KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 776.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 317.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 3415.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.1%)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous +1.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +1.9%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
10:00 AM ET. September NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (expected 78; previous 78)
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (expected +0.1%; previous -1.1%)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 500.434M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.033M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 231.905M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.954M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 175.845M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.675M)
Refinery Usage (previous 71.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.678M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.699M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 0.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 0.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 0.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate – 2023
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 0.25)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 0.00)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 0.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
4:00 PM ET. July Treasury International Capital Data
Thursday, September 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 880K; previous 884K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0K)
Continuing Claims (previous 13385000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +93K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1823.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 3161.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 484.4K)
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 14.0; previous 17.2)
Prices Paid (previous 15.3)
Employment (previous 9.0)
New Orders (previous 19.0)
Prices Received (previous 12.4)
Delivery Times (previous 7.3)
Inventories (previous -1.9)
Shipments (previous 9.4)
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.45M; previous 1.496M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -3.1%; previous +22.6%)
Building Permits (expected 1.52M; previous 1.495M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +1.7%; previous +18.8%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3525B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +70B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 18, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -168.5B; previous -104.2B)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 74.0; previous 72.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 66.5)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.5)
10:00 AM ET. August Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.4%)
Leading Index (previous 104.4)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
10:00 AM ET. August Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
Monday, September 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. August-September CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 1.18)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 3.59)
N/A U.S. Treasury Market Annual Conference
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,639.69 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off September's high, the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00 is the next downside target. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,639.69. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the July 24th low crossing at 10,301.00. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 9,728.75.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3325.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3427.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3427.76. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3325.91. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3236.03.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range he stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 181-17. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 139.290 would renew the rally off August's low. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 139.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Tuesday's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $40.76. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.24. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $36.13. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.
October heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-week's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.16. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 106.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.
October unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at $106.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $118.78. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $129.41. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.55. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14.
October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.254 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.487 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.487. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.254. Second support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target.Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is September's low crossing at $91.75. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The December Euro was higher in overnight trading while extending the July-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47 is the next upside target. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.29 would confirm a downside breakout of the July-September trading range. First resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.55. Second support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.29.
The December British Pound was higher in overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3123 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2733 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3123. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0937 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1.0859. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0937. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0859.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews last-Tuesday's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.21 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.07 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.21. Second support is the August 7th low crossing at 74.65.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight while extending the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, July's high crossing at 0.0961 is the next upside target. Closes below August's low crossing at 0.0936 would renew the decline off July's high. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0961. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0936. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0932. Third support is July's low crossing at 0.0928.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1904.60 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at $1865.00. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1904.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1865.00.
December silver was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $25.985 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.308. First resistance is August's high crossing at $30.190. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $25.786. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.308.
December copper was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9542 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.0605. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9542. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.56 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $3.71. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.56 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.42 3/4.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.33 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.46 1/2 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline high crossing at $5.69 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.33. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24.
December Kansas City wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.67 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.67 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.56.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to fractionally higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at $5.19 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at $5.19 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.81 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is February's high crossing at $10.06. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.81 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.54 1/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $310.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this summer's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $330.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2019-2020-decline crossing at $324.30. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $330.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $317.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $310.60.
December soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 33.88. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.44.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $1.03 at $65.65.
October hogs closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $57.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $66.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $61.24. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $57.76.
October cattle closed up $0.50 at $107.38.
October cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends today's rally, the reaction high crossing at $108.95 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July 15th low crossing at $102.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $108.95. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $111.15. First support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at $98.50.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.30-cents at $143.90.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $142.95 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $143.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the August 11th low crossing at 11.22 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed sharply higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.44 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.