KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, September 21, 2020
8:30 AM ET. August-September CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 1.18)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 3.59)
N/A U.S. Treasury Market Annual Conference
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Seasonal weakness is likely to continue possibly into the U.S. election. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,534.53 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,534.53. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 10,354.13. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 9,702.96.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3410.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3410.37. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3524.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3228.49. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 3049.78.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends this month trading range. The high-range he stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-23 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-23. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 181-17. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above September's high crossing at 139.290 would renew the rally off August's low. Closes below the September 4th low crossing at 139.000 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 138.135.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.27 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the June 12th low crossing at $35.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.27. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is September's low crossing at $36.13. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.25.
October heating oil was lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $122.50. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 106.01. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $100.45.
October unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at $129.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $115.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $123.82. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $129.41. First support is September's low crossing at $107.55. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at $106.14.
October Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, the July 20th low crossing at 1.768 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.403 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.403. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.743. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.926. Second support is the July 20th low crossing at 1.768.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21 is the next downside target.First resistance is the August 3rd high crossing at $93.92. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is September's low crossing at $91.75. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The December Euro was lower in overnight trading while extending the July-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the August 3rd low crossing at $117.29 would confirm a downside breakout of the July-September trading range. If December renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $120.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at $121.47. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $117.85. Second support is the August 3rd crossing at $117.29.
The December British Pound was lower in overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3090 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 1.2733 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3090. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3483. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 8th low crossing at 1.0901 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 1.0859. If December resumes the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 1.1241. First support is September 8th low crossing at 1.0901. Second support is August's low crossing at 1.0859.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 77.28. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.33. Second support is the August 7th low crossing at 74.65.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0947 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.0963. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of March's decline crossing at 0.0969. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0950. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0947.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 8th low crossing at $1904.60 would open the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at $1865.00. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $1904.60. Second support is August's low crossing at $1865.00.
December silver was lower overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 8th low crossing at $25.985 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.761. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $30.190. Second resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2020 decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $30.727. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $25.786. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $25.761.
December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2293 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9677 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.1210. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.9677. Second support is August's low crossing at 2.7960.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.62 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.79 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020 decline crossing at $3.84 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.62 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.51.
December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.78 1/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $5.09. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.58.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.22 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. Second resistance is the March 27th high crossing at $5.54 1/4. First support is the September 24th low crossing at $5.19 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The low-range trade sets the0 stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $10.46 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.04. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.74 1/2.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance crossing at $354.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $326.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $343.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $354.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $326.10. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $316.70.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off April's low, last-December's high crossing at 36.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-decline crossing at 35.07. Second resistance is last-December's high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.81.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed down $0.20 at $66.50.
October hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off the July 31st low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $59.69 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $66.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $63.97. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $59.69.
October cattle closed up $0.63 at $107.40
October cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $111.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $106.11 would signal that short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $107.97. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $111.15. First support is September's low crossing at $103.37. Second support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.75-cents at $142.20.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $132.38 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $150.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $144.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the August 11th low crossing at 11.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.81 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off August' high, the July 24th low crossing at 11.48 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
The only factor for weather in grains is that it will be good for harvest and harvest pressure is coming up.
In ng, heating degree days from cold are more important than cooling degrees from heat, starting in very early October. The mild forecast is bearish but its almost impossible for weather forecasts to feature enough extreme temperatures to be bullish this time of year.