Happy Labor Day Weather
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Started by metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:23 p.m.

Hello September 7th

Iowa finally gets a huge rain the next 2 days..........but its too late to help the crop much now. It will slow early corn harvesting down a bit in the central cornbelt but not excessive or damaging..........but the extended forecast period looks dry. 

Cool period coming up and just cold enough for a light freeze in the High Plains and N.Plains on Tue/Wed AM.................see low temps below.  Probably warming back up in  week 2 but not anomalous heat.

                Freeze Watch September 2, 2020-            


Latest COVID-19 numbers. ..........new positive cases peaked OVER a month ago....deaths also made a 2nd peak(at much less than 50% of the April peak).


 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.

Reasons to keep being thankful here in 2020!



Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"      

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

                                                            Southern Florida NE Gulf N of 25N E of 87WGulf from 22N to 25N E of 87W including Straits of Florida NW Gulf including Stetson BankN Central Gulf including Flower Garden Banks Marine SanctuaryW Central Gulf from 22N to 26N W of 94WCentral Gulf from 22N to 26N between 87W and 94W Atlantic from 27N to 31N W of 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 70W and 77WAtlantic from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70WBahamas N of 22N including the Cay Sal BankAtlantic from 22N to 27N E of Bahamas to 70W Tropical N Atlantic from 15N to 19N between 55W and 60WCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean N of 18N between 76W and 85W including the Cayman BasinCaribbean approaches to the Windward PassageAtlantic S of 22N W of 70W including approaches to the Windward PassageNewport/Morehead City, NCBrownsville, TXCorpus Christi, TXHouston/Galveston, TXNew Orleans, LALake Charles, LAMobile, ALTallahassee, FLTampa, FLMiami, FLKey West, FLFlorida KeysMiami, FLMelbourne, FLJacksonville, FLCharleston, SCWilmington, NCBaltimore/Washington, DCWakefield, VAPhiladelphia/Mt. Holly, PA/NJNew York, NYBoston, MAGray/Portland, ME Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington MECoastal Waters from Schoodic Point ME to Stonington ME out 25 NMWaters from Eastport ME to Stonington ME from 25 to 40 NMNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganNorthern MichiganEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayEast Central Wisconsin - Green BaySouthern and Southeastern WisconsinNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitNorthern OhioWestern New York - BuffaloWestern New York - Buffalo Northern MichiganLos Angeles, CASan Diego, CASan Francisco Bay Area/Monterey, CAEureka, CAMedford, ORPortland, ORSeattle, WALos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaLos Angeles AreaSouth Central CaliforniaSan Francisco AreaWestern NevadaNorth Central CaliforniaNorthwest California CoastSouthwest Oregon and Northern CaliforniaNortheast Oregon and Southeast WashingtonNorthwest OregonNorthwest WashingtonEastern Washington and Northern IdahoSouthern Nevada, Southeastern California and Northwestern Arizona - Las VegasSouthwestern California - San DiegoCentral Arizona and California DesertsSoutheast ArizonaNorthern ArizonaUtahNorthern and Northeastern NevadaSouthwestern Idaho and Eastern OregonSoutheastern IdahoWestern Montana and Central IdahoCentral Montana - Great FallsNortheastern MontanaSoutheastern MontanaWestern WyomingSoutheastern Wyoming and Western NebraskaNortheastern ColoradoWestern Colorado and Eastern UtahSoutheastern ColoradoNorthern and Central New MexicoSouthern New Mexico and extreme Western Texas - El PasoTexas and OklahomaLubbock and South Plains TexasWestern Texas and Southeastern New MexicoWestern South Dakota and Northeastern WyomingNorthwestern Kansas and East Central Colorado - GoodlandCentral Nebraska - North PlatteNorth Central Kansas and South Central NebraskaSoutheastern South Dakota, Southwestern Minnesota, and Northwestern IowaNorthern and Northeastern South DakotaWestern North DakotaEastern Nebraska and Southwestern Iowa - Omaha ValleyNortheastern KansasSoutheastern KansasSouthwestern Kansas - Dodge CityCentral OklahomaEastern Oklahoma and Northwestern ArkansasDallas and Fort WorthCentral Texas - San AngeloAustin and San Antonio TexasCorpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TexasSouthern TexasTexas - Houston/GalvestonSoutheast Texas and Southwest LouisianaNorthern Louisiana and Eastern Texas - ShreveportArkansasSouthwestern MissouriNorthwestern MissouriCentral IowaSouthern MinnesotaNortheastern North Dakota and Northwestern MinnesotaNortheast Minnesota and Northern WisconsinSouthwestern Wisconsin, Southeastern Minnesota, and Northeast IowaEastern Iowa and Northwestern Illinois - Quad CitiesEastern Missouri - West Central IllinoisWestern Tennessee, Eastern Arkansas and Northern Mississippi - MemphisCentral MississippiSoutheastern LouisianaMiddle TennesseeNorthern AlabamaCentral AlabamaMobile - PensacolaWest Central FloridaEast Central FloridaPanhandle of Florida and Southwestern GeorgiaNortheast Florida and Southeast GeorgiaNorthern and Central GeorgiaLow Country of South Carolina and GeorgiaNortheastern South Carolina and Southeastern North Carolina - WilmingtonCentral South Carolina and CSRAWestern North Carolina and Northwest South CarolinaEastern TennesseeEastern KentuckyCentral KentuckySouthern Illinois and Indiana, Southeastern Missouri and Western KentuckyCentral and East Central IllinoisCentral IndianaNortheastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana - ChicagoSouthern and Southeastern WisconsinEast Central Wisconsin - Green BayNorthern MichiganNortheast Michigan - GaylordNortheast Michigan - GaylordSoutheastern Michigan - DetroitSouthwestern MichiganNorthern Indiana and Northwestern OhioSouthwestern Ohio Northern KentuckyWest VirginiaWestern Virginia, Southeast West Virginia, and Northwest North CarolinaCentral North Carolina - RaleighEastern North CarolinaEastern Virginia, Southern Maryland and Northeast North CarolinaWashington D.C., Central Maryland, Northern Virginia, Eastern West VirginiaWestern Pennsylvania, East Central Ohio and Extreme Western MarylandNorthern OhioCentral PennsylvaniaNew Jersey, Delaware, and Southeastern PennsylvaniaNew York City and Surrounding AreasSouth Central New York and Northeastern PennsylvaniaWestern New York - BuffaloEastern New York and Western New England AreasBoston and Surrounding AreasNorthern Vermont and New YorkSouthern Maine and New HampshireNorthern Maine Gulf of Maine to the Hague LineGeorges Bank between Cape Cod and 68W north of 1000 fathomsSouth of New England between the Great South Channel and Montauk Point to 1000 fathomsSouth of Long Island between Montauk Point and Sandy Hook to 1000 fathomsHudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon to 1000 fathomsBaltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light to 100 NM offshoreCape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light to 100 NM offshoreCurrituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras to 100 NM offshoreCape Hatteras to Cape Fear to 100 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N to 1000 FMGeorges Bank between 68W and the Hague LineEast of 69W to the Hague Line between 1000 fathoms and 39NEast of 69W and south of 39N to 250 NM offshoreBetween 1000 fathoms and 38.5N west of 69WBaltimore Canyon to 69W east of 1000 fathoms and south of 38.5N to 250 NM offshoreBaltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon between 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreHatteras Canyon to Cape Fear 100 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Fear to 31N east of 1000 fathoms to 250 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 60 NM and 150 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA between 60 NM and 150 NM offshoreCape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreCape Lookout to Florence, OR between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreFlorence, OR to Point St. George between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint St. George to Point Arena between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Arena to Pigeon Point between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas between 150 NM and 250 NM offshorePoint Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSanta Cruz Island, CA to 120W between 150 NM and 250 NM offshoreSan Clemente Island, CA to Guadalupe Island from 60 NM Offshore west to 120W                                                                                                                                                                  

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/                 Go to "hazards"                                                                                     





 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning





Highs today and tomorrow.





By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:26 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Chilly this week Central US, to the middle of the week, then gradually warming back to normal by next weekend.

Hot in the West, still very warm S/Southeast this week.











By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:27 p.m.
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Daily low temperatures for days 1-7 below.

Around freezing in the High Plains and N.Plains on Tue/Wed.

GFS lows days 1-3 below:

Weather Model

Weather Model

Weather Model

Lows days 3-7 below:








By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:30 p.m.
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Temperatures compared to Average for days 3-7

We have passed the hottest time of year climatologically by 6+ weeks.

 The heat is out West................and Southeast.

Chilly period  in the Plains to Midwest early/mid next week!!! Warming back to average after that. Still very warm hangs on in the Southeast.








By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:31 p.m.
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Surface Weather features days 0-1-2 then days 3-7:


Front with rains, followed by a massive Canadian High.

Days 0-1-2 below:

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Sun 18Z

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure and Weather valid Mon 12Z

Forecast of Fronts/Pressure valid Tue 12Z

Days 3-7 below:


By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:32 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.


 IA will finally get some rain the next 2 days............too late to help the crops much.

Day 1 below



Day 2 below:



Day 3 below



Days 4-5 below:



 Days 6-7 below:



7 Day Total precipitation below:





By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:32 p.m.
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Excessive rain potential.

Dry soils in the central belt can handle a lot of rain right now.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast





By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:

Not much severe weather!


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook




By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:35 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precStatic mapStatic map

By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:36 p.m.
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Current Dew Points

Humid up to the Ohio River. Very dry Upper Midwest/N.Plains.

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of Normal"






Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change





By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:37 p.m.
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Drought Monitor maps:

Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

April 23: LOOKY_LOOKY!  For the first time this year, its gotten dry enough for a few (small)areas in the Upper Midwest/Western Cornbelt to report slight drought.

April 30: Drought increased a bit......Plains and U.Midwest.

May: 7:  Drought increased a bit from KS westward.

May 14: Drought increased a bit again, now, parts of Iowa have slight drought(this dry weather is why planting is ahead of schedule). Rains are coming to the dry spots in the forecast though.......bearish.

May 21:  A bit more drought in ND.

May 28: Not much change

June 4: Drought increases a tad in the N.Plains and Upper Midwest.

June 10: Drought worsening in the S.Plains could be part of the La Nina signal!!

June 17: Drought got worse again in the S.Plains and yellows/slight drought emerged in new locations............all of Indiana.

June 24: Drought help in some places(KS) but increased a bit in others(ND).

July 1: Drought shrunk in Ohio Valley(I got 5.5 inches of rain in sw INdiana!) but not much change elsewhere. Surprised it didn't shrink more in IN/IL where some places(Bowyer) got great rains recently.

July 8: The main change was an increase over w.IA and e.NE. At the end of July with the hot/dry weather coming up, the S.Plains drought should expand into the S.Midwest to the Eastern Cornbelt.

July 15: Drought increased again over IA/MO/IN/OH. In july, evaporation usually exceeds rainfall, so some of this is seasonal. Hot temps coming up will accelerate evaporation.

July 22: Some Recent rains in IN did not make the cutoff.

July 29: Main dry spots are W.Iowa and IN/OH. Upcoming rains prospects good for ECB.

August 6: Drought got much worse in Iowa.

August 13: Looks like rains on Monday made no difference to W.IA drought(only around 1 inch).

August 20: IA is very dry.........into N.IL now.

August 27: Drought got worse in IA!!

September 3:  Drought worse in IA and IL, N.IN!


Drought Monitor for conus


Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:41 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

Sunday:  Wide spread on where to put the heat ridge. Most have it in the Southwest but how far east does it extend?  Fast/strong jet stream coming over the top of the heat ridge. Trough in the Midwest/Northeast? or does heat out west spill across the country into the Plains/Midwest? Dry pattern for early harvesting.

Labor Day: Fast flow/jet stream with massive differences in the position of the major features...heat ridge,....potential deep trough...........or just zonal flow.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 22, 2020 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:44 p.m.
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Individual GFS ensemble solutions for the latest 0z run at 360 hours. These are the 500mb upper level maps:

Sunday: Heat ridge west-hot, troughing possible downstream.  Strong jet stream. Likely dry unless northwest flow becomes more  active in the Midwest.  A few solutions have the heat ridge farther east. 

Monday: Ridge West to trough east preferred (with heat in the West but low confidence. Likely to be dry.





By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:46 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

Sunday: At 7 days, Solid Positive anomaly West, negative anomaly Midwest. Positive anomaly grows during week 2 and shifts slightly farther east(heat spreading east a bit?) Weak Negative anomaly fills in/shifts east.

Monday: Negative anomaly in the N/Central region fills in this week and shifts east. Positive anomaly out West grows a bit and also shifts to the N.Rockies.



2 weeks out below

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product





By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:49 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO and PNA here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks


Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Discussions, starting with the oldest  below.


Sunday: AO is bouncing around thru 2 weeks. NAO is mostly positive, which makes it tough for cool air in the Midwest this week to push very far east. PNA, like the others has a wide spread in solutions but is close to zero. The wide spread suggests uncertainty/low confidence. 


Monday: Very wide spread in the NAO that drops from positive to near 0(some negative late week 2).  Same thing with the PNA. Much uncertainty and variation in the location of the large scale features and location/position of the strong jet stream. 

By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:50 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

 Updated daily just after 2pm Central.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:51 p.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:51 p.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 7, 2020, 3:52 p.m.
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NWS Des Moines@NWSDesMoines

Good riddance August!  Not only were you dry, the only time there was widespread rainfall, you had to include historically destructive storms.  On to September...  Image is rainfall departure from Aug 1st - Aug 30th via the Iowa Environmental Mesonet #iawx