INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 11, 2020, 8:05 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, September 11, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2484.9K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1850.9K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 585.4K)



8:30 AM ET. August CPI



                       CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)



                       Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.6%)



                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +2.5%)



                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous -0.4%)



                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.6%)



                       CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.2%; previous +1%)



                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +1.6%; previous +1.6%)



8:30 AM ET. August Real Earnings



10:00 AM ET. August Online Help Wanted Index



10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Quarterly Services



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)



2:00 PM ET. August Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt



Tuesday, September 15, 2020 



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 3.7)



                       Employment Idx (previous 2.4)



                       New Orders Idx (previous -1.7)



                       Prices Received (previous 4.7)



8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes



                       Import Prices (previous +0.7%)



                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.2%)



                       Petroleum Prices (previous +7.8%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%



9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +3.0%)



                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 70.6%)



                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +2.1)



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)



  N/A              U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,133.36.The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off September's high, the August 11th low crossing at 10,845.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,704.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,704.28. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the August 11th low crossing at 10,845.50. Second support is the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00.



The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3311.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3455.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3455.02. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3311.56. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3236.03. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range he stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 181-17. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 171-16.



December T-notes were steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews last-Friday's decline, the August 28th low crossing at 138.185 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 139.290 would renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $41.43. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $36.13. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.  



October heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 106.01. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $115.37 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $115.37. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $120.65. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 106.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.  



October unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at $106.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $119.82. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $129.41. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $108.51. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14.    



October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.232 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 2.605 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. Second resistance isthe November-2017 high crossing at 2.815. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.232. Second support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228.      



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target.Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $93.93. First support is September's low crossing at $91.75. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading while extending the July-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, the  50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.29 would confirm a downside breakout of the July-September trading range. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $120.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47. First support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.22.



The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2733 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3170 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3162. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3170. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Tuesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0913 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1.0859. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1138. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0913. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0859.  



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.08 is the next downside target.Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.08. Second support is the August 7th low crossing at 74.65.



The December Japanese Yen was mostly steady overnight while extending the August-September trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below August's low crossing at 0.0936 would renew the decline off July's high. If September renews the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0960 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0961. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0936. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0932. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0928.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $1922.20 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at $1865.00. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1922.20. Second support is August's low crossing at $1865.00.  



December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $25.985 would signal that a short-term top might be in or is near. First resistance is August's high crossing at $30.190. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $25.786. Second support is the 38% retracement level of March-August-rally crossing at $22.973. 



December copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9379 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0605. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9379. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.52 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.64 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.52 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.42.      



December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.40 1/4 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline high crossing at $5.69 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.40 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.30 3/4. 



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.63 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.63 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.55.          



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.33 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27 1/4.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's high and spiked above January's high crossing at $9.82 3/4. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, the February 2017 high crossing at $10.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the December 2018 high crossing at $9.85. Second resistance is the February 2017 high crossing at $10.06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.67. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.40 1/2.  



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $307.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $317.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $314.40. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $307.50.   

   

December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.13.

 

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 11:26 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!


Weather is not a major factor in the markets.

USDA report out at 11 am will show huge production cuts for corn and beans........but the market has been trading this since the previous report in early August.