Tropics September 20, 2020 onward
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Started by metmike - Sept. 20, 2020, 12:10 p.m.

  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



    
               
Active Storms | Marine Forecas


                    


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By metmike - Sept. 20, 2020, 12:12 p.m.
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Beta is the one to watch(mainly a threat of heavy rains because of the very slow movement that next few days)


  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents


[Key Messages]

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The graphics below will allow us to monitor Beta after it develops, then  over the next week.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15

                                    


        thplains_loop.php



Go to: Most Recent Image


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

By metmike - Sept. 20, 2020, 12:14 p.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

 Maybe a foot of rain along the far E.TX coast, close to the LA border!


Day 1 below


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

  

                                    

By metmike - Sept. 20, 2020, 12:16 p.m.
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Previous tropical threads:

               August 31, 2020            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/58500/


      Tropics August 17, 2020            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57763/


By metmike - Sept. 20, 2020, 12:19 p.m.
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We are obliterating the record for earliest named storms, on our way to a record for the season, which WAS 28, set in 2005:

List of Atlantic hurricane records

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records


  Indicates a tie for the earliest/next earliest formation date

 Based on data from: U.S. NOAA Coastal Service Center - Historical Hurricane
NameDate of formationNameDate of formation
Storm #EarliestNext earliest
Earliest formation of north Atlantic tropical cyclones by storm number
1UnnamedJanuary 3, 1938UnnamedJanuary 4, 1951
2UnnamedMay 17, 1887UnnamedMay 26, 1908
BerylMay 26, 2012
3CristobalJune 2, 2020ColinJune 5, 2016
4DanielleJune 20, 2016DebbyJune 23, 2012 (12z)
5EdouardJuly 6, 2020EmilyJuly 11, 2005
6FayJuly 9, 2020FranklinJuly 21, 2005
7GonzaloJuly 22, 2020GertJuly 24, 2005
8HannaJuly 24, 2020HarveyAugust 3, 2005
9IsaiasJuly 30, 2020IreneAugust 7, 2005
10JosephineAugust 13, 2020JoseAugust 22, 2005
11KyleAugust 14, 2020KatrinaAugust 24, 2005
12LuisAugust 29, 1995LeslieAugust 30, 2012
13MariaSeptember 2, 2005MichaelSeptember 4, 2012
LeeSeptember 2, 2011
14NateSeptember 5, 2005MariaSeptember 7, 2011
15OpheliaSeptember 7, 2005 (06z)UnnamedSeptember 19, 1936
16PhilippeSeptember 17, 2005OpheliaSeptember 21, 2011
17RitaSeptember 18, 2005PhilippeSeptember 24, 2011
18StanOctober 2, 2005SebastienOctober 21, 1995
19UnnamedOctober 4, 2005TonyOctober 24, 2012
20TammyOctober 5, 2005UnnamedNovember 15, 1933
21VinceOctober 9, 2005N/A
22WilmaOctober 17, 2005N/A
23AlphaOctober 22, 2005N/A
24BetaOctober 27, 2005N/A
25GammaNovember 18, 2005N/A
26DeltaNovember 23, 2005N/A
27EpsilonNovember 29, 2005N/A
28ZetaDecember 30, 2005N/A


                                    


Image





By metmike - Sept. 20, 2020, 12:21 p.m.
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We are 10 days past the historical peak for named storms in the Atlantic basin but still a long way to go, even as named storms typically drop off fast here.




By metmike - Sept. 20, 2020, 12:32 p.m.
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Water temperature anomalies are still on the warm side in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

You can see the little cool spot along the Gulf Coast where Sally churned up some cooler, sub surface sea water. 


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sst/rsst_atl_anom_loop.php


By metmike - Sept. 21, 2020, 2:34 p.m.
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Tropical Storm Gamma is likely in the next couple of days..........way out in the Atlantic and no threat.



By metmike - Sept. 23, 2020, 7:17 p.m.
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Suddenly, there are no tropical systems in the Atlantic basin!


  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

By WxFollower - Oct. 2, 2020, 5:36 p.m.
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The quiet period is over. There are now 2 systems being followed:

1) TD 25: doesn't look to ever get that strong, especially if it crosses the Yucatan. and likely would have little direct effect on the US. However, it still needs to be watched all around the Gulf, regardless.

2) A wave now in the E Caribbean. Due to TD 25 as well as it not currently looking impressive due to strong shear, this one is likely not getting the attention it probably should. Most models do make this at least a TD in the Gulf at some point. The 12Z Canadian, though an inferior model, makes it as strong as a hurricane. The 0Z Euro made it a solid TS though the 12Z is much weaker with perhaps barely a TD. A decent number (though well under 50% overall) of GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensemble members make it a Gulf TS or even a H mid to late next week that in many cases subsequently landfalls on the US anywhere from Galveston, TX, to Sarasota, FL, mainly during 10/10-15 with the bulk of the hits between central LA and the Big Bend of FL.



 
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.


1. A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 
 Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Five are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
Forecaster Berg

By metmike - Oct. 2, 2020, 6:29 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

By metmike - Oct. 5, 2020, 12:24 p.m.
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Tropical Storm Delta is getting all the attention in the GOM right now.

Expected to become a cat. 2 hurricane over the next 3 days.

With low shear and very warm water temperatures, the potential is there for it to get even stronger than that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aww4HT5g7ig


cone graphic

By metmike - Oct. 5, 2020, 12:32 p.m.
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Delta is the 26th named storm in 2020.

The record for named storms is 28, set in 2005. We WILL break that record.

Scroll up to see more hurricane details.

Monday Morning Update: Tropical Storm Delta forms in Caribbean; Tropical Storm Gamma update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uuc2K41jSQ

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2020, 12:13 a.m.
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The updated forecast this evening has ramped up Delta to a major, cat. 3 hurricane with winds of 120mph.  See graphics above.

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2020, 1:39 p.m.
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Delta is now a major hurricane with 130 mph winds. It will hit the Yucatan Peninsula hard on Wednesday after possibly reaching 140 mph today. Scroll up for details. 

The only good news is that the Yucatan Peninsula will be exactly in the left side, 90 degrees from the track of the hurricane, where the speed of the entire entity SUBTRACTS from the velocity of the surface winds(they ADD to the winds on the right side).

So the speed of  Delta of around 17 mph in the northwest direction will subtract from the actual winds circulating around the storm. This will lower a 130 mph wind gust, for instance to 113 mph. 

Then, Delta heads into the Western Gulf, possibly regaining all the strength lost from encountering the land mass on its left side.

Just before hitting the Gulf Coast, Delta is expected to track into slightly cooler waters and weaken a bit but should still be a dangerous hurricane late Friday, when that happens. ...making landfall late Friday Night or early Saturday.

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2020, 1:49 p.m.
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Here's a diagram illustrating the principle described verbally on the previous page:


Areas to the east/northeast/right of Delta or any hurricane(the dirty side of the hurricane) because of the counterclockwise spin, will  have the speed of the storm adding to the velocity of the wind.

On the west/southwest/left side of Delta or any hurricane, the opposite occurs. Winds will be less by the amount of  forward speed of the hurricane.

If Delta is traveling at 17 mph in the northwest directions for instance, we subtract 17 mph from the hurricane winds on its west/southwest/left side with respect to the ground/ocean. So a 130 mph gust actually becomes a 113 mph gust.

This describes what will be happening on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Wednesday.


Image result for right side of hurricane adds to winds graphic

                                    


            

By metmike - Oct. 6, 2020, 1:55 p.m.
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When Delta hits the Gulf Coast very early Saturday or late Friday, the same affect will occur on the left and right side of the hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

cone graphic

By metmike - Oct. 7, 2020, 2:29 p.m.
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Delta has weakened after hitting land today but will strengthen again, to 120 mph in the GOM, but not quite as strong as yesterdays forecast.

Also speeding up a bit, so landfall will be earlier on Friday than the previous forecast.


Delta should weaken before hitting the Gulf Coast but still be a very dangerous hurricane. 


The rapid speed will keep rainfall totals from being too heavy vs a slow moving hurricane.

By metmike - Oct. 8, 2020, 11:17 a.m.
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Delta is at 105 mph late this morning. Expected to strengthen to 115 by Friday, then weaken before hitting the coast. We/you will be able to track Delta in real time below, using constantly updated surface isobars(lines of equal pressure) and radar images for the Gulf Coast and vicinity. 



https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15

                                    


      


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                    


By metmike - Oct. 8, 2020, 1:38 p.m.
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By patrick - Oct. 8, 2020, 6:43 p.m.
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Sorry, but Tanya Tucker did it better.

Throwback Thursday!  Yet another big hurricane about to hit where Rita did, back in 2005.

By metmike - Oct. 8, 2020, 9:17 p.m.
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 Patrick,

I believe you and thanks for the additional link.

The hurricane season of 2005 and 2020 do have quite a lot of similarities.  

By metmike - Oct. 9, 2020, 2:54 p.m.
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Delta has weakened a tad today and will hit the western Coast of LA later today as a cat. 2 hurricane with winds just above 100 mph.


See more details by scrolling above.

By WxFollower - Oct. 9, 2020, 5:28 p.m.
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Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
300 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...3 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST 
OF LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal 
Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of more 
than 4.5 feet above ground level. 

The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point 
recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind 
gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). 

A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been reported at the Jack 
Brooks Regional Airport near Port Arthur, Texas, within the past 
hour. 

A wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h) has been observed at Nederland, 
Texas. 

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cameron, Louisiana, recently 
reported a wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). 


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 93.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

 It is very unfortunate that this is hitting very close to the same areas hit by H Laura just 6 weeks ago!

 Regarding commodities

1. This, like most W Gulf hurricanes, is having a significant impact on NG in terms of both supply and demand. On the supply side, shutins are bullish and LNG export reductions are bearish. Perhaps these are near a wash? The news sources really have a hard time with this due to the mixed messages.

 On the demand side, it isn’t as bearish as it would be earlier in the season because the storm is not going to reduce overall US CDDs to the extent it would be doing during the normally hotter summer and early autumn. But it is still going to produce widespread power outages, which are bearish to some extent. The question then is going to come down to extent of outages and length of them. One thing this isn’t doing is hitting a major city head-on, which would have caused more outages and been more bearish.

  2. Another commodity that will be/is being significantly impacted by H Delta is cotton due to, ironically enough, the Mississippi “Delta” region! Truth is stranger than fiction. That region is one of the two major CT regions in the SE US. The reason this is such a big deal now is that most CT has open bolls waiting to be harvested. Delta’s impact on “the Delta” will be in two ways:

- The first way being very heavy rainfall along the Mississippi River in LA, MS, and some of AR. In addition, big growing areas further N and NE like the rest of N and C MS, W TN, and NW AL will be impacted by lesser but still unwanted heavy rains this weekend.

 - The other way being high winds. Most vulnerable will be the unharvested LA crop since winds will be highest there. However, winds will likely still be high enough (TS force) to cause some damage even further N and NE on some of the MS and AR crops, which have so far harvested only a small portion.





By metmike - Oct. 9, 2020, 10:11 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

Hurricane Delta makes landfall on Louisiana coast - live updates

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/hurricane-delta-track-path-latest-news-updates-2020-10-09/


Hurricane Delta, now a Category 2 storm, made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, on Friday evening,

By metmike - Oct. 13, 2020, 12:24 p.m.
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Back to quiet in the tropics!

By WxFollower - Oct. 13, 2020, 5:05 p.m.
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But maybe not quiet for more than 7-10 days as model consensus suggests a potential late October W Caribbean genesis.

By metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:24 a.m.
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Thanks muck Larry, please keep us posted.

By metmike - Oct. 17, 2020, 12:51 p.m.
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A disturbance around 500 miles southeast of Bermuda right now is likely to be come the next named storm, pretty far out in the Atlantic with no threat to the US mainland/East Coast after that. 

Nothing else out there currently. 

By metmike - Oct. 19, 2020, 12:42 p.m.
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Epsilon will likely become a hurricane but is no threat to the US. There are no other storms in the Atlantic Basin right now.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/191456.shtml?


Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week.  While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. 


cone graphic


By metmike - Oct. 23, 2020, 4:25 p.m.
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Looks like tropical storm Zeta will form in the next 2 days, possibly threatening the far Southeast GOM and Southern Florida after that.

This will be the 28th named storm of the year and tie the record for most named storms set back in 2005.

That year, the 28th storm occurred on December 28th, which was actually outside of the normal June 1 - Dec 1 tropical storm season. 

It's extremely likely that we will have a couple more storms but major hurricanes are less and less likely in November and there has never been a MAJOR hurricane that hit the US in November. Ocean temperatures just are not warm enough anymore and wind sheer picks up. 


Remembering some of the most notorious November Atlantic hurricanes

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/remembering-some-of-the-most-notorious-november-atlantic-hurricanes/602213

By WxFollower - Oct. 24, 2020, 10:46 p.m.
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On October 13th, I said:

"But maybe not quiet for more than 7-10 days as model consensus suggests a potential late October W Caribbean genesis."

--------------------------------------------------------------

 And here we are with TD 28, soon to be Zeta, as Mike posted.

 What earlier appeared to be a possible threat to mainly S FL as far as the US is concerned has shifted much more to, where else, the N Gulf coast again! As of now, I think the highest risk is from an unseasonably very late E LA to the FL Panhandle. I wouldn't rule out FL Big Bend at all.  I'd think S FL is pretty safe now but that's not set in stone yet.

 What do I think this means for commodities? Well, OJ, which may have been a bit threatened when the S FL threat was higher, has little threat as of today. However, this may mean some of CT is threatened again. I think that this threat would probably be more significant if it goes into the NE Gulf rather than toward the Delta because they have a lot more not yet harvested in S AL, GA, SC, and NC and they weren't affected by Delta too much. But that is just a guess. Who knows? Perhaps getting hit by still another storm in the Delta region would be worse, especially getting still more heavy rain? 

 And then there's the hard to understand with regard to Gulf storms NG again.


 And believe it or not being as late as it is, this may still not be the last US threat. Perhaps another W Car threat in about 2 weeks?? But that's highly speculative, way too far out for modeling to be reliable, and it will be Nov. 7th by then. So, enough about that for now.

 

 

By metmike - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:07 p.m.
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Thanks much Larry!


Zeta is expected to become a minimal hurricane and take the path shown below.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024045.shtml?cone#contents

cone graphic


I was thinking that with November forecasts turning warmer and ng closing on its lows Friday, that we might gap lower on the open and it becoming a very bearish,  downside breakaway gap.

But this tropical system was predicted to be almost no threat to the natural gas industry in the GOM as of Friday afternoon and that has changed. 

There will likely be some shut ins, which is bullish as far as less production but also bearish affects on less exports.


15 years ago, production shut ins were entirely bullish since we didn't have much fracking production then and this change would cause higher prices briefly, until the hurricane past or after a brief spike higher dialed in any lost production.

15 years ago, we didn't have exports. That part of the equation in 2020 makes hurricanes in this location bearish from lost exporting. 


How do you think this will affect the market Larry? Others?

By metmike - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:23 p.m.
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I doubt there will be much affect on cotton.  

Not enough rain or wind at this point.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1566925971

By WxFollower - Oct. 24, 2020, 11:36 p.m.
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 Mike asked how do I think this storm will affect NG? I honestly have no idea. As I've said, its previous Gulf storm patterns have made little sense to me. 

By WxFollower - Oct. 25, 2020, 3:04 a.m.
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Mike,

 I should also tell you that due to the current and projected very slow movement for the next day or so along with the real potential for a further south center relocation and the time of year, the uncertainties are much higher than normal. Therefore, the projected track may change greatly even by late tomorrow. If so, the threat to the N Gulf could go down. We'll see.

By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
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Thanks Larry,

See the links/discussion on the potential impact in this thread, which we can use to comment on the effects of natural gas.

                NG 10/14+            

                            27 responses |                

                Started by WxFollower - Oct. 14, 2020, 6:26 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60064/

By metmike - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:46 a.m.
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Latest update about the same and not that threatening with the potential minimal hurricane.

By WxFollower - Oct. 25, 2020, 11:55 p.m.
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 I'm suspecting Dec CT is up near session highs of  +0.33 now, despite the Dow futures down over 150 ,due to TS Zeta and even with it being not far from longterm highs. Let's see whether it holds up through tomorrow. 

By metmike - Oct. 26, 2020, 12:28 a.m.
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That makes sense Larry, with Cl also lower at the moment.


I noted the NHC bumped up the intensity 10 mph to 85 mph and shifted the track a tad farther west, so a slightly bigger threat to energy interests in the GOM.

I still don't see enough rain or wind to cause much damage to the cotton crop but the market doesn't care what I think.


By WxFollower - Oct. 26, 2020, 1:33 a.m.
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 Regarding the Delta crop, it may be more a matter of that it doesn't want to see any more heavy rains anytime soon so that what CT has been waterlogged would be able to finally dry put and also bleach out some of the discoloration caused by storm Delta's heavy rains. So, maybe it is putting in additional risk premium for this possibility in case heavy rains shift west into the Delta region.