Any guesses?
39
Came in at +70. Bearish.
I would have thought bearish as well, but apparently the market is thinking differently or it's just some profit taking after the report.
Yeah, Jim. It's bearish. And you're probably right, given the anticipation earlier. Which is why I wait until they make up their minds after the report comes out.
Time for the fun to begin. Short from 2.367.
Yea, I think there is a lot of room to the downside. We shall see.
Thanks Mark and Jim!
Markets Thursday Morning from Natural Gas Intelligence
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 70 Bcf natural gas storage for the week ending Sept. 4, aligning with forecasts and easing early pressure on Nymex natural gas futures. Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey found estimates ranging from 60 Bcf to 73 Bcf, with a median of…
September 10, 2020
for week ending September 4, 2020 | Released: September 10, 2020 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: September 17, 2020
+70 BCF
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/04/19) | 5-year average (2015-19) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/04/20 | 08/28/20 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 805 | 789 | 16 | 16 | 732 | 10.0 | 756 | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 953 | 924 | 29 | 29 | 853 | 11.7 | 849 | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 216 | 212 | 4 | 4 | 181 | 19.3 | 194 | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 308 | 304 | 4 | 4 | 275 | 12.0 | 297 | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,243 | 1,225 | 18 | 18 | 955 | 30.2 | 1,021 | 21.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 335 | 331 | 4 | 4 | 198 | 69.2 | 246 | 36.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 908 | 895 | 13 | 13 | 756 | 20.1 | 774 | 17.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,525 | 3,455 | 70 | 70 | 2,997 | 17.6 | 3,116 | 13.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,525 Bcf as of Friday, September 4, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 70 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 528 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 409 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,116 Bcf. At 3,525 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
These were the temps for that 7 day period ending last Friday. Warm Southeast, cool Midwest. I would have also guessed like you, a bit lower than the actual injection.
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386
Latest Release Sep 10, 2020 Actual70B Forecast68B Previous35B
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2020 | 10:30 | 70B | |||
| Sep 10, 2020 | 10:30 | 70B | 68B | 35B | |
| Sep 03, 2020 | 10:30 | 35B | 34B | 45B | |
| Aug 27, 2020 | 10:30 | 45B | 47B | 43B | |
| Aug 20, 2020 | 10:30 | 43B | 43B | 58B | |
| Aug 13, 2020 | 10:30 | 58B | 57B | 33B |
Stop set at 2.345.
Stop activated. Out at 2.344. At least I'll eat supper. Pretty bad for such a bearish number.
You got stopped out THEN it dived. I hate it when that happens. :(
Nice trade mark! Thanks for sharing it with us.
Don't worry about being stopped out. You almost have to put in a protective stop when you get ahead in ng in this current market, especially when doing a day trade or you could let a $500 profit turn into a $500 drawdown in a flash, especially on the day of an EIA report that has increased volatility.
If this were January and the price had just spiked from cold weather that had a pattern change to warm, you could let it ride thru the volatility with no stop because in the end, no way is the market going to keep going higher after it turns from a pattern change to warmer.
I think that the extreme gyrations...........more than usual recently are intended to take out traders with tight stops.
Whenever you get taken out early by a spike thru your stop, then it goes your way, without you, it hurts..............emotionally. You will feel bad now, unless the price gets back above the price you were stopped out at..........then you will feel good about the trade...........right?
If it never does that and we are lower yet tomorrow, you will be calculating how much money that you would be ahead if not stopped out on Thursday Afternoon.
Then, next week, if it goes even lower, you will still be doing that. At least I would and most traders would.
That's fine and normal but the sooner you or me or anyone gets back to pretending that trade never existed and looking at the market objectively, independent of that, the better....for most of us.
Regardless, good going today in predicting the direction of price movement after the report and sharing that with us.
I always set a "break even" stop after a trade starts moving in my direction. It's usually just enough to cover comms and a little profit cushion. Has saved my cookies several times. But this one was set due to an establishment of resistance that corresponded to an area of congestion earlier before the report came out. And with the way the market had to churn it's way down. (Gyrations?) Seemed to be a lot of difference of opinions, probably due to recent news of increasing export in the near term. The following spike up justified it.
Nonetheless, a profit is a profit no matter how large or small. Tomorrow is another day.
I think Nov will see $2.80 before the next NG update. We can short it again. :)
Thanks Mark and Jim!
Friday weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58962/
Cool and bearish for natural gas.
Markets NGI
Natural gas futures traded lower on Friday amid concerns about lofty inventory levels and forecasts for cooler weather across much of the Lower 48. The October Nymex contract settled at $2.269/MMBtu, down 5.4 cents day/day. November fell 5.4 cents to $2.744. The prompt month is down more than 40 cents from the high reached in…
September 11, 2020
The temperature forecast is bearish in the key high population centers of the East but we have a big bullish surprise that was not there on Friday.
Soon to be hurricane Sally that will be tracking to the LA coast as a minimal hurricane early Tuesday.
This WILL cause some shut in production. Not strong enough to do any damage, just some temporary shut ins and maybe affect LNG exports.
So my guess is a modestly higher open but still not outside of the range on Friday. Bearish temps will keep it from doing that.
Natural Gas Intelligence early Monday:
Natural gas futures were up sharply in early trading Monday as forecasters were tracking a veritable scatterplot of named tropical storms in the Atlantic, including one that had forced production shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Meanwhile, estimates of daily liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas volumes rose over the weekend, outperforming analyst expectations…
September 14, 2020
metmike: Just a temporary spike higher from Sally(which will track east of the main energy production areas in the GOM but still cause several days of shut in production. Extended temps still cool in the East region.
Natural gas futures were trading slightly higher early Tuesday as Hurricane Sally, hovering just off the northern Gulf Coast, forced production shut-ins and threatened to cause “historic flooding” in the region. The October Nymex contract was up 1.1 cents to $2.321/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned early Tuesday that…
September 15, 2020
The longer Sally churns next to the coast, the worse the conditions are going to be. I don't think all of it has been dialed into the market yet. But not too much higher. Gonna make thursday's report fun to trade.
12 Rigs running and I have one.
From NDIC Directors cut:
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2020-08-14.pdf
Oil:
June prod 890,109 Bbls /D
May prod 859, 362 Bls/D
All Time high 1,519,037 Bbls/D Nov 2019
Gas
June prod 1,973,289 Mcf/D
May prod 1,928,122 Mcf/D
All time high 3,145,372 Mcf/D Nov 2019
Price at the wellhead:
Oil ~$29/Bbl
Gas $1.78/ Mcf
Significant shut ins ~40%
Price way to low to cover full cycle costs. Only rigs running are on pads with significant sunk costs including water lines, oil lines, gas lines, and surface equipment installed.
Thanks very much Joe!
Great to get the view from somebody actually in the business.
Sally has quit moving, and so has NG.
Thanks Mark!
Looks like Sally is creeping along N/NE at around 3 mph, which means the same areas will bombarded with heavy rains.
NGI after the close on Tue:
Natural gas futures posted a second consecutive day of gains Tuesday as liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels remained strong and production was curtailed as slow-moving Hurricane Sally was expected to impose torrential rains and flooding. The October Nymex contract settled at $2.362/MMBtu, up 5.2 cents day/day. November rose one-tenth of a cent to $2.741. Spot…
September 15, 2020
metmike: Forecasts warming up a bit helped too but weather is not the main driver right now.
Sally is no longer a threat to the major wells. The flooding worries will be far east of production facilities, so will not hamper them much once Sally makes landfall. Putting in my short orders.
November heading to $2.50? I think so.
It might get that low in a week. Market is exhausted for today.
One would think the market was exhausted. My perception is the market is acting like NG is WAY over priced and is driving the price down as hard and as fast as it can. A couple weeks ago I posted that NG can correct quickly and painfully. I think that is what we are witnessing.
The way NG is falling out of bed, we might see $2.50 November, today!
Jim. You are right! And I don't think we will see a bullish report today.
Yea....that was bearish. From what I read this morning, 90 bcf was a worst case scenario
| Release Date | Time | Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2020 | 10:30 | 89B | 79B | 70B | |
| Sep 10, 2020 | 10:30 | 70B | 68B | 35B | |
| Sep 03, 2020 | 10:30 | 35B | 34B | 45B | |
| Aug 27, 2020 | 10:30 | 45B | 47B | 43B | |
| Aug 20, 2020 | 10:30 | 43B | 43B | 58B | |
| Aug 13, 2020 | 10:30 | 58B | 57B | 33B |
for week ending September 11, 2020 | Released: September 17, 2020 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: September 24, 2020
+89 BCF Bearish!
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (09/11/19) | 5-year average (2015-19) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 09/11/20 | 09/04/20 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 825 | 805 | 20 | 20 | 756 | 9.1 | 779 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 983 | 953 | 30 | 30 | 888 | 10.7 | 882 | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 221 | 216 | 5 | 5 | 187 | 18.2 | 197 | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 310 | 308 | 2 | 2 | 278 | 11.5 | 299 | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 1,276 | 1,243 | 33 | 33 | 969 | 31.7 | 1,036 | 23.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 349 | 335 | 14 | 14 | 200 | 74.5 | 251 | 39.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 927 | 908 | 19 | 19 | 770 | 20.4 | 785 | 18.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3,614 | 3,525 | 89 | 89 | 3,079 | 17.4 | 3,193 | 13.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 3,614 Bcf as of Friday, September 11, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 89 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 535 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 421 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,193 Bcf. At 3,614 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2015 through 2019. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
Temperartures for the 7 days used for this report.
Very warm Southeast, chilly Upper Midwest/N.Plains.
The way prices are going, could October head back to the summer lows? I thinkst it might be.....in my best old English.
Anything is possible in this environment.
We continue to collapse lower this evening.
NGI after the Thursday close:
Natural gas futures plunged Thursday amid intensifying imbalance concerns and escalating worries about looming storage surpluses as summer cooling needs dwindle. The losses occurred as Hurricane Sally’s destruction imposes uncertainty, and the full impacts of other demand drivers this fall also remain unclear. The October Nymex contract dropped 22.5 cents day/day and settled Thursday at…
The NG market is still looking at storing an additional 600 Bcf over last year. That’s a lot of gas.
Thats true on the storage Jim.
The fundamentals were light years different too a year ago.
The market at this point, is looking at potential draws vs the 5 year average and last year coming up.
NGI this morning:
Natural gas futures continued to come under downward pressure near the front of the curve in early trading Friday, with a larger-than-expected inventory build and tropical cyclone-related demand destruction weighing on prices. The October Nymex contract was down 4.9 cents to $1.993/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Conversely, January was up 4.3 cents to $3.272.…
September 18, 2020
Are we surprised? After all, it is 2020. Nothing "normal" about this year. If I've learned anything this year, it's to be on my toes. Nothing is "normal" this year.