INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 4, 2020, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, September 4, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. August U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +1255K; previous +1763K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 9.9%; previous 10.2%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.39)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.07)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.24%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.6%; previous +4.78%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +301K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +1462K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 61.4%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



Monday, September 7, 2020 



  N/A              Marianas: Labor Day



  N/A              U.S. Labor Day. Financial markets closed


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's huge decline, which was led by Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Zoom Video Communications. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,610.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 12,465.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,610.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,045.00.



The September S&P 500 was slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Thursday's sharp decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3428.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3524.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3428.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3293.96. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range he stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 174-29 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-19. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 175-05. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.



September T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Friday's low, August's high crossing at 140.130 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.131 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 140.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 138.230. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the July 30th low crossing at $39.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $42.57 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $43.78. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at $46.44. First support is Thursday's low  crossing at $40.22. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $39.00.  



October heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the June 12th low crossing at $112.57 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $125.24. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $131.92. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $112.57. Second support is the May 29th low crossing at $105.70.  



October unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $129.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $130.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.09. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14.    



October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 2.415 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.743. Second resistance is the November-2017 high crossing at 2.815. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.415. Second support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $91.74. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.



The September Euro was steady to slightly lower in overnight trading while extending the July-September trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $120.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.55.



The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 24th low crossing at 1.3056  would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3639 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.3483. Second resistance is the February-2019 high crossing at 1.3639. First support is the August 24th low crossing at 1.3056. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2912.  



The September Swiss Franc was lower in overnight trading as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0856 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1116. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the August 20th low crossing at 1.0921. Second support is the August 12th low crossing at 1.0881. Third support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0856.  



The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 76.96. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.91. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.86.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at 0.0934 would renew the decline off July's high. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0925.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at $1865.00 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1910.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1865.00.  



September silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $26.130 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $29.915. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $26.130. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973. 



September copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.8953 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0598. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9438. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.8953. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range below the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.45 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.45 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.40 1/4.      



December wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $5.60 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.65. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.48 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.26 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight . The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.70 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.55.          



December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.27 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.39. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.27 3/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends this summer's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, the December 2019 high crossing at $9.82 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.44 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $9.69 1/2. Second resistance is the December 2019 high crossing at $9.82 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.21 1/4.  



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $317.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $302.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $315.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $317.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $307.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $302.20.   

   

December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 32.92. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.14. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $2.63 at $59.03. 



October hogs gapped up and closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $62.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $59.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $62.58. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $54.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $51.32.     



October cattle closed down $0.45 at $104.03. 



October cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July 15th low crossing at $102.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.86 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $110.91. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at $115.09. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $98.50.     



October Feeder cattle closed down $0.90-cents at $138.55. 


October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.26 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $144.26. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is today's low crossing at $137.73. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.        



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.13 would confirm that a short-term top.   



December cocoa posted a key reversal down on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.                 



October sugar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-April-decline crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.              



December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.              

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 4, 2020, 3:24 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!

Alot of movement in many markets right now.


Weather usually does not play a key role in prices in September.


Too late in the growing season. In the middle of the heating/cooling season.

By metmike - Sept. 4, 2020, 3:51 p.m.
Like Reply

Previous threads:

Wild ride for the grains right now. Weather has just about been played out.

-2% for corn, -3% for beans on the crop condition earlier.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58454/



Natural gas:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58125/


Exports:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58449/


Freeze watch:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58606/