gold and pm stocks have formed a wedge over the last couple months.
getting ready to break out?
i was thinking gold might spend several months bouncing around between 2000, and 1900 range. maybe i'm wrong.
we may go higher sooner than i thought.
seasonal average is up in sept, down in oct, then up after oct.
With so many countries producing more fiat currency to cover their increasing spending, how can it be otherwise?
this may not apply for short term traders,... but... the main thing to watch is this... negative interest rates. gold does well when rates on bonds are lower than inflation.
if it looks like inflation is going lower, and interest rates are going up. then it will be time to get out of gold for a while.
as long as 10 yr bonds pay under 1%, and inflation is 2% or 3%, then gold will trend higher.
if long bonds start paying 4%, and inflation is only 2%, then i will stay away from gold. (or maybe sell out of the money calls on any rally).
will we get a breakout, or a fakeout?
still too far above the 200dma. if we break solidly below the 50dma, then we may go down to test the 200dma.
gold needs to go (and stay) above 2010 to confirm an upside breakout.
Gold and silver will break-out for real this year. While the exact day can be tough, it should be in September.
The question is how high on the next move up? I would think $2,500 this year is doable.