KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 880K; previous 884K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0K)
Continuing Claims (previous 13385000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +93K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1823.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 3161.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 484.4K)
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 14.0; previous 17.2)
Prices Paid (previous 15.3)
Employment (previous 9.0)
New Orders (previous 19.0)
Prices Received (previous 12.4)
Delivery Times (previous 7.3)
Inventories (previous -1.9)
Shipments (previous 9.4)
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.45M; previous 1.496M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -3.1%; previous +22.6%)
Building Permits (expected 1.52M; previous 1.495M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +1.7%; previous +18.8%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3525B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +70B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 18, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -168.5B; previous -104.2B)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 74.0; previous 72.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 66.5)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.5)
10:00 AM ET. August Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.4%)
Leading Index (previous 104.4)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
10:00 AM ET. August Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
Monday, September 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. August-September CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 1.18)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 3.59)
N/A U.S. Treasury Market Annual Conference
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow renews the decline off September's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 26,727.96 is the next downside target. Close above Wednesday's high crossing at 28,367.77 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 29,199.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 27,430.10. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 26,727.96.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Thursday as it extends a two-week old trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 10,354.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,597.36 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,597.36. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is today's low crossing at 10,904.25. Second support is the38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 10,354.13.
The December S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as it extends a two-week old trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 3228.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3416.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3416.74. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is Friday's low crossing at 3323.30. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 3228.49.
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December T-bonds closed closed up 4/32's at 176-10.
December T-bonds closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the June 5th low crossing at 171-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-26. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 181-17. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes closed up 15 pts. at 139.130.
December T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the June 5th low crossing at 137.025 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 140.110 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 137.025.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed higher on Thursdayas extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews this month's decline, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.26. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $36.13. Second support isthe June 12th low crossing at $35.25.
October heating oil closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off the September 8th low crossing at $106.05 is the next upside target. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.62 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.62. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $122.95. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $106.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.98 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the July 30th low crossing at 106.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 123.15. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 129.41. Third resistance is 62% retracement level of the January-March-decline decline crossing at 130.29. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 107.55. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at 106.14.
October Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.252. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, the July 31st low crossing at 1.941 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.454 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.454. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.605. Third resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. First support is the August 12th low crossing at 2.228. Second support is the July 31st low crossing at 1.941.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed lower on Thursday while extending the July-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at 93.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at 93.92. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 94.72. First support is September's low crossing at 91.75. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The December Euro closed higher on Thursday while extending the August-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at 117.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 121.47 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 120.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 121.47. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.64. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 117.29.
The December British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3116 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2733. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3116. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.2497 is the next downside target.
The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1241 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0901 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1138. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 crossing at 1.1241. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.0901. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0859.
The December Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past seven days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.25 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 77.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.25. Second support is August's low crossing at 74.38.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday as extending this week's rally above the August-September trading range crossing at 0.0953. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 0.0961 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0944 wold confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.0958. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0961. First support is August's low crossing at 0.0936. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 0.0932.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past six-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1904.60 would open the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1882.10. If October resumes the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at $2078.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1882.10. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.
December silver closed lower on Thursday as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 25.985 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 30.190. Second resistance isthe 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 30.727. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 25.985. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.464.
December copper closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 295.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 306.05. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 295.93. Second support is August's low crossing at 279.60.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.03-cents at $3.74 3/4.
December corn closed higher on Thursday confirming yesterday's key reversal up as it extended the rally off August's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.84 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.58 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $3.77 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.84 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.58 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.43 1/4.
December wheat closed up $0.14 3/4-cents at $5.56 3/4.
December wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.47 signal that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's rally, September's high crossing at $5.68 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.68 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.13-cents at $4.88.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the June's high crossing at $4.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.56 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $4.90 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.56 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.10-cents at $5.41 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4 signals that short-term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, the August's 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at $5.19 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.16 1/2-cents at $10.27 3/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Thursday following yesterday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $10.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.60 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $10.32 1/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $10.40. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.89 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.60 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $9.50 to $335.20.
December soybean meal closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought are remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the June-2019 high crossing at $336.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $312.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $335.90. Second resistance is the June-2019 high crossing at $336.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $320.70. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $312.40.
December soybean oil closed down 6-pts. at 34.85.
December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday after testing the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, the December 2019 high crossing at 36.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. Second resistance is the December 2019-high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.57.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $1.48 at $66.70.
October hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $59.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $66.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $63.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $59.14.
October cattle closed up $0.05 at $106.78
October cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $111.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.77 would signal that short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $107.55. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $111.15. First support is September's low crossing at $103.37. Second support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.20-cents at $141.23.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. If October resumes the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at $150.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $144.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the August 11th low crossing at 11.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.38 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.