KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 10, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 850K; previous 881K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -130K)
Continuing Claims (previous 13254000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -1238K)
8:30 AM ET. August PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%: previous +0.5%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.5%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. July Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous -1.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3455B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +35B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 498.401M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -9.362M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 234.859M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.32M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 177.52M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.675M)
Refinery Usage (previous 76.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 16.979M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.64M)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 11, 2020
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2484.9K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1850.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 585.4K)
8:30 AM ET. August CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.4%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.2%; previous +1%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)
8:30 AM ET. August Real Earnings
10:00 AM ET. August Online Help Wanted Index
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Services
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET. August Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3.7)
Employment Idx (previous 2.4)
New Orders Idx (previous -1.7)
Prices Received (previous 4.7)
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous +0.7%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)
Petroleum Prices (previous +7.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%
Latest Wk, Y/Y%
9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 70.6%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +2.1)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight ahead of a European Central Bank decision and press conference in which expectations are for the central bank to raise concerns about the rise of the euro. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the August 11th low crossing at 10,845.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,788.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,788.10. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the August 11th low crossing at 10,845.50. Second support is the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3312.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3459.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3459.65. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3312.49. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3236.03.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range he stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off August's high, the June 16th low crossing at 174-29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 179-15. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 183-06. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 175-05. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 174-29.
September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews last-Friday's decline, the August 28th low crossing at 138.230 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 140.005 would renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 140.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.130. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.230. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.070.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.71. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $36.13. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.
October heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.83 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $116.83. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.55. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $106.05. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.
October unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it remains poised to extend the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at $106.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.37. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $129.41. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $108.51. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14.
October Henry natural gas was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.225 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 2.605 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. Second resistance isthe November-2017 high crossing at 2.815. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.328. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.225.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $94.00. First support is September's low crossing at $91.74. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The September Euro was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading while extending the July-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.07 would confirm a downside breakout of the July-September trading range. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $120.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $120.83. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $116.88.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2951 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3221 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3178. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3221. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2951. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2710.
The September Swiss Franc was higher in overnight trading as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0878 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1.0829. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1116. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1178. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0878. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0829.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.02 is the next downside target.Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 76.96. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.02. Second support is the August 7th low crossing at 74.63.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the August-September trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at 0.0934 would renew the decline off July's high. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0960. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0968. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0934. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0930. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0925.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1919.10 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at $1865.00. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1919.10. Second support is August's low crossing at $1865.00.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $25.985 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. First resistance is August's high crossing at $30.190. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $25.985. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973.
December copper was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9333 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0605. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9876. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9333.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight and trading above the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $3.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.41 3/4.
December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline high crossing at $5.69 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.61 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.54 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.32. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, the December 2018 high crossing at $9.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.62 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the December 2019 high crossing at $9.82 3/4. Second resistance is the December 2018 high crossing at $9.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.62 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.36 1/4.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $306.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $317.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $312.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $306.50.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.04.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $1.35 at $61.25.
October hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $62.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.26 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $61.73. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $62.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $57.03. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $55.26.
October cattle closed down $0.65 at $105.70.
October cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July 15th low crossing at $102.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.51. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $98.50.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.03-cents at $138.83.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $143.09. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is today's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.38 would confirm that a short-term top. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.26 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Wednesday after testing support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.42. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Weather is not a factor here.
A ton of very unusual things affecting numerous markets right now.
Massive demand in the grains and lower dollar, along with dry August weather having taken away yield, especailly for beans.
I'll have the South America weather soon.
NG has COVID demand destruction coming back but production still suffering but also, has come too far too fast.
Weather is neutral and usually not big in September anyway.