KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 4, 2020
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +1255K; previous +1763K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 9.9%; previous 10.2%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.39)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.24%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.6%; previous +4.78%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +301K)
Private Payroll (previous +1462K)
Participation Rate (previous 61.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
Monday, September 7, 2020
N/A Marianas: Labor Day
N/A U.S. Labor Day. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow posted a key reversal down with today's sharply lower close. The Dow fell over 800 points as Apple lead the tech selloff as this sector ran out of momentum and dragged the rest of the market lower. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,106.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends this summer's rally, February's high crossing at 29,568.57 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29,199.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28,106.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,057.39.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as a sell off in Apple shares led tech stocks sharply lower on the day.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,574.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 12,465.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,574.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,009.61.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as today's sharp sell off triggered spill over selling across the market in general. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3427.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3588.05. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3427.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3288.10.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed closed up 9/32's at 179-05.
September T-bonds closed higher for the fifth day in a row on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-19 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 174-29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-19. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 175-05. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes closed up 40-pts. At 139.265.
September T-notes closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, August's high crossing at 140.130 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 138.070 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 21st high crossing at 139.235. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 138.230. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday's decline below the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.57. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this year's decline, the July 30th low crossing at $39.00 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $43.78. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is today's low crossing at $41.25. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $39.00.
October heating oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the June 29th low crossing at $117.88 marks a downside breakout of the the July-September trading range. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $131.92. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $133.94. First support is today's low crossing at $113.84. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $112.57.
October unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 130.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 129.41. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 130.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.90. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at 106.14.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.496 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If October extends this week's decline, the August 12th low crossing at 2.228 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off July's low, the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.743. Second resistance is the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.173.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at 93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at 93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.43. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 91.72. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The September Euro closed slightly higher on Thursday while extending the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 120.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 120.83. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.43.
The September British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the August 24th low crossing at 1.3056 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3639 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3483. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3639. First support is the August 24th low crossing at 1.3056. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2895.
The September Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near-term. Closes below the August 20th low crossing at 1.0921 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1.1117. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 20th low crossing at 1.0921. Second support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881.
The September Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 76.96. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.80.
The September Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off August's high, the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 0.0952. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1907.50 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1882.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.
September silver closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the August 25th low crossing at 26.130 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 29.915. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is the August 25th low crossing at 26.130. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 22.973.
September copper closed lower on Thursday as it extends Tuesday's key reversal down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 288.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 322.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 305.84. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 322.93. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 293.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 288.89.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.05-cents at $3.53 3/4.
December corn closed lower on Thursday as traders dismissed today's strong export data and instead focused on the many uncertainties still surrounding this year’s crop production potential. The last full week of the current marketing year saw corn exports of 3.9 million bushels for old crop sales plus 94.1 million bushels of corn for new crop sales for a total of 98.0 million bushels. Total sales for the 19/20- marketing year reached 1.678 billion bushels, which was down 13% below last year’s pace. Corn export shipments were even more disappointing as they were down 55% below the prior four-week average to 18.3 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 8.8 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.43 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.72. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.54. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.43 3/4.
December wheat closed down $0.04 1/4-cents at $5.54.
December wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.25 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.46 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.25 3/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $4.76 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If December extends the rally off August's low, the June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.52 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.52 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down a $0.00 1/4-cent at $5.47 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.37 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.26.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.04 1/4-cents at $9.66 1/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Thursday as Another solid round of export sales helped to extend the rally off August's rally. Old crop sales came in at 3.2 million bushels, while new crop sales rose to 64.8 million bushels, for a total of 68.0 million bushels. That brought total soybean export sales to the upper end of trade estimates, which ranged between 36.7 million and 69.8 million bushels. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $9.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.16 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.68 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $9.82 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.38 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.16 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $2.40 to $312.60.
December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $317.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $300.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $314.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $317.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $300.90. Second support is the August 24th low average at $296.00.
December soybean oil closed down 18-pts. at 33.35.
December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.01.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $2.63 at $59.03.
October hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $62.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $59.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $62.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $51.32.
October cattle closed down $0.45 at $104.03.
October cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July 15th low crossing at $102.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $110.91. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $98.50.
October Feeder cattle closed down $0.90-cents at $138.55.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.26. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is today's low crossing at $137.73. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.13 would confirm that a short-term top.
December cocoa posted a key reversal down on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.