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.72 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.92 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.41 3/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.15 1/2.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed down 10-cents at 8.79 3/4. 



July soybeans closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.20 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.67 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 8.41 1/2. Second support is the March-2009 low crossing at 8.38 1/4.



July soybean meal closed down $1.70 at 331.50. 



July soybean meal closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 357.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 317.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 343.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 357.70. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 320.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 317.00. 



July soybean oil closed down 14-point. At 29.23. 



July soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the November-2015 low crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.77. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.44. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 27.79. Second support is the November-2015 crossing at 26.99.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed up $0.45 at $80.48. 



July hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off April's low, the late-February high crossing at 84.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 83.83. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 84.67. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.60.  



October cattle closed down $0.28 at 109.00. 



October cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 110.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 109.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 110.05. First support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50. Second support is May's low crossing at 101.50.

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $148.48. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 153.88 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 142.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 150.75. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 142.18. Second support is May's low crossing at 136.25.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.22 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.02 is the next downside target.  



July sugar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 11.12 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 13.03 is the next upside target. 



July cotton closed unchanged on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 81.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.77 would confirm that a low has been posted.

Comments
By metmike - June 21, 2018, 5:16 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Tallpine!


I noted that you stated that the stochastics and RSI are turning bullish for corn and have turned bullish for beans.

All we need now is for these rains to start shrinking.............and the week 2 maps to maintain the "dome" and we can start going higher. 

7 day rains below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1529615576