KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 17, 2020
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 880K; previous 884K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0K)
Continuing Claims (previous 13385000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +93K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1823.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 3161.8K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 484.4K)
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 14.0; previous 17.2)
Prices Paid (previous 15.3)
Employment (previous 9.0)
New Orders (previous 19.0)
Prices Received (previous 12.4)
Delivery Times (previous 7.3)
Inventories (previous -1.9)
Shipments (previous 9.4)
8:30 AM ET. August New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.45M; previous 1.496M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -3.1%; previous +22.6%)
Building Permits (expected 1.52M; previous 1.495M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected +1.7%; previous +18.8%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3525B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +70B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 18, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -168.5B; previous -104.2B)
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 74.0; previous 72.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 66.5)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 82.5)
10:00 AM ET. August Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +1.3%; previous +1.4%)
Leading Index (previous 104.4)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
10:00 AM ET. August Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
Monday, September 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. August-September CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 1.18)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 3.59)
N/A U.S. Treasury Market Annual Conference
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,582.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,582.33. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 9,702.96.
The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3415.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3415.91. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3328.76. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends this month trading range. The high-range he stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-24. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 181-17. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes were slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 139.290 would renew the rally off August's low. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 139.000 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August's high, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.28. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $36.13. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.
October heating oil was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.08 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $122.77. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 106.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.
October unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at $129.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $114.71 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $123.50. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $129.41. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $107.55. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14.
October Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, the July 20th low crossing at 1.768 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.426 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.426. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.926. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 1.768.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target.Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is September's low crossing at $91.75. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The December Euro was slightly lower in overnight trading while extending the July-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.29 would confirm a downside breakout of the July-September trading range. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.75. Second support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.29.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3105 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2733 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3105. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the September 8th low crossing at 1.0901 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1.0859. If December resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241. First support is September 8th low crossing at 1.0901. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0859.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.29. Second support is the August 7th low crossing at 74.65.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, July's high crossing at 0.0961 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0944 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 0.0961. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0944. Second support is the August 28th low crossing at 0.0936.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1904.60 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at $1865.00. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1904.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1865.00.
December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $25.985 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.625. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $30.190. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $25.786. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.625.
December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9639 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.1025. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9639. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.60 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.79 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.60 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.51.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at $5.68 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-decline high crossing at $5.69 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.34 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.01 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $4.95. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.01 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.57.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at $5.49 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $5.22 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $5.49 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at $5.19 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. The high-range trade sets the0 stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.96 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $10.44. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.96 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.67 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally to a new contract high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $342.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $323.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $339.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $342.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $323.30. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $314.30.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, last-December's high crossing at 36.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. Second resistance is last-December's high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.70.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $1.48 at $66.70.
October hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $59.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $66.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $63.23. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $59.14.
October cattle closed up $0.05 at $106.78
October cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $111.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.77 would signal that short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $107.55. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $111.15. First support is September's low crossing at $103.37. Second support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65.
October Feeder cattle closed down $1.20-cents at $141.23.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. If October resumes the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at $150.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $144.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the August 11th low crossing at 11.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the December-June-decline crossing at 13.58 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.38 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!