KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 24, 2020
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 850K; previous 860K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -33K)
Continuing Claims (previous 12628000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -916K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1609.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2457.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 336K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 898K; previous 901K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous +13.9%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.0)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3614B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +89B)
11:00 AM ET. Sept.Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 23)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 20)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 14)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 19)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, September 25, 2020
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +1.8%; previous +11.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +9.9%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +2.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.4%)
Monday, September 28, 2020
10:30 AM ET. September Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 8.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 3.1)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow posted posted a key reversal down as it extended the decline off September's high on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off September's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 26,464.30 is the next downside target. Close above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 28,364.77 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 29,199.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 29,568.57. First support is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 26,464.30. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 25,010.37.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 10,354.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,479.38 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,479.38. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,465.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10,656.50. Second support is the38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 10,354.13.
The December S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 3228.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3396.88 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3396.88. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3232.36. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 3228.49.
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December T-bonds closed down 6/32's at 176-16.
December T-bonds closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the August 28th low crossing at 173-16 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 177-20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 181-17. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 173-16. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 171-16.
December T-notes closed down 45-pts. at 139.155.
December T-notes closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, August's high crossing at 140.110 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the September 4th low crossing at 139.000 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 139.290. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 140.110. First support is the August 28th low crossing at 138.185. Second support is the June 5th low crossing at 137.025.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
November crude oil closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews this month's decline, the June 12th low crossing at $35.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $41.49. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $43.78. First support is September's low crossing at $36.58. Second support is the June 12th low crossing at $35.54.
November heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $123.66. First support is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $108.97. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $103.63.
November unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 124.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 121.42. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 124.62. First support is September's low crossing at 106.60. Second support is the July 30th low crossing at 105.01.
November Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.797 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends this month's decline, the July 31st low crossing at 2.404 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.841. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3.002. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.496. Second support is the July 31st low crossing at 2.404.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed higher on Wednesday confirming Tuesday's upside breakout of the July-September trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 94.72 is the next downside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 92.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 94.50. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at 94.72. First support is September's low crossing at 91.75. Second support is long-term support on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 90.21.
The December Euro closed lower on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's breakout below the August-September trading range crossing at 117.29. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 115.42 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 118.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 120.38. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 121.47. First support is today's low crossing at 116.71. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 115.42.
The December British Pound closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off September's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2502. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3049 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3049. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3488. First support isthe 38% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2733. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 1.2502.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1005 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1081. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0844. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 25% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 74.86 as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the July 20th low crossing at 74.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.96. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 76.97. First support is today's low crossing at 74.74. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 73.72.
The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0948 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-March high crossing at 0.0968 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0963. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March high crossing at 0.0968. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0948. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0945.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Wednesday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past seven-weeks.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $1975.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $1992.50. Second resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $2016.60. Third resistance is August's high crossing at $2078.00. First support is today's low crossing at $1848.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2020-rally crossing at $1775.80.
December silver closed lower on Wednesday marking a downside breakout of the August-September trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below August's low crossing at 23.800 confirmed a downside breakout of the August-September trading range. If December extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 20.953 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.875 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 29.235. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 30.190. First support is today's low crossing at 22.725. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 20.953.
December copper closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 296.96 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 279.60 is the next downside target. If December renewed the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 312.10. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 323.02. First support is today's low crossing at 294.50. Second support is August's low crossing at 279.60.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.00 3/4-cents at $3.68 1/2.
December corn closed fractionally lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.84 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.79 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $3.84 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.64. Second support is September's low crossing at $3.51.
December wheat closed down $0.09 3/4-cents at $5.48 1/4.
December wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.35 3/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If December renews the rally off June's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-June-decline crossing at $5.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $5.92 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.36. Second support is the reaction low crossing at $5.24.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.07 3/4-cents at $4.84.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If December resumes the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $5.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.26 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $4.59.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.06 3/4-cents at $5.33.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at crossing at $5.22 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the April 4th high crossing at $5.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $5.54 1/4. Second resistance is the April 4th high crossing at $5.67. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $5.22 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at $5.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed down $0.02 3/4-cents at $10.19 3/4.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.83 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends this summer's rally, monthly resistance on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $10.46 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $10.82 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.83 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $2.70 to $343.70.
December soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal up as it posted a new contract high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought are remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $354.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $320.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $348.60. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $354.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $330.90. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $320.90.
December soybean oil closed down 82-pts. at 32.78.
December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33.62 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.98 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off April's low, the December 2019 high crossing at 36.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 35.49. Second resistance is the December 2019-high crossing at 36.41. First support is today's low crossing at 32.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.98.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $1.00 at $69.33.
October hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it renewed the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $61.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $69.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $72.53. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $66.21. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $61.62.
October cattle closed up $0.78 at $107.25
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $111.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.98 would signal that short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $107.97. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $111.15. First support is September's low crossing at $103.37. Second support is the July 15th low crossing at $102.65.
October Feeder cattle closed up $0.85-cents at $141.48.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off last week's high, September's low crossing at $137.25 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $150.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $144.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $150.20. First support is September's low crossing at $137.25. Second support is July's low crossing at $132.38.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 10.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.40 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off Monday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.62 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-July-decline crossing at 27.14 is the next upside target.
October sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 13.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.37 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
December cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 67.31 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
Been been busy re mortaring all the bricks on our patio and with wifes medical situation.
Beans have been led higher by record demand from China recently and a poor/dry end to the growing season(pod filling).
The only years that I remember beans going higher in the 2nd half of September were years when early yield reports were shockingly low.
1993.............flooding year.
1995...........mid Sept freeze in IL/IN
2003 aphids along with hot/dry August
2010 heat fill for corn caused it to go higher in harvest from horrible yield reports but not sure what beans did in late Sept.
Nat Gas had an amazing day to the upside.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 9/20
By metmike - Sept. 23, 2020, 5:40 p.
"I'll stick with short squeeze. "
Thanks Jim
A short squeeze typically occurs when a stock or commodity becomes over valued in price(when supplies are low-the opposite of this situation) and they sell too early...........then traders have to cover when the price continues to new highs and they go under water.
It might happen near the contract expiration too as those traders are forced to cover their shorts before expiration.
However, a short squeeze would not happen near the low end of a recent trading range, when shorts have a profit already.
"I've been tied up all week but my opinion is that its being caused by an early season, big cold snap that will cause unseasonably high heating demand in the key, high population centers.
I've seen this happen several times before in early October.
The price move is not justified by these colder temperatures, especially at this time of year but there are a few other factors that caused this weather pattern change to be way over amplified in its affects on the market.
Extremely low prices, being oversold and still historically low rig counts.
In addition, cold waves early in the heating season are always more powerful than late in the season in inspiring speculators because they can portend an upcoming season defining pattern that has time to have create massive drawdowns which make a substantial cumulative drawdown after several months.
At the end of the season, the same pattern will actually turn bearish soon, as cooling degree days replace heating degree days.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 9/20
By metmike - Sept. 23, 2020, 5:53 p.m.
NGI after the close Wednesday:
Natural gas futures on Wednesday rebounded in force after a steep slump earlier in the week, bolstered by signs of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) recovery, forecasts of greater weather-driven demand and new storage estimates that indicated containment worries may have been overblown. The October Nymex contract popped 29.1 cents day/day and settled at $2.125/MMBtu.…
September 23, 2020
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 9/20
By Jim_M - Sept. 23, 2020, 6:19 p.m.
I stand corrected, but I still call BS on the rally.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NG 9/20
By metmike - Sept. 23, 2020, 7:06 p.m.
ing $3,000/contract more expensive today than yesterday.
Such is the case for commodity trading based on speculators mentality which usually doesn't focus on true value for the price on an individual day. ....especially natural gas.
Instead, its mob mentality that thinks "Is the price going higher? or is the price is going lower?"
If several items turn bullish at once, enough traders decide the price is going higher and not "the price is going to $2 or the price is going to $2.1....................just higher and the bids get more aggressive, offers pull back until the bullish surge in trader mentality subsides.
Upcoming expiration might have amplified the move too.
I just checked the charts and the 1.800 area that we just tested was super-mega support for NGV, so you have the added technical double bottom formation that added some ammo to traders mentality today.
Also, less than a month ago, NGV traded to $2.7 on similar fundamentals, so one can certainly make the case that the move down was way overdone and this snap back should be especially strong.