Grains Friday-charts up
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Started by metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:28 a.m.

To keep moving higher, we need to either get past all this rain coming up or take some out it out of the forecast.....we might be getting there with week 2 looking drier to me:

Total accumulation

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762

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By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:31 a.m.
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Corn is down 50c from the highs, beans down $1.50 from the highs. Price charts now up!



Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   


3 month below


1 year below

                   

5 year below                

                   

 10 year below                

                   


Soybeans: Wider perspective:


Soybeans 3 months below

                   



Soybeans 1 year chart below   

                   
                    


Soybeans 5 years below



Soybeans 10 years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand

                   
By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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Crop ratings: Everybody knows they are outstanding. They won't get much better..........but the crop can keep getting closer to being made, which can still be bearish. Also, if week 2 and July forecasts cool off it can be bearish.......unless rains really shut down.........then it turns bullish.

Corn actually went up +1%  GD/EX. Not a surprise considering how much rain fell in the key corn areas.

Beans went down -1% GD/EX, not a surprise considering MO/AR have missed all the rains and they grow more beans than corn. MO has 19% P/VP, which is what would have happened to other states if the huge rains did not come in the nick of time.


Cotton plunged more.......-4% in the GD/EX but +5% in the P/VP for the 2nd week in a row, with 26% of the crop in this category.  The TX/OK crop is doing horrible but also AL has 15% P/VP. Huge acres planted this year but the crop is just 38% GD/EX vs 61% last year.

Big rains in the north caused the Spring Wheat crop rating to soar +8%, to a near record 78% vs 41% GD/EX last year.  

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-06-18-2018.txt


By metmike - June 22, 2018, 10:48 a.m.
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Last 0z Canadian model ensemble average and individual members.........shifting heat ridge farther west?

Weak trough far northeast?

Not all agree and there is room for something  extreme with the dome scenario. The latest solution is a DRIER pattern for the Cornbelt:


384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 08, 2018 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0

                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 22, 2018, 2:24 p.m.
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When corn and beans don't move in tandem during the growing season, it's challenging to assign weather as the main reason for a strong move in one of them.


In this case, the beans were almost 20c higher but corn was a few ticks lower. What sort of weather would play a role.

If you look at my comprehensive discussion on heat fill, it makes sense that forecasts today..............cooling off for July, including long range outlooks would be bearish corn but not so for beans.

Hot temps, starting in mid July(maybe a bit earlier in some locations) will really start hurting corn yields.


Todays longer range forecast took out alot of heat. This is bearish corn. That cooler pattern is also drier.......this is bullish beans.

Cool and dry, with as much moisture that we have now is going to be great for corn pollination and filling.........as long as we still have some rains. Not saying it will be cool.........just that cool is actually more bearish than more rain right now. 


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/5754/